New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons odds: Picks from expert with 9 straight Atlanta wins

Sunday Night Football features a blockbuster Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. The last time they met, Tom Brady engineered the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history.

The Patriots are three-point favorites, nearly the same spread as the opening line of Super Bowl LI.

The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, stands at 56.5, up three points from an open of 53.5. It's the highest total of the week.

Before you make any bets on Falcons-Patriots, you'll want to hear what SportsLine Senior Analyst Larry Hartstein has to say.

In Week 2 on Sunday Night Football, he laid 2.5 points with the Falcons against the visiting Packers. The result: Falcons 34, Packers 23, an easy cash. Amazingly, it was his ninth straight winning pick for or against the Falcons.

Part of his success: Hartstein was a sportswriter based in Atlanta for 15 years. He has his pulse on the team.

Now, he's going for 10 Falcons wins in a row on Sunday night, and he's sharing his pick over at SportsLine.

Hartstein knows the Patriots are fifth in scoring at 28.7 points per game and have scored at least 30 in half their games. Brady is in the top three in the NFL in passing yards (1,959), touchdowns (13), passer rating (106.9), and completions (153). He has only thrown two picks, leading the Patriots to four wins in their last five games.

Wide receiver Chris Hogan is third in the league receiving touchdowns (five) and running back James White is fourth in yards after the catch with 201. Rob Gronkowski, despite missing a game, has four touchdowns, tied for first among tight ends.

SportsLine's advanced projection model says Brady will continue to roll on Sunday Night Football, throwing for almost 300 yards and at least two touchdowns. And look for Gronkowski to find the end zone.

But just because the Patriots are an offensive juggernaut doesn't mean the champs will cover, especially in prime time against a high-powered offense.

Hartstein knows the Falcons are 12th in points per game at 24.2 and sixth in passing yards at 257.8. And the Patriots have been abysmal defensively. They're allowing a league-high 6.6 yards per play; the offensively challenged Jets could have put up 24 points against New England in Week 6 if not for a strange end-zone ruling on Austin Seferian-Jenkins' apparent touchdown.

SportsLine's model is calling for Falcons QB Matt Ryan to top 300 yards and for WR Julio Jones to go over 100 for the second time this season.

Hartstein is leaning toward the Under on Sunday night, but what about the spread, which he has made his name picking?

He knows there's a huge x-factor that ultimately determines the point-spread winner for Falcons-Patriots. And he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side should you back in Falcons-Patriots on "Sunday Night Football?" Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor determines which side of Patriots-Falcons you need to be all over, all from the expert who has nailed his past nine Falcons picks, and find out.

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