NFL Playoff Best Bets: Points at a premium in Jaguars-Patriots, Vikings-Eagles picks

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With just four games last week in the NFL Divisional Round, I offered six Best Bets – one against the spread for each game and two over-under picks.

Maybe I should just start picking the over-unders since I went 2-0 with those and went 1-3 with the against-the-spread picks, thanks to Saints +4 going down the toilet because of the Miracle in Minneapolis.

That 3-3 week, coming off the same mark in the wild-card round, has me at 6-6 in the playoffs heading to the Championship Weekend. I will make four picks here, two against the spread and two over-under picks.

The way things are going, I would pay more attention to the over-under selections. Let's try and close out the season on a high note by winning these four and cleaning up Super Bowl week.

Jaguars +9 at Patriots

There are teams over the years that have given Tom Brady fits in the postseason. They are the teams that hit him a lot, teams that can rush with four or five and get constant pressure. That's what the Jaguars can do. They can get after him with their down four.

That will slow the Patriots offense, but the backs will be key catching the football and running it. Jacksonville will want to run Leonard Fournette against a Pats defense that was 31st against the run in yards per rush. I think the Pats will load up to stop that and dare Blake Bortles to beat them. He won't. He will make some plays, and Brady will make his share as he always does.

In the end, it will be close, but the Pats are going to the Super Bowl. Take the points, though.

Jaguars-Patriots Under 46.5

The Jaguars have a good defense, and I think the Patriots will run the ball more than normal here. We know that's what the Jaguars want to do. That should lead to a low-scoring game.

Vikings -3.5 at Eagles

The Eagles did a nice job last week of scheming Nick Foles into a successful passing day. That won't happen here. The Vikings defense is much better than the Falcons, and that will show up. Those RPO plays won't be as effective. When they aren't, Foles is ordinary.

Vikings quarterback Case Keenum seems to be the charmed passer this season, and I think he continues his success here. The Eagles are vulnerable to the pass if they can be blocked, which I think happens.

The Vikings will get a couple of short fields to beat the Eagles and get to the Super Bowl. Lay the points.

Vikings-Eagles Under 38.5

Case Keenum vs. Nick Foles with both going against two top defenses translates into a low-scoring game. The one thing that could send this total over is a few turnovers, but I don't think that happens. This should be a slugfest. 

CBS Sports Senior Writer

Pete Prisco has covered the NFL for three decades, including working as a beat reporter in Jacksonville for the Jaguars. When he's not watching game tape, you can find Pete on Twitter or dreaming of an... Full Bio

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