Monday Night Football odds: Expert who's 39-18 on NFL totals picks Seahawks-Falcons

The Seattle Seahawks host the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons to wrap up Week 11 on "Monday Night Football." The Seahawks are one-point favorites, down from an open of three.

The over-under is 46, up one from where the line opened. And the Seattle money line is -115, down from an open of -155. That means you'd need to bet $115 in order to win $100.

Before you bet on a game like this with so much Vegas odds movement, you'll want to hear what Mike Tierney has to say.

On Sunday, Tierney told SportsLine readers to go Under 54.5 in the Patriots-Raiders game in Mexico City. "Oakland has not lived up to its billing as an offensive powerhouse," Tierney said. The result: Patriots 33, Raiders 8 -- another easy cash as the Raiders scored only one TD. Anyone who took the under didn't even break a sweat.

Amazingly, it helped improve Tierney's over-under record to 17-9 this season after he went a blistering 22-9 last year. Anyone who has followed his picks is way, way up.

Now, Tierney has analyzed every matchup, every trend, and every angle for "Monday Night Football" and locked in his strong pick. And he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

Tierney knows the Seahawks' defense is decimated by injury. CB Richard Sherman (Achilles) and S Kam Chancellor (neck), both four-time Pro Bowlers, are out. 

But just because the Seahawks' defense is depleted doesn't mean Falcons QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones go wild, sending Monday night over.

Atlanta's offense has been stagnant for the last six games, producing an average of 18 points. And the Seahawks have allowed more than 18 points in a game at CenturyLink Field just once this season.

The Falcons will be without RB Devonta Freeman (concussion), setting up Tevin Coleman for a monster workload. However, after finding the end zone 11 times last season, Coleman has scored just four times this season.

Tierney is leaning on the Falcons to cover, but what about the over-under, which he has made his name picking?

He knows there's a huge x-factor that ultimately determines whether Falcons-Seahawks goes over or under. And he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side should you back in Seahawks-Falcons on Monday night? And does this game go over or under? Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor sends Falcons-Seahawks over or under, and see which side of the total you need to be all over, all from the expert who is blistering hot on NFL total plays.

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