NFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 3: Advanced computer model loving Packers and Steelers
SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 3 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results.
Several Super Bowl contenders will be tested in the third week of the 2019 NFL schedule. The latest Week 3 NFL odds show the Los Angeles Rams, led by quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and wide receiver Brandin Cooks, going off as 3.5-point road favorites against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday Night Football. The Week 3 slate also provides fans with another star-studded showdown when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium. The latest NFL lines show Kansas City favored by 5.5 despite wet weather in the forecast. And two of the most historic franchises in the NFL square off Sunday when the Pittsburgh Steelers travel cross-country to face the San Francisco 49ers in their first game with Mason Rudolph under center. The Niners are laying 6.5, one of the largest NFL spreads of the week. Before you make any Week 3 NFL picks, listen to the NFL predictions from the proven model at SportsLine.
This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has absolutely nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season on a strong 17-10 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a 79-53 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, it nailed the Seahawks (+4) covering against the Steelers and the Patriots (-18) covering a massive spread against the Dolphins with room to spare in Week 2.
The model ranked inside the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 3 NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap, and its football predictions are in. One of the top Week 3 NFL predictions the model recommends: the Steelers (+6.5) cover on the road against the 49ers.
The Steelers were among the teams decimated by the quarterback injury bug in Week 2, as Ben Roethlisberger injured his right elbow and will require season-ending surgery. With Big Ben out, the Steelers will turn to Mason Rudolph, who threw for 112 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in the Week 2 loss to the Seahawks. Rudolph is in his second year in the Steelers' system and has his top collegiate receiver, James Washington, in Pittsburgh. Running back James Conner is expected to be at full strength Sunday after suffering a knee injury.
San Francisco is 2-0, but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for just 463 yards and two touchdowns so far with two interceptions. The 49ers' running back combo of Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert have been quietly effective, combining for 281 yards, but neither has found the end zone yet in 2019. The model projects the Steelers to cover the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations, with the over (43.5) hitting nearly 55 percent of the time.
Another one of the Week 3 NFL picks from the model: the Packers (-7) cover at home against the Broncos. The Packers have a dynamic defense to pair with an Aaron Rodgers-led offense that's finding its form. The Packers are 2-0 on the season and lead the NFC North after wins over the Bears and Vikings. Defensively, Green Bay has allowed just 9.5 points per game, which ranks second in the league.
Meanwhile, Denver, fresh off a heartbreaking loss at home to the Bears, has struggled mightily on offense this season, averaging just 15 points through the first two weeks. Quarterback Joe Flacco hasn't been impressive thus far, averaging just 6.9 yards per completion with two touchdowns and one interception. Plus, the Broncos are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games against the Packers on the road.
The model has taken all that into account and is projecting the Packers to cover the seven-point spread in over 50 percent of simulations, while the under (43) cashes nearly 60 percent of the time as well.
The model also has a strong pick for Rams vs. Browns on Sunday Night Football, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this week. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 3? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-7, 43)
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 45.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, 52)
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-6, 43.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 47)
Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-8.5, 43.5)
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-21, 43)
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-22.5, 47)
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 48)
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 45)
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 44.5)
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 48.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 43.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 47.5)
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (+4.5, 41)
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