Watch Now: Fuhrman's pick for Panthers vs Saints wild card (1:20)

The New Orleans Saints host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday to cap off NFL Wild Card Weekend. New Orleans is a seven-point favorite, up one-point from an open of -6. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 48.5, unchanged from the open.

Before you bet on a high-profile game like this featuring elite NFC South rivals, you'll want to hear what Mike Tierney has to say.

Last week, Tierney told SportsLine readers to go Under 42 in the Week 17 matchup between the Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers. The result: only 40 total points on the scoreboard -- another easy cash.

It wasn't a fluke. Tierney has been crushing the books for two years now, going an astonishing 50-25 on NFL Over-Under picks since the beginning of last season. Anyone who has followed his advice is up huge.

Now, Tierney has analyzed every matchup, every trend, and every angle for Panthers-Saints and locked in his Over-Under pick.

Tierney knows the Over has hit in six of the Saints' past seven home games against Carolina. And entering this weekend, New Orleans is fourth in points per game with 28.

The Over has also hit in five of the last seven Panthers' outings. And the Saints have beaten the total in five consecutive playoff games at home.

But just because the trends favor the Over doesn't mean it hits, especially in a playoff game between two opponents who know each other's tendencies extremely well.

Panthers QB Cam Newton has been hit-and-miss, infected by the overthrow while completing just half of his passes the past two weeks. He eclipsed 200 yards in just two of his last nine games.

On defense, the Panthers accumulated the third most sacks and rank seventh in yards allowed and 11th in points yielded, all statistics that should prevent New Orleans from a scoring breakout.

And whereas the Saints of old aired it out, the 2017 team is a run-first, grind-it-out team. Drew Brees has thrown for multiple touchdowns just twice in the past six games.

Tierney is leaning on the Saints to cover, but he knows there's a huge x-factor that ultimately determines whether Panthers-Saints goes Over or Under. And he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side of the total should you back in Panthers-Saints on Sunday? Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor sends Panthers-Saints Over or Under, all from the expert who's 50-25 on NFL totals since the start of last season.