NFL odds, picks for Divisional Round Sunday: Advanced computer model loving Over in Saints vs. Eagles
SportsLine's computer model simulated every NFL divisional game 10,000 times with surprising results
The 2019 NFL Playoffs have already provided immensely entertaining football, and Sunday's Divisional schedule promises to be no different. The Eagles are coming off a dramatic win over the Bears in which they scored a touchdown in the final minute to take the lead and then saw a potential game-winning field goal attempt by the Bears' Cody Parkey hit the upright and the crossbar. Now they visit the Saints as eight-point underdogs in the latest NFL odds. Meanwhile, superstar quarterbacks Philip Rivers and Tom Brady will go head-to-head as the Chargers visit the Patriots as four-point underdogs, the smallest NFL spread of the Divisional Round. NFL odds have been on the move all week, so before you make your Sunday NFL picks, be sure to check out the playoff predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the divisional round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it hit all four NFL against the spread picks on Wild Card Weekend. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now it has examined the latest divisional round NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its NFL picks and predictions are in. One of the top divisional round NFL picks the model recommends: go over (52) when the the Saints take on the Eagles.
New Orleans almost cleared this total by itself in a 48-7 blowout of Philadelphia on Nov. 18. Saints quarterback Drew Brees went off for four touchdowns and over 350 yards through the air, while the combination of running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara piled up over 200 yards of total offense and hit pay dirt three times.
And while New Orleans lighting up the scoreboard for 48 points again might not be realistic, you can certainly expect the Eagles to score more than a single touchdown since they've been rolling with Nick Foles under center following the back injury to Carson Wentz. They averaged around 30 points during their three-game winning streak to wrap up the regular season, so you can confidently lock in a pick on the over because that hits in more than 50 percent of simulations.
Another one of the divisional round NFL predictions from the model: The under (47) hits when the Chargers visit the Patriots on Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET.
The Patriots vs. Chargers forecast has been a major topic of conversation this week. While the potential for snow has subsided, frigid temperatures are still expected at kickoff in New England. That doesn't bode well for the Chargers, who play their home games in California where it's in the 60s. In fact, in Philip Rivers' last three starts in cold weather (less than 40 degrees), he's completed just 55.3 percent of his passes for four touchdowns and six interceptions.
New England's defense is also substantially better at home, allowing just 17.9 points compared to 24.0 outside of Gillette Stadium. Plus, the under has hit in four of New England's last five home games. The model projects that trend to continue on Sunday, as the Under hits in almost 55 percent of its simulations.
The model also has a strong NFL against the spread picks for both divisional round games on Sunday, and is calling for a top Super Bowl contender to go down hard, shaking up the NFL playoff picture forever.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence during the NFL's divisional round Sunday schedule? And which top Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds for Sunday below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4, 47)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8, 52)
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