Ryan Fitzpatrick will take on one of his seven former teams on Sunday when his Miami Dolphins play host to the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium. The bearded veteran has been Fitz-magical to begin 2020, completing over 70% of his passes for 268.8 yards per game through the air, seven touchdowns and five picks. Arguably his most impressive win of the season came last week against the San Francisco 49ers when he threw for a season-high 350 yards and three touchdowns in the 43-17 blowout.
He'll look to continue that hot streak when he faces a Jets team that is in the running to be the worst club in football for 2020. New York has gone out to an 0-5 start to the year and will start veteran Joe Flacco as Sam Darnold continues to recover from a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder.
For our discussion today, we'll be dissecting all the betting angles of this matchup, including the spread, total, and some player props that we think have the strongest chance of cashing. We'll also give you the latest line movements from throughout the week. All odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
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Jets at Dolphins (-9.5)
The public seems to like the Dolphins in this matchup as this number has driven up over the week. After opening at Miami -8, it began to tick up midweek and has continued to rise to nearly double-digits. That could also be in part due to New York releasing running back Le'Veon Bell, one of the more talented pieces to that offense.
The pick: Dolphins -9.5. Don't overthink this one. Miami is the superior team to New York, who will be rolling out their backup for the second straight week. The Dolphins are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games and are 4-0 ATS against the Jets over the last two seasons. As for the Fitzpatrick factor, he's 14-6 ATS against teams he previously played for.
After opening at 48, the total has gone down a full point throughout the week. As mentioned above, this could be in relation to the Jets releasing Bell and New York not having enough firepower to keep pace with Miami offensively.
The pick: Over 47. The Over is 4-1 in the last five times the Jets have gone down to Miami to face the Dolphins. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in efficiency, so there should be some prime opportunities for each offense to put up points. While it may be a bit more difficult for Flacco and the Jets offense to find the end zone, as long as Fitzpatrick continues to have his offense in the neighborhood of the 27.2 points per game average they have this season, the Over should cash.
Best prop bets
Jamison Crowder total receiving yards: Over 64.5. Crowder is the key weapon in this offense. In the three games he's played for New York -- including last week with Flacco starting -- the receiver has gone over 100 yards receiving. No reason to assume he doesn't get at least around 70 receiving yards against a secondary that is tied for the ninth-most receiving yards allowed in the league.
Jamison Crowder total receptions: Over 5.5 (-105). Similar to what we said above, Crowder has seen double-digit targets in every game he's played. That's plenty of opportunities to get above this total.
Ryan Fitzpatrick total passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-140). Fitz has either gone over this touchdown total or thrown for zero scores this year. In this contest, I'll bet he finds the end zone more than one, similar to what we saw in Week 5 when he tossed for three touchdowns.
Preston Williams total receptions: Over 3.5 (+120). I'm not necessarily hitting the Over on this number because of last week's 106-yard performance. Really, it's about the volume he's received this season. Three times already in 2020 Williams has seen five or more targets from Fitzpatrick. That's enough to get him over this total here and the matchup is a perfect spot to do it as the Jets have allowed a league-high 71.0 completion percentage to receivers this year.
DeVante Parker total receiving yards: Over 58.5. While the volume hasn't always been there for Parker this year, his season average suggests that he hits the Over here. I also like him to enjoy his second 100-yard receiving game of the season here.