Kansas City weather: Advanced computer model backing Under for Patriots vs. Chiefs in AFC Championship Game

As the 2019 AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium kicks off on Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET on CBS. Leading up to the game, the Kansas City weather has been a huge topic of conversation. While the Kansas City weather forecast for Sunday has improved since earlier in the week, temperatures are still expected to get well below freezing, possibly reaching as low as 20 degrees for Patriots vs. Chiefs. Mother Nature could also deal Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and company winds that could top out at 15 mph.

The Chiefs vs. Patriots over-under opened at 57, moved all the way down to 54.5, and bounced back to 56 as the Chiefs vs. Patriots forecast has improved. And if you're evaluating the weather and looking to make any Patriots vs. Chiefs picks, check out the NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model first. 

SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight-up last season and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the championship round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it is 7-1 on all against the spread picks in the 2019 NFL playoffs. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has taken the AFC Championship weather into account and simulated every possible scenario 10,000 times. We can tell you that the Patriots vs. Chiefs weather has the model leaning to the under, which hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.

Mahomes vs. Brady is the battle everybody is talking about as one of the league's legends takes on a top rising star. And while these two helped their teams pile up 83 points in their regular-season meeting, the model is calling for a much different type of matchup this time around. 

Kansas City's defense was brilliant last week against the Colts, holding one of the NFL's hottest offenses to just 13 points. The Patriots were similarly tough against the Chargers, giving up just seven points until very late in the third quarter when the game was already out of hand. 

And both teams have been running the ball well recently. Patriots rookie Sony Michel went off for three touchdowns against the Chargers last week, while Damien Williams has helped the Chiefs quickly forget about Kareem Hunt. All those factors, combined with frigid conditions, have created plenty of value on the under, according to the model. It also says you can back one side of the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Patriots vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.

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