Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos odds: Picks from expert who's 12-3 on Colts games

The Indianapolis Colts host the Denver Broncos to kick off Week 15 of the NFL season on "Thursday Night Football." The visiting Broncos are 2.5-point favorites, down half-a-point from the opener.

The Over-Under, or total number of points oddsmakers think will be scored, is 40.5, down one from where it opened.

Before you lock in your Broncos-Colts picks, you need to see what SportsLine stat geek R.J. White has to say.

In Week 13, with the Colts visiting Jacksonville as 9.5-point underdogs, White told readers to pound Jacksonville -- and don't think twice about it. The result: Jaguars 30, Colts 10, another easy cash.

Remarkably, it helped White improve to 12-3 on picks for or against the Colts since the start of last season. He has his finger on the pulse of Chuck Pagano's team and anyone who has followed his advice is up big.

Part of his success: White has years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, dating all the way back to Super Bowl XXV. He finished in the top two percent in the nation's most prestigious handicapping contest and understands when NFL spreads are wrong. He's SportsLine's top NFL expert this season.

Now, he's going for 13-3 on Colts picks, and he's only sharing his strong "Thursday Night Football" play over at SportsLine.

White knows the Broncos snapped an eight-game losing streak last week at home against the Jets, pitching a 23-0 shutout. Quarterback Trevor Siemian threw one touchdown and didn't turn the ball over, and Denver's defense returned to form, forcing two turnovers and sacking the Jets' Josh McCown four times. It was Denver's first shutout win since 2005.

SportsLine's advanced computer model says that Siemian will continue to stay on track and throw for almost 250 yards and a score against the Colts on Thursday Night Football. And it also says the Broncos' defense will force at least one turnover by Colts QB Jacoby Brissett, who was sacked by the Titans eight times and by the Jaguars 10 times in one game earlier this season.

Although the Broncos are winless on the road, they did open up with three wins in four games and hung tough at Oakland (21-14), at Kansas City (29-19) and at Buffalo (26-16).

Denver remains No. 1 in the NFL in total defense, allowing 280.5 yards per game. They're No. 2 against the pass, holding opponents to just 174 yards per game, 17 fewer than any other team.

Now they're facing the Colts, whose three wins have come against teams quarterbacked by Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer and DeShone Kizer.

But just because the Broncos righted the ship doesn't mean they'll win by a field goal or more on "Thursday Night Football."

The Colts have held fourth-quarter leads in all but one home game this season. They've stayed within a single score of the Titans (20-16), Steelers (20-17) and Cardinals (16-13) at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Broncos have limited opponents' yardage, but they're still 24th in points allowed (24.2) and last in DVOA.

White knows there's a critical stat no one is thinking about that ultimately determines the point-spread winner for Broncos-Colts on "Thursday Night Football."

So which side should you back in Broncos-Colts on "Thursday Night Football?" Visit SportsLine now to see what critical stat determines which side of Broncos-Colts you need to be all over, all from the expert who has gone 12-3 on Colts picks, and find out.

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