New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins odds: Picks from expert who's 40-18 on NFL totals

The Washington Redskins host the division rival New York Giants on Thanksgiving night. The Redskins are 7.5-point favorites, up a half-point from where it opened.

The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored in the game, is 44.5, up three from where it opened.

Before you bet on a game like this with so much Vegas odds movement, you'll want to hear what Mike Tierney has to say.

On "Monday Night Football," Tierney told SportsLine readers to go over 45 on Falcons-Seahawks. The result: 65 total points as the over hit in the third quarter. Anyone who followed his advice didn't break a sweat.

Amazingly, it helped improve Tierney's over-under record to 18-9 this season after he went a blistering 22-9 last year. Anyone who has followed his picks is way, way up.

Now, Tierney has analyzed every matchup, every trend and every angle for the final game of the Thanksgiving Day NFL triple-header and locked in his pick. He's sharing it over at SportsLine.

Tierney knows the Giants are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 12-9 overtime victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. However, Big Blue scored only one touchdown in five quarters.

Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard sat out Sunday with migraines, leaving the Giants even more short-handed offensively. This is the same team that had already lost receivers Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall.

But just because the Giants have floundered offensively doesn't mean this will be a low-scoring grinder that goes under.

The Giants rank 31st in total defense, the Redskins 24th -- making this a matchup of bottom-10 defenses. And the Redskins, led by Kirk Cousins, are potent offensively and their past two games have totaled 65 and 68 points.

Even without running back Chris Thompson, who broke his leg Sunday and is out for the season, Washington has plenty of play-makers and an emerging big-play wideout in Josh Doctson. Running back Samaje Perine rushed for 117 yards and a score as well.

Tierney is leaning on the Giants to cover, but what about the over-under, which he has made his name picking?

He knows there's a huge x-factor that ultimately determines whether Giants-Redskins on Thanksgiving night goes over or under. And he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side should you back in Giants-Redskins on Thursday night? And does this game go over or under? Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor sends Giants-Redskins over or under, and see which side of the total you need to be all over, all from the expert who is blistering hot on NFL total plays.

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