The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants will put a bow on Week 11 when these NFC squads square off for a "Monday Night Football" matchup at Raymond James Stadium. While Tampa Bay comes into this matchup atop the NFC South, the Bucs have been on a two-game losing skid over the last few weeks that has been sandwiched in-between the team's Week 9 bye. Last time out, they were limited to just 19 points against Washington as Tom Brady threw two first-quarter interceptions that helped put the Bucs in an early hole. Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off their bye and are looking to keep the positive momentum going after defeating the Raiders back in Week 9.
Below, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this primetime matchup has in store for us. We'll be taking a look at how the lines have moved throughout the week leading into Monday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
The early look at this line prior to Week 10 had the Bucs as a 12.5-point favorite against New York. However, that number started to dwindle immediately following Tampa Bay's loss to Washington, dipping to Bucs -11.5 and to -11 by Monday morning. That number has stood first throughout the week.
The pick: Buccaneers -11. I'm betting that the loss to Washington is a light-switch moment for Tampa Bay to recalibrate and get back on track rather than it snowballing into something bigger. Heading back to Raymond James Stadium will also be a positive development for the Bucs as all three of their ATS victories on the year have come at home. Over their last three homes games, the Bucs are outscoring their opponents by an average of 28.6 points and are averaging 43.6 points per game on offense. Each of those wins came against below-average teams, which is exactly the type of opponent they'll see in New York on Monday.
Key trend: Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
The total did shift a bit after opening at 50. It fell to 49.5 midweek but had since ticked back up to 50 on Friday.
The pick: Over 50. I slightly lean on the over, given that the Bucs own a league-leading 40.5 points per game average at home this season. New York has also been able to find the end zone with a little bit more success on the road (23.3 points per game) than at MetLife Stadium (17.2). With the Giants also set to have a number of injured players back for this contest, it does raise the ceiling for their offense and the scoring output for this game.
Key trend: Over is 6-1 in Buccaneers last seven home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Tom Brady props
- Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +120, Under -150)
- Passing yards: 296.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Total interceptions: 0.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
- Completions: 26.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Passing attempts: 37.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Longest passing completion: 37.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
Brady is averaging an eye-popping 4.5 touchdowns per game at home this season. Meanwhile, the Giants have allowed elite quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott) to throw for more than two touchdowns in games this season. With those figures in mind, we'll lean Over on Brady's passing touchdown prop, especially at +120.
Daniel Jones props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +140, Under -170)
- Passing yards: 240.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Total interceptions: 0.5 (Over -150, Under +120)
- Passing attempts: 34.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Rushing yards: 20.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Jones has only gone over this passing yards prop four times this season, but if the Giants are going to keep up with the Tampa Bay offense, the quarterback will likely need to drop back and throw it more than usual. This season, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 39.3 pass attempts per game (third-most in the NFL), which is only outdone by the league-leading 44.3 pass attempts by opposing signal-callers at Raymond James Stadium.
Player props to consider
Leonard Fournette total rushing attempts: Over 14.5 (-120). Prior to this two-game losing skid, the Buccaneers were feeding Fournette the football. On the season, he's averaging 12.4 rushing attempts per game, but if Tampa can build a lead, he's in line for a lot of second-half carries against a Giants run defense that is allowing 122.6 yards per game entering Week 11.
Rob Gronkowski total receiving yards: Over 29.5 (-115). Gronkowski is expected to make his return on Monday after missing time due to a rib injury. In the three full games he's played this season, he's easily gone over this receiving prop. As long as he officially gets the all-clear, Brady likely won't waste time going this favorite target.