NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 5, 2023: Model backing Eagles, Patriots

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 5 NFL picks for every game on the NFL schedule

By CBS Sports Staff

Oct 8, 2023 at 11:17 am ET • 3 min read

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The Week 5 NFL schedule features nine games with NFL spreads of four points or fewer. With oddsmakers expecting so many close battles, placing your NFL bets could be a challenge. Houston has won by at least 20 points the last two weeks as an underdog, and the Texans are getting 2.5 points against the Falcons in the latest Week 5 NFL odds from the SportsLine Consensus. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 2.5-point home favorites over the Jets following their 24-point comeback win over the Bears last week to earn their first victory of the season, one of the slimmest NFL betting lines of the week.

Can Denver build on that momentum and will Houston continue to be one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season? Before you make any Week 5 NFL picks, you'll want to have a deep understanding of the NFL matchups. All of the Week 5 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 5 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 22-10 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 5 NFL predictions

One of the model's strongest Week 5 NFL picks is that the Eagles (-4) cover against the Rams. Philadelphia is the defending NFC champion and was just shy of winning a second Super Bowl last year before Patrick Mahomes put together a title-winning drive to end the game.

However, the Eagles don't seem interested in any Super Bowl losers' curse, winning their first four games despite Jalen Hurts being off to a sluggish start statistically. Philadelphia has piled up at least 400 yards of total offense the last three games and the emergence of D'Andre Swift has been a catalyst, with Swift rushing for 364 yards during that span. Now, the Eagles will take on a Rams run defense that has been middle of the pack thus far. Los Angeles ranks 15th in rushing yards allowed and (444), 22nd in rushing touchdowns allowed (five) and 24th in yards allowed per carry (4.4). That's a big reason why the model has the Eagles covering in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 5 NFL predictions: The Patriots (-1.5) cover the spread at home versus the Saints. New England was on the business end of a wrecking ball in Dallas last week, with the Cowboys fired up coming off a loss as double-digit favorites to the Cardinals.

Dallas won 38-3 with Mac Jones playing one of the worst games of his career, going 12-for-21 for 150 yards with two interceptions. However, the Patriots covered as 2.5-point road favorites against the Jets the week prior and also had one-possession losses against the Eagles and Dolphins.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is 0-3-1 against the spread this season and will be an underdog for the first time after back-to-back losses as a favorite. That's a big reason why the model has New England covering the spread in over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 5 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 5 NFL schedule, and it's identified two must-see underdogs who win straight-up. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which two underdogs stun the league? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.