The Minnesota Vikings pulled off a stunning playoff victory in 2019 and are just a few seasons removed from sniffing the Super Bowl. What if, however, they're far from a lock to reach the postseason in 2020? What if, going a step further, they're actually more likely to spend this coming winter at home? Recent history suggests that's not out of the question.
Since 2001, the Vikings have reached the playoffs in back-to-back seasons just once, in 2008-2009. That means it's been 10 seasons since they last had back-to-back trips to the playoffs. It also means they've never gone back-to-back under coach Mike Zimmer, who replaced Leslie Frazier starting with the 2014 season:
| Season | Record | Result |
|---|---|---|
2014 | 7-9 | No playoffs |
2015 | 11-5 | Advanced to Wild Card Round |
2016 | 8-8 | No playoffs |
2017 | 13-3 | Advanced to NFC Championship |
2018 | 8-7-1 | No playoffs |
2019 | 10-6 | Advanced to Divisional Round |
Now, is it unusual to be in and out of the playoffs like Zimmer's Vikings have been over the last half-decade? That depends on what kind of teams you're talking about. Stay inside the division, and the Chicago Bears have been even worse; their two playoff appearances since 2009 came eight years apart. But take the Green Bay Packers, for example; in the time since Zimmer has run the Vikings, Green Bay has made the playoffs in four of six seasons, including three straight from 2014-2017. The New Orleans Saints, an unofficial Vikings rival, have also enjoyed their own stretch of three straight postseason berths since 2014.
Call it happenstance or call it an indication that Minnesota is just a different kind of streaky, but the fact is they haven't been consistent, surefire playoff contenders since the days of Dennis Green, Randall Cunningham and Daunte Culpepper.
It's not like Zimmer's six-year tenure has ever been blatantly bad. A 7-9 floor is solid. But the trajectory is eerily similar to that of Zimmer's old team, the Dallas Cowboys, who since 2007 have always followed up a playoff or double-digit-win season with a non-playoff season.
And guess what? Because the Vikings went 10-6 and cracked the postseason in 2019, that means 2020 is primed to be their "off" year. Recent team history isn't the only reason Minnesota fans should be a little worried about this year, either.
If this on-and-off playoff record sounds representative of Kirk Cousins, the Vikings' own quarterback -- a guy many consider to be good enough to sustain success but not necessarily great enough to lead a deep playoff run -- then you're on to something. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2015, Cousins has never made the playoffs in back-to-back years.
If you want to write off the Cousins factor because of his supporting cast in Washington, that's fine. But what you can't do is ignore the supplemental concerns on the 2020 Vikings. Yes, Cousins was ultra-efficient and surprisingly good down the stretch in 2019, and yes, Zimmer has always found a way to milk his defense for big plays, but consider:
- Stefon Diggs is gone: Rookie Justin Jefferson should fit in nicely as a volume weapon for Cousins, but he's also a rookie entering the NFL with virtually no offseason. Part of the reason Cousins' play-action game was so lethal in 2019 was because Diggs was there to take the top off the defense. Let's not forget Diggs commanded 90+ targets in four straight seasons and topped 1,000 yards in each of this last two. Could we possibly be underselling the loss of such a reliable playmaker?
- Dalvin Cook's availability: Cook has every right to demand a new contract as the centerpiece of the Vikings' offense, but he's still missed 19 games in three years. It's foolish to expect him to be out there for 16 games. And even if you believe Alexander Mattison is a capable fill-in, are we really going to ignore persistent questions about the offensive line, which may have gotten a future left tackle in Ezra Cleveland this offseason but is counting on replacement-level starters on the interior?
- The defensive turnover: This is the biggest one. The Vikings weren't necessarily wrong to say goodbye to Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander in the secondary, but how often does replacing three-fifths of your starting defensive backfield go seamlessly, especially when most of your top replacements are mid-round rookies? Not only that, but Everson Griffen's departure leaves an underrated hole in the pass rush, where only Danielle Hunter is a proven, consistent threat.
None of these issues seems glaring enough to completely derail the Vikings. This is still a solid, disciplined team with a good foundation and a committed strategy. All things considered, however, it also seems fair to anticipate a regression from those 10 wins.
The biggest thing going for the Vikings, much like the Philadelphia Eagles in 2019's NFC East, might be the rest of the division: The reigning champion Packers face a tough schedule and will be hard-pressed to replicate their remarkable record (8-1) in one-score games; the Bears don't have an official starting QB for Week 1; and the Lions have been mostly hapless under Matt Patricia.
Relying too much on rival incompetence won't necessarily save Minnesota, though. As much as the Packers seem primed for their own regression, there's a case to be made that Aaron Rodgers is due for a rebound, especially if just one of the team's pass catching possibilities steps up. The Bears still boast a top-10-caliber defense, and potential new QB Nick Foles -- who's torched the Vikings before -- has a coaching staff that knows how to utilize him. The Lions, meanwhile, for all their defensive failures, might have a sneaky-good offense now that Matthew Stafford is healthy and surrounded by additional weapons.
Who will ultimately win the North, which hasn't had a repeat champion in five years? The Packers are the only team in the division to claim the crown in back-to-back years since 2010, but even if they don't do it again, the other hurdles Minnesota faces in 2020 suggest there's a decent chance it won't be the Vikings, either.
