NFL odds and picks Week 6: Proven computer model loves Patriots, Texans

The NFL's sixth weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the rested New Orleans Saints are favored by four against the Detroit Lions, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams in a game that opened as a pick'em.

With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you'll want to know to what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine's Projection Model went an amazing 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season -- better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.

Every single one.

SportsLine computer picks also would have won over 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up picks last season.

It's fresh off a week in which it called the Dolphins upsetting the Titans early in the week, long before Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota was ruled out. It also called the Jets beating the Browns on the road when the Cleveland opened as 1.5-point favorites.

With Week 6 already here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

One team it loves: the Houston Texans. QB Deshaun Watson has 10 total touchdowns over the last two weeks. The Texans have scored 91 points over that span and now face the struggling Cleveland Browns as 9.5-point favorites. SportsLine's model says the Texans win and easily cover, 29-18. Back them with confidence on Sunday.

Another team SportsLine's proven model is all-in on: the New England Patriots. They're nine-point favorites against the Jets, and SportsLine's model thinks they'll still cover against a division rival on the road, 26-15. Look for an easy Under in this game as well. The Patriots are winning 72 percent of simulations.

One surprise: the Green Bay Packers, fresh off a huge road win at Dallas, will struggle on the road against the division-rival Minnesota Vikings. SportsLine is projecting a slim 22-21 Packers win. Take Minnesota (+3) and the points.

The model also is calling for another road favorite to get absolutely stunned, meaning a huge payday for anyone who bets on the big-time home underdog.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 6? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Chiefs-Steelers game is a virtual lock, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season, as well as picks from 16 experts.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-9.5, 47)
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 38.5)
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-13.5, 45.5)
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4, 49.5)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3, 44.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (-11, 46)
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+9, 47.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5, 46)
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 47)
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-3.5, 49)
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-12.5, 38.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (no line)

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