Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons odds: NFL Wild Card picks from expert who's 12-1 on Rams games

The Los Angeles Rams are six-point favorites over the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs. That's up one point after the line opened at five. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 48, down 1.5 from the opener.

Before you lock in your picks for Falcons-Rams on Saturday, you need to see what SportsLine stat geek R.J. White is picking.

In Week 15, White told SportsLine readers to back the Rams +2.5 at Seattle and not think twice about it. The result: a 42-7 Rams blowout and another easy cash.

Stunningly, that helped improve White to 12-1 on picks for or against the Rams. Anyone who has followed his advice is up big.

Part of his success: White has years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, dating all the way back to Super Bowl XXV. He just finished in the top one percent of the nation's most prestigious handicapping contest and has his pulse on NFL spreads.

Now, he's going for 13-1 and he's sharing his strong pick over at SportsLine.

White knows the Rams are tops in the NFL in scoring at 29.9 points per game, a full point higher than any other team. They scored at least 40 points four times this season, including a 51-17 demolition of the New York Giants on the road.

MVP candidate Todd Gurley finished with 1,305 rushing yards, second only to Kareem Hunt's 1,327, and his 13 rushing touchdowns led the league. He added 64 receptions and a half-dozen scores through the air.

SportsLine's advanced projection model says Gurley will have almost 150 yards from scrimmage on Saturday and find the end zone at least once. He has eight touchdowns in his last three games and is fresh off logging almost 300 total yards against the Titans.

But just because the Rams come into the game hot offensively doesn't mean they'll cover a line that's approaching a touchdown.

The Falcons are eighth in the NFL in points allowed at 19.7. They're top 12 both against the pass (214.3 yards per game) and against the run (104.1). They've allowed more than 21 points just once in their past six games.

Falcons signal-caller Matt Ryan has been on fire the past two weeks as well, throwing for an average of 302 yards. SportsLine's Projection Model says he'll throw for over 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams, with WR Julio Jones being the best receiving threat to score.

Falcons running back Devonta Freeman has broken out as a receiver in the past three games, hauling in 16 catches for 173 yards and a score. He led the team in receiving in a clutch Week 17 victory.

WR Mohamed Sanu had a season-high 11 targets last week and hauled in seven of them for 71 yards, giving Ryan another weapon to attack the Rams' defense.

White is leaning Under, but he knows there's a critical stat no one is thinking about that ultimately determines the point-spread winner for Falcons vs. Rams. And Galin Dragiev, who's on an 11-1 NFL run, agrees with him.

So which side should you back in Falcons vs. Rams? Visit SportsLine now to see what critical stat determines which side of Falcons-Rams you need to be all over, all from the expert who is 12-1 on Rams' picks, and find out.

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