NFL Playoff Picture 2018: Eagles lock NFC's top seed, but good luck with that field

The Philadelphia Eagles are the top seed in the NFC and own home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Good luck maintaining it, and good luck in the next two rounds of the playoffs. Philly's win over Oakland on Monday night featured a late touchdown by the Eagles which helped out many in certain situations.

As good as Nick Foles looked in Week 15, there was nothing inspiring about his performance against the Raiders. If you hope that the Eagles will make a deep run, there should significant concern about how good they can be against a dangerous defensive opponent.

The NFC is fascinating because with Foles, Case Keenum and Jared Goff heading up the top three seeds in the conference -- hello, Jeff Fisher! -- there are three trustworthy quarterbacks sitting on the other side. Some combo of Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan/Russell Wilson will show up. It is totally fair to wonder if the Eagles and other up-and-coming NFC teams will be as dangerous as they looked earlier in the season.

Things are also not great for the other team in Pennsylvania. It cannot be overstated how huge this is: the Steelers lost Antonio Brown to a torn calf muscle against the Patriots in Week 15 and there is a zero-sum chance of the star wideout returning for the first round of the playoffs. He can, however, come back for the divisional round of the postseason, which would give the Steelers a massive offensive advantage. This is a lethal team, a Super Bowl team when it is operating at maximum efficiency. Without Brown they're still a dangerous offense and defense against bad teams, but a run to the Super Bowl feels unlikely.

With Brown, their upside is untouchable amongst the rest of the contenders. Ben Roethlisberger isn't a top-three quarterback in today's NFL but he can be the best passer in the league when he's on. Le'Veon Bell is an MVP candidate in a parallel world.

The defense has the upside of a Super Bowl squad, although without Ryan Shazier they lack the ability to limit the run of top-tier teams and can be scored on quickly by elite offenses (see: Brady, Tom to Gronk, Rob).

What makes Monday night's win in Houston so huge is that we saw a Mike Tomlin team, which has traditionally struggled to go on the road and win games like this, storm the gates and dominate the Texans on the road in a tomb-game situation with a lot on the line.

As a result, the Steelers have a bye throughout the playoffs. They can let Brown get healthy for a week and then see if they can come back for the divisional round fully equipped. They hold off the Jaguars from stealing a bye out of their hands.

If things get real weird, and the Jets beat the Patriots on Sunday, the Steelers could actually win the No. 1 seed in the AFC. It's highly unlikely, but it is not off the table.

Here's how the rest of the NFL playoff picture looks, as well as a snapshot of some games that could impact what it looks like after Week 17 and beyond.

AFC: Who's in

1. (y) New England Patriots (12-3)

The Patriots manhandled the Bills in a game that featured some officiating controversy. Now they are guaranteed a bye in the playoffs thanks to Jacksonville losing. New England can beat the Jets in Week 17 and secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

2. (y) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3)

The Steelers hammered the Texans on Monday night and secured a bye in the postseason. The No. 1 seed is still on the table.

3. (y) Jacksonville (10-5)

The Jaguars got blasted by the 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo and now there are QUESTIONS being asked about Jacksonville's ability to handle an ELITE QUARTERBACK. Just kidding, but if the Steelers win on Monday, Jacksonville is locked into the No. 3 seed.

4. (y) Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)

The Chiefs took care of business against the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon and locked up the AFC West. There's a pretty good chance Kansas City, which is locked in to the No. 4 seed, plays the Ravens at home in the playoffs.

5. Baltimore Ravens (9-6)

The Ravens took care of business against the Colts in a sloppy, rainy game that did not solidify their case as a dangerous playoff contender. They should have stomped Indy but let the Colts hang around late. Still, they are likely going to end up in the postseason, and we know what Joe Flacco can do when covered in magic playoff dust.

6. Tennessee Titans (8-7)

The Titans lost a close one to the Rams on Sunday, putting their playoff lives at stake in Week 17 against the Jaguars. Win and they are in. Lose and they are most likely out, although the Chargers and Bills also losing could get the Titans in at 8-8.

AFC: Who's out

7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-7): The Chargers have an oddly complex but sort of simple playoff path -- it's basically a three-game parlay that involves them winning, the Titans losing and either the Bills losing or the Ravens winning, to keep Baltimore and Buffalo out of a potential tiebreaker together with Los Angeles.

8. Buffalo Bills (8-7): The Bills lost to the Patriots, moving them to 8-7 and requiring some help from other teams if they want to make the playoffs. They could get in with a win and Ravens loss, or by winning and watching both the Titans and Chargers lose.

AFC: Who's Eliminated

9. Oakland Raiders (6-8)
10. Miami Dolphins (6-9)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (6-9)
12. Denver Broncos (5-10)
13. New York Jets (5-10)
14. Houston Texans (4-10)
15. Indianapolis Colts (3-12)
16. Cleveland Browns (0-15)

NFC: Who's in

1. (z) Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)

The Eagles snuck one out against Oakland on Monday night and managed to steal home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They are your No. 1 seed in the NFC regardless of what happens in Week 17.

2. (y) Minnesota Vikings (12-3)

The Minny defense snuffed out the Brett Hundley-led Packers on Saturday night in Lambeau Field. The offense was hardly dominant in frigid conditions, but there was never any real danger of losing the game against an inferior offense. The Vikings have to wait until Week 17 to secure a bye -- if they lose, the Saints lose and the Panthers win, Carolina would leapfrog them for the No. 2 seed. A win gets them a bye however.

3. (y) Los Angeles Rams (11-4)

The Rams beat the Titans on Sunday and clinched the NFC West by virtue of the victory. They cannot catch the Vikings for the No. 2 seed, so they'll be playing on Wild-Card Weekend.

4. (x) New Orleans Saints (11-4)

The Saints hammered the Falcons on Sunday and locked up a playoff berth. They still need to win on Sunday to get the NFC South, although they could lose and have the Falcons beat the Panthers and still get the division title.

5. (x) Carolina Panthers (11-4)

The Panthers snuck out a win over the Buccaneers and it secured them a playoff berth at least as a wild card. They need help from the Buccaneers in Week 17 -- if Tampa beats the Saints next week and Carolina beats Atlanta, the Panthers would win the NFC South and could wind up as high as No. 2.

6. Atlanta Falcons (9-6)

The Falcons did not play well against the Saints and now need to win at home in Week 17 to secure a playoff berth. They can no longer win the NFC South.

NFC: Who's out

7. Seattle Seahawks (9-6): The Seahawks took care of business in Dallas and now have a slim hope of making the playoffs, needing a win over the Cardinals and a loss by the Falcons to make the playoffs.