Lions vs. Bears odds: 2019 NFL picks, Week 10 predictions from advanced computer model

The Detroit Lions will be without their most important offensive player on Sunday when they visit the Chicago Bears at 1 p.m. ET. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (back) will not play, ending his 136-game streak of consecutive regular-season starts. Without Stafford, the Lions turn to journeyman Jeff Driskel to helm an offense that puts up 408.4 yards and 25.4 points per game. The Bears also have quarterback issues, as starter Mitchell Trubisky has struggled all season, throwing for just 1,217 yards and five TDs against three interceptions. The Lions are 2-6-1 in their last nine games against the Bears, while Chicago is just 1-4 against the spread in its last five games. Chicago is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Lions odds, up 3.5 from the opening line. The over-under for total points scored is 39, down sharply from an open of 43.5. Before you make any Lions vs. Bears picks of your own, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 10 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 28-17 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 90-60 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season, The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Lions vs. Bears 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

The model knows Chicago came up short against Philadelphia last week, losing 22-14. The Bears got a solid performance out of running back David Montgomery, who rushed for 40 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries; unfortunately, it just wasn't enough for the victory. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky's longest connection was to Montgomery for 30 yards in the fourth quarter. Montgomery's sharp afternoon set his single-game touchdown high for the season.

Without Stafford, Detroit will turn to Jeff Driskel, who will make his sixth career start. Driskel started five games for Cincinnati in 2018, completing 59.7 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and two interceptions. The last Lions quarterback to start a game other than Stafford was Shaun Hill in Week 17 of the 2010 season. Stafford is second in the NFL with 19 touchdown passes this season and fourth in the league with 2,499 passing yards. He had started 136 consecutive regular-season games entering Sunday, the sixth-longest streak for a quarterback in NFL history.

A pair of offensive stats to keep in mind before Sunday's NFC North matchup: Chicago is third worst in the league in passing yards per game, with only 205.4 on average. To make matters even worse for the Bears, the Lions rank second in the league when it comes to passing touchdowns, having already thrown 19 this season.

So who wins Bears vs. Lions? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Lions vs. Bears spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.

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