NFL odds and picks for Week 14: Advanced computer model loving Steelers, Patriots

The 2017 NFL season's 14th weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The New England Patriots are 10.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins, the L.A. Rams are 1.5-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Dallas Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites at the division-rival Giants in a game that opened at -6.

With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you need to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine's Projection Model went 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season, better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch -- every single one. It's again threatening to be one of the top models in 2017 and already called the Falcons' big NFC South win on Thursday Night Football against the Saints.

SportsLine computer picks also would have won more than 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up NFL picks last season and would be leading many pools again this year.

It's fresh off a week in which it went 13-3 on straight-up NFL picks, improving its record to 26-6 over the past two weeks. Last week, it nailed the exact margin of victory for the Steelers' win over the Bengals and It was also all over the Titans' win and cover over the Texans, nailing that margin of victory within a single point. Anyone who has followed its picks is up big.

With Week 14 already here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

One team SportsLine's proven model is all-in on: the New England Patriots. The model loves Tom Brady and company to beat the Dolphins in an AFC East showdown and easily cover a 10.5-point spread in a 29-12 decision. They've covered six straight games.

The Patriots covered against the Dolphins two weeks ago as 16.5-point favorites, winning by 18. Even with Rob Gronkowski (suspension) out, the model has New England covering the spread in 60 percent of simulations. And the Patriots may get WR Chris Hogan (shoulder) back for the first time since Week 8. He's practiced on a limited basis all week and looks like a go for Monday Night Football.

Another team the model is all over in Week 14: the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 4.5-point home favorites against the division-rival Baltimore Ravens. Even with WR JuJu Smith-Schuster suspended, the model is calling for a 26-19 Steelers win.

The Steelers are winning outright in 65 percent of simulations and covering the spread 54 percent of the time. It's projecting QB Ben Roethlisberger to throw for almost 300 yards and two scores against a Ravens' defense that will be without CB Jimmy Smith (suspension, Achilles).

Pittsburgh had a clutch, come-from-behind victory on Monday Night Football in Week 13 to run its win streak to seven games and its overall record to 10-2. They've have had a receiver top 100 yards in four of the last five games, with 'Big Ben' hitting 230 yards in each outing during that span.

Back the hometown Steelers with confidence on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers won 26-9 in the Week 4 meeting.

One surprise: the AFC South-leading Titans, who are three-point favorites on the road against the Cardinals, go down hard in a 24-20 upset.

The Titans will likely get WR Rishard Matthews (hamstring) back after a two-week absence, although he'll face Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals' 12th-ranked total defense. Arizona beat the 8-4 Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks ago and the Cardinals are gunning for two straight against the AFC South.

The public is taking Arizona against the spread just 39 percent of the time, but the model likes the Cardinals against the spread 62 percent of the time. The Arizona money line is +130.

The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge NFC showdown between the L.A. Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles -- two legitimate Super Bowl contenders. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 14? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Rams-Eagles game you need to be all over, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season and went 13-3 straight up last week, and get NFL picks from 16 experts.

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 39)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 41.5)
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 48.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 40)
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3, 39.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 45)
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Bucs (+1.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-3)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+1.5, 41.5)
Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 43)
Washington Redskins at L.A. Chargers (-6, 46.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 40)
Philadelphia Eagles at L.A. Rams (-1.5, 48)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 43.5)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+10.5, 47.5)

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