Controversy surrounding Aaron Rodgers' future with the Green Bay Packers loomed around the organization all offseason. The franchise quarterback missed all of minicamp and OTA's, but reported for training camp. As a result, the Packers seemed to be rusty in Week 1, falling to the New Orleans Saints 38-3. On Monday Night Football to close out the Week 2 NFL schedule, the Packers will face the Detroit Lions, who are looking for their first winning season since 2017.

Kickoff from Lambeau Field is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The Packers are 11.5-point favorites in the latest Lions vs. Packers odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 48.5. Before locking in your Packers vs. Lions picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 121-79 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lions vs. Packers on Monday Night Football. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Lions vs. Packers:

  • Lions vs. Packers spread: Packers -11.5
  • Lions vs. Packers over-under: 48.5 points
  • Lions vs. Packers money line: Lions +425, Packers -600
  • DET: Over is 5-1 in Lions' last six games vs. NFC North
  • GB: Packers are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games following a straight-up loss

Why the Lions can cover

In Dan Campbell's first game as a head coach, his team showed plenty of heart. The Detroit Lions were down 41-17 with two minutes left in the fourth quarter, but they stormed back. Detroit scored two touchdowns, converted a pair of two-point attempts, and recovered an onside kick to make it a one-score game.

The last drive stalled in the red zone as they fell short to the San Francisco 49ers. Quarterback Jared Goff was 38-of-57 for 338 yards with three touchdowns in his first game as a Lion. The California product spread the ball around on the offense, with nine Lions catching a pass. Goff and the Lions look to bounce back following that Week 1 loss at home.

Why the Packers can cover

Jaire Alexander has become a shutdown corner since entering the league. He was named Second-team All-Pro in 2020 after securing 51 tackles, 13 pass deflections, and one interception. The former Louisville Cardinal allowed a league-low 40.6 completion percentage and was fifth with a 68.3 passer rating.

The Lions don't have much experience at receiver behind Tyrell Williams, who will sit out Monday Night Football with a concussion. Detroit will trot out a receiving room of Kalif Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Quintez Cephus. This trio has a career total of 47 catches for 803 yards and four touchdowns and could be undermanned against a Packers defense that allowed five passing touchdowns last week.

How to make Lions vs. Packers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 50 points. It also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see who to back here.

So who wins Packers vs. Lions on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Lions spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,900 on its NFL picks, and find out.