Week 6 of the NFL schedule culminates on Monday Night Football with a clash between the red-hot Buffalo Bills and the ground-and-pound Tennessee Titans. The Bills (4-1) can stretch their lead in the AFC East to three games over the Patriots with a win on Monday Night Football. Buffalo is coming off a much publicized victory over the two-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs last week. The Titans (3-2) can retain their two-game lead over Indianapolis in the AFC South with a victory.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a six-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Titans odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 53.5. Before you make any Titans vs. Bills picks or Monday Night Football predictions, you need to see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. This season he has been on fire. Through five weeks Hartstein is 21-7-1 with his NFL picks, for a winning percentage of 75.0 and a profit of $1,305. With his last 26 picks, he is an absurd 21-5.

He also has had a keen eye for the tendencies of the Titans, posting an amazing 20-7-1 record (+1257) on his last 28 against the spread picks involving Tennessee. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has broken down Bills vs. Titans from all angles and just released his coveted best bets. You can head to SportsLine to see his NFL picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Titans vs. Bills: 

  • Bills vs. Titans spread: Buffalo -6
  • Bills vs. Titans over-under: 53.5 points
  • Bills vs. Titans money line: Buffalo -270, Tennessee +220
  • BUF: Bills lead the league in scoring defense (12.8 points per game)
  • TEN: RB Derrick Henry leads the league in rushing yards per game (128.0)
Featured Game | Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo is playing championship-level defense. The Bills enter Monday Night Football allowing just 4.3 yards per play, six total touchdowns and 5.4 yards per attempt. All three are best in the NFL. They also have forced 15 turnovers, which also is the best in the league.

In addition, Buffalo has an edge on paper in terms of big plays. Tennessee's defense has allowed 19 plays of 25-plus yards, which is tied for most allowed in the NFL. Seven of those plays have been for 50-plus yards, which is also the most in the league. That bodes well for a Buffalo offense that has 15 plays of 25-plus yards, the sixth most in the NFL.

Why the Titans can cover

Tennessee has one of the top rushing attacks in the NFL. Led by running back Derrick Henry, the Titans average 167.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks third in the league. They are coming off one of their best rushing performances of the season with 184 rushing yards (5.1 per carry) and three touchdowns on the ground against Jacksonville.

In addition, Tennessee faces a Buffalo team that is ripe for a letdown. Last week, the Bills exacted revenge on a Kansas City team in a highly-anticipated early-season meeting between last season's AFC Championship Game participants. Now, Buffalo has to hit the road again to face a Titans team that beat the Bills last season, 42-16. 

How to make Bills vs. Titans picks

For Monday Night Football, Hartstein is leaning over on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the Titans vs. Bills spread a must-back. He's sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Titans on Monday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Titans spread you should be all over, all from the expert who's a stellar 20-7 on his recent picks involving Tennessee, and find out.