Watch Now: Thanksgiving Day NFL: Bears at Lions Preview (1:32)

The 2019 NFL Thanksgiving Day schedule begins with the Detroit Lions hosting the first game, a tradition held with almost no interruption since 1934. The NFC North rival Chicago Bears are the visitors for the second year in a row, and kickoff is at 12:30 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit. The Lions have been a streaky team on Thanksgiving in recent years. Starting in 2004, the Lions lost eight straight games on the holiday, and none of those were even close. Then, Detroit won its next four games, three of those in blowout fashion. However, the Lions have dropped their past two on Thanksgiving Day, including 23-16 to these Bears in 2018. Chicago is a six-point favorite in the latest Lions vs. Bears odds after the line opened at one, while the over-under for total points has dropped to 37. Before making any Bears vs. Lions picks of your own, be sure to see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-20 run that dates back to last season. 

It's also on an incredible 93-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model has also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up and consistently beaten NFL odds

Now, the model has set its sights on Bears vs. Lions. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it's also generated an against the spread pick that's hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. Go to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Bears vs. Lions:

  • Lions vs. Bears spread: Chicago -6
  • Lions vs. Bears over-under: 37 points
  • Lions vs. Bears moneyline: Chicago -260, Detroit +210
  • CHI: Bears are 7-1 in their past eight NFC North games
  • DET: Lions have won five of last six at home in series

The model knows that Chicago enters with momentum, having won two of three to keep its playoff hopes alive after dropping four in a row. In Week 10, the Bears beat the visiting Lions 20-13 behind one of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky's best games of the season. The former No. 2 overall pick threw for three touchdowns to three different receivers and didn't turn the ball over. His 131.0 passer rating was a season-high. 

The Bears have feasted on NFC North foes of late, covering nine of their past 10 games. They are also 9-4 against the spread in their past 13 after a victory. Chicago beat the New York Giants, 19-14, last Sunday, with Trubisky throwing for 278 yards and a touchdown. Allen Robinson caught that scoring pass and finished with a season-high 131 yards. Linebacker Khalil Mack had a strip-sack that led to a fumble. On Thursday, he'll tee off against Lions third-string quarterback David Blough, filling in for the injured Jeff Driskel (hamstring).

But just because Chicago is favored doesn't mean it will cover the Lions vs. Bears spread on Thursday. 

There is no quicker turnaround game in the NFL each year than the 12:30 ET kickoff Thanksgiving game in Detroit. That's a major advantage for the home team because the visitors only get one full day of practice. Chicago hasn't been strong on Thursday games lately either, covering just two of its past nine. While the Lions have lost four straight and seven of eight, they were competitive in all of those but one. Each loss except a 42-30 decision to Minnesota in Week 7 has been by one score. 

Detroit will see a Chicago team expected to be down three key players due to injury: receiver Taylor Gabriel (concussion), right tackle Bobby Massie (high-ankle sprain) and linebacker Danny Trevathan (elbow). Losing Massie hurts the Bears because the offensive line has struggled as it is, especially in run blocking. The Bears average just 78.5 yards per game on the ground, fourth-worst in the NFL. Only the Jets, Falcons and Dolphins are worse.

So who wins Lions vs. Bears on Thanksgiving Day? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Bears vs. Lions spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the computer model on a 93-63 roll on NFL picks.