The Los Angeles Chargers will play host to the winless New York Jets at SoFi Stadium on Sunday. While these two teams have a combined record of 2-16 this season, this Week 11 matchup gives us another chance to see rookie sensation Justin Herbert as he continues to establish himself as the face of the Chargers franchise going forward. As for New York, they continue to look like the worst team in the NFL and seem destined for the No. 1 overall pick at the draft, especially with Sam Darnold slated to miss another game.
In this space, we'll be diving into all the different betting angles that his game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll give you some of our favorite player props for this matchup along with a breakdown of how the lines shifted throughout the week.
How to watch
Jets at Chargers
This number has largely held true throughout the week. After opening at Chargers -9.5 last Sunday, it did dip as low as Chargers -8 on Monday, but the public was quick to jump on that which drove it back up to Chargers -9.5 to end the work week on Friday.
While it's the Chargers who come into this game with the better record, New York has been the most rewarding bet of the two over the last few weeks. As the Chargers have gone 0-3 ATS since starting the year 5-1 ATS, the Jets have covered in two of their last three games after starting the year 0-6 ATS. With that said, Los Angeles is clearly the better team here and have just been hit with an onslaught of bad beats as all seven of their straight-up losses have been by one possession. They should be able to not only get a win here but cover against a New York team that has a point per game differential of -16.3, which is by far the worst in the NFL.
The pick: L.A. Chargers 24, N.Y. Jets 13
This is another line that closes the work week where it opened, albeit after some maneuvering throughout the week. After opening at 46.5, this number quickly jumped to 48 on Monday. That rise didn't last long, however, as it crept down to 47 by the end of the day Monday, hung there all Tuesday, and eventually began ticking down to 46.5 by Wednesday.
The Chargers have had no problem scoring points with the Over hitting in six-straight games. Over that stretch, they have gone over 50 points scored and are averaging 60.3 points per game during that span, which is the highest mark in the NFL. That said, it does feel like things will come back down to earth in Week 11 simply due to the lack of significant firepower on the part of the Jets, who have gone Under in five of their nine games this season. With Joe Flacco as the starter, the Jets offense is averaging 12.3 points per game.
Projected total: 37
Justin Herbert total passing touchdowns: Over. 1.5 (-170). You'd have to go back to Week 3 (Hebert's second start of his career), to see the young quarterback throw for just one touchdown. Hebert has gone six-straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and likely won't be slowed down against a Jets secondary that has given up 16 passing scores this season.
Kalen Ballage total rushing yards: Over 53.5 (-120). Ballage gets to face his former team on Sunday and will be the lead back for the Chargers as he takes on New York. While the Jets have been solid against the run, Ballage is averaging 68.5 yards per game on the ground. As long as he keeps it up, he'll go Over on this total.
Kalen Ballage total receptions: Over 3.5 (+100). Justin Herbert looked Ballage's way nine times in the last two games and the back has come down with seven receptions. The targets are there and now that Ballage is the starter in the Chargers backfield, Herbert should be throwing his way early and often on Sunday.
Joe Flacco total passing yards: Under 240.5 (-115). This number is too high, in my opinion. For the season, the Chargers are averaging 232.3 passing yards per game, and outside of a 262 passing yard performance against New England in Week 9, Flacco has gone under 200 yards passing in his other two starts this year.