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After sandwiching a win against the Bengals between blowout losses to the Rams and Browns, few would have guessed that the Chicago Bears would be positioned to take over first place in the NFC North standings. With the Packers coming to Soldier Field on Sunday, Chicago can do exactly that with a win. The Bears are 4.5-point home underdogs in the latest Week 6 NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook, so which team should you back with your NFL office pool picks?

The Packers were blown out by the Saints and barely snuck past the 49ers and Bengals, so could the Bears provide value for your NFL confidence pool picks? Before you make your NFL predictions, you need to see the Week 6 NFL football pool picks from SportsLine's proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 6 of the 2021 season on an incredible 125-83 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

More importantly for NFL confidence pool players, the model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports office pool players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated the entire Week 6 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. Go to SportsLine to see them.

Top Week 6 NFL office pool predictions

One of the top Week 6 NFL pick'em predictions from the model: The Colts cruise past the Texans for a comfortable 12-point win. Both teams are 1-4 entering Week 6, but the Colts have played the significantly tougher schedule and have a few key advantages over a Texans roster that is just beginning a rebuild.

Indianapolis is tied for the second-fewest penalties committed (22) so far this season, while Houston is tied for the fourth most in the league with 39. The Texans have had a minus-70 penalty yardage differential, which could be a factor against a Colts squad that, despite its early-season appearance, has still made the postseason in two of its three seasons with Frank Reich at the helm.

The Texans have the worst success rate (25 percent) in the NFL on rushing plays and they're going up against one of the best run defenses in football. The Colts rank third in the league with a defensive success rate against the run of 71 percent.

The model predicts that Houston runs for well under 100 yards, putting pressure on rookie quarterback Davis Mills. That helps the Colts win in a staggering 80 percent of simulations, with the model projecting a final score of 30-17.

How to make Week 6 NFL office pool picks

The model also made the call on every other Week 6 game and has strong picks for potentially close matchups like Browns vs. Cardinals and Ravens vs. Chargers. It's also calling for an underdog to win outright. You can only see all of the model's NFL pool picks here.

So who should you pick in every Week 6 NFL game? And which underdog wins outright? Visit SportsLine now to get optimal NFL office pool picks, all from the advanced computer model that has ranked in the Top 10 on straight-up picks four of the last five years and went an outstanding 125-83 on top-ranked picks since 2017.