The New York Giants are going to win the NFC East. They're going to host the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs to become just the third team (2010 Seahawks 7-9, 2014 Panthers 7-8-1) in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record.
This is what's going to happen because the Giants are the best team in the worst division in football, and it would be enough to let everyone keep their jobs.
The Giants beat the Bengals, 19-17, as Cincinnati started a quarterback who was on their practice squad a week ago. It wasn't an impressive or thorough victory, but without Daniel Jones for nearly the entire second half, New York made do.
Here's how the math works: All four teams in the NFC East will be favored in as few as one and as many as two games the rest of the season. The 4-7 Giants hold the tiebreaker over Washington as Philadelphia fades and Dallas is hapless.
I can see the Giants beating either Arizona or Cleveland (Weeks 14 and 15) and then topping Dallas in Week 17 for their first NFC East crown since 2011, when Daniel Jones was only 14 years old.
It was a wild Week 12 Sunday and there's a lot to go over. John Breech, Ryan Wilson and host Will Brinson break it all down on the Pick Six Podcast; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
The Giants' flaws are plenty. It's the NFC East. Their special teams gave up a kickoff return touchdown for the first time in five years, got pantsed on a fake punt and then gave up a 29-yard punt return to midfield in the final minute. Head coach Joe Judge, a former special teams coordinator, will have to shore that up this week moving forward.
But the Giants are playing the most consistent football in the division right now. With the exception of the Week 3 beatdown at the hands of the 49ers — one week after Saquon Barkley tore his ACL — New York has been in every game all season long. You are what your record says you are, and the Giants are absolutely a 4-7 football team.
But they have a stingy defense that is top 10 in the league in takeaways and added more to their total Sunday against the Bengals. Ever since the Week 5 tilt against the Cowboys, Jason Garrett has started to find a rhythm as a play caller. And Jones has been more willing to pick up first downs with his legs as the season has gone on.
Jones should be back for next week's game in Seattle, which will probably be a close loss for New York. And that's OK, but that's figured into the playoff math. In fact, it could very well be a Wild-Card Weekend preview, with the rematch coming at MetLife Stadium.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott will be in danger of losing both his coordinators at the end of the season. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier put on a clinic Sunday. Daboll has helped morphed Josh Allen into a fringe MVP candidate while Frazier just limited a potent offense to just 17 points. ... A loss like this for the Raiders to the Falcons shows they're pretenders. They went into this week sitting in the seventh seed facing a bad defense with an interim coach. But how, at this point in the season, can I believe in Las Vegas if they're going to lose like that? ... Jeremy Chinn should be at the top of your Defensive Rookie of the Year ballots. Chinn, a second-round pick out of Southern Illinois, scored touchdowns on consecutive plays for the Panthers in the third quarter of their loss to the Vikings. He plays all over the field and may not have the national name recognition of a player like Chase Young, but he's atop my list for DROY. ... Believe it or not, the game against the Dolphins was the Jets best chance of winning a game this year. The Jets will absolutely, positively go 0-16 this season. Now it's just a matter of whether Trevor Lawrence will wiggle his way out of going to play for Woody Johnson.