'Monday Night Football' odds: Chiefs vs. Broncos picks by proven model on 55-36 run

After a headline-making 3-0 start to the season, the Kansas City Chiefs get a date with the Broncos on "Monday Night Football" at 8:15 p.m. ET in Denver. Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points in the latest Chiefs vs. Broncos odds, the same as where the line opened. The over-under for total points scored is 54.5, the highest Week 4 total. Before you lock in any Chiefs vs. Broncos picks, you need to see what SportsLine's projection model has to say. 

The model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

It also nailed its two top-rated picks last week, including the Ravens (-5.5) against the Broncos. It's now 7-2 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to 55-36. 

Now, the computer has simulated Chiefs vs. Broncos 10,000 times to produce another coveted top-rated pick against the spread. We can tell you it's leaning toward the under, but it has locked in a bold point-spread pick that hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine. 

The model knows the Broncos enter "Monday Night Football" at 2-1 despite a slow start from the offense. Case Keenum is averaging 207 yards passing the past two games, with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Those numbers could go up dramatically against a Chiefs defense that is allowing 362 yards passing per game, especially with a pair of veteran targets at wide receiver in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.

The run game, considered a sizable question mark entering the season, has instead flourished, led by a pair of rookies that have jumped right into the fire. Phillip Lindsay (198 yards) and Royce Freeman (152 yards, two touchdowns) pace a ground game that ranks third in the NFL entering Week 4. 

Just because the Denver is at home and Keenum is due for a breakout doesn't mean it will keep it within the spread on "Monday Night Football."

The Chiefs have electrified the NFL through three weeks, averaging 39.3 points. Mahomes has thrown for 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. His 137.4 QB rating leads the NFL by a wide margin, and under his leadership, the Chiefs' offense has scored between 38 and 42 points in every game. 

Entering the week, speedster Tyreek Hill has 14 receptions for 310 yards, eighth most in the NFL. Travis Kelce has 16 receptions for 229 yards, second most among tight ends. They've combined for five touchdowns. 

The Chiefs' defense has given up its share of yards, but has come up with big plays in key moments. It forced and recovered a fumble in the fourth quarter at the 2-yard line against the Chargers that the offense turned into a 98-yard scoring drive to seal the win. Kansas City also jumped out to a big halftime lead on the Niners and the defense held them at bay in the second half, including a big stop in the fourth quarter. 

So which side of the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned over $4,000 to $100 bettors.

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