Concussions paired with a short week will have a significant impact on the optimal NFL DFS strategy for Thursday Night Football between the New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos (-2.5, 37) at 8:15 p.m. ET. A few weeks ago, the chance to see Saints wide receiver Chris Olave compete against Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain would have been one of the selling points for this Week 7 matchup. However, Olave and Surtain are out on Thursday with concussions. The Broncos have the No. 4 scoring defense (16 points per game) and rank fourth in yards allowed (284.3) this season, but much of that can be credited to Surtain locking up the opposing team's WR1.
Will Denver maintain that type of success for NFL DFS picks? Can you feel better about using New Orleans receivers in NFL DFS stacks? Before locking in any NFL DFS lineups for Saints vs. Broncos on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to check out the NFL DFS lineup advice, strategy and player stacks from SportsLine NFL daily Fantasy expert Jimmie Kaylor.
Kaylor is a NFL and DFS expert for SportsLine, who opened the 2022 NFL season by winning DraftKings' NFL Showdown Thursday Kickoff Millionaire contest. He edged out over 355,000 other entrants in the contest and also has multiple five-figure tournament wins on his DFS resume. Kaylor, who cashed big all season in 2022, has covered the NFL and college football for close to a decade as a member of the Pro Football Writers of America, and his background as a former college and NFL player gives him a unique perspective when building his fantasy lineups and locking in his betting picks on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kaylor hit on epic NFL DFS picks for SportsLine members throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons. In 2022, he was all over Travis Kelce's four-touchdown performance against the Raiders on Monday Night Football, Kirk Cousins' 460-yard, four-TD performance on Thanksgiving Day, and T.J. Hockenson's 13 catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15. In 2023, he hit on Ja'Marr Chase's massive Week 5 performance (15 catches, 192 yards, three TDs), D.J. Moore's eight catches for 230 yards and three touchdowns in Week 14, and De'Von Anchane's breakout performance (233 total yards, four TD's) in Week 3. Anyone who followed his picks is way up.
This season, in the Sao Paulo game one of Kaylor's top picks was Green Bay wide receiver Jayden Reed, who caught four passes for 138 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 33 yards and a score, and James Cook, who scored three touchdowns on Thursday Night Football against the Dolphins.
Now, Kaylor has turned his attention to Broncos vs. Saints on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and locked in his top daily Fantasy football picks. You can only see his picks and analysis at SportsLine.
Top NFL DFS picks for Saints vs. Broncos
One of Kaylor's top NFL DFS picks for Thursday Night Football is Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. After being held to fewer than 150 yards in his NFL debut, Nix has passed for more than 215 yards in four of his last five games. He's also rushed for at least 25 yards in four games, including a career-best 61 rushing yards on six carries last week. The No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back games as he appears more comfortable in the Denver offense each week.
Nix was QB10 in Fantasy football last season after throwing for 216 yards and two touchdowns with an interception and rushing for 61 yards. His rushing potential adds a layer to his NFL DFS value that not many people may have expected for Nix as a rookie. The Saints have struggled against the pass, especially in recent weeks, as they have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (262.2) this season. Baker Mayfield threw for 325 yards and four touchdowns last week against the Saints, who enter on a four-game losing streak, and Kaylor expects Nix to continue his accession against New Orleans on Thursday.
Kaylor is also targeting Saints running back Alvin Kamara. The 29-year-old has at least one touchdown in four of six games this season, including a 4-yard touchdown run last week in a 51-27 loss to the Buccaneers. Kamara finished with 40 rushing yards and added five receptions for 24 yards as he remains a focal point in the offense. Kamara may be asked to provide even more playmaking ability this week with rookie QB Spencer Rattler likely making his second career start with Derek Carr (oblique) likely out.
Kamara leads the Saints in receptions (28) this season after finishing second behind Olave last season with 75 receptions. He's one of the top pass-catching running backs in the NFL with hands that rival elite wide receivers as well. Kamara had an 87.2% catch rate last season, which was fifth-best in the NFL. Kamara was tied for the team lead with eight targets last week, which was even more than he averaged over the first five games (5.6), and Kaylor expects Kamara to have another huge role on Thursday. See who else Kaylor likes right here.
How to set Broncos vs. Saints NFL DFS lineups, player pool
Kaylor is also targeting another undervalued player who could explode for huge numbers in Saints vs. Broncos. This pick could be the difference between winning your tournaments and cash games or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is, and the rest of Kaylor's NFL DFS picks, at SportsLine.
So who is Jimmie Kaylor including in his optimal NFL DFS lineups for Thursday Night Football, and which under-the-radar NFL DFS picks offer huge value? Visit SportsLine now to see optimal NFL DFS picks, rankings, advice, and stacks, all from a DFS expert who won a prestigious millionaire maker tournament, and find out.
