NFL Playoff Picture: Dumb mistakes, poor execution could doom Raiders' hopes
Once considered favorites for a deep playoff run, the Raiders are instead a big disappointment
Rarely does one play determine the outcome of a game. Usually, it's a series of plays that lead to wins or losses, and that was the case for the Raiders on Sunday when they traveled to another country to be embarrassed by the Patriots.
On paper, the Raiders should be one of the NFL's best teams. In reality, they're among the most disappointing. The biggest issue is inconsistency -- from franchise quarterback Derek Carr, from an offensive line that dominated much of the previous two seasons, and from a young, athletic defense that has gotten worse.
The Raiders' boneheaded mistakes and inability to execute against the Patriots in Mexico City was a microcosm of their season. Even at 4-6 and 13th among 16 AFC teams, Oakland remains in the race for one of the conference's six playoff spots. But if Sunday's game is the latest indication, the postseason is, at best, a pipe dream.
The defense remains a liability
Khalil Mack may be one of the NFL's best pass rushers but beyond that, there isn't much to celebrate. Second-year safety Karl Joseph has shown glimpses of potential and embattled cornerback Sean Smith has been a replacement-level talent (this isn't a bad thing); otherwise, underwhelming best describes a unit that came into Sunday's game ranked 32nd overall, according to Football Outsiders' metrics (24th against the run, 32nd against the pass).
That worse-than-everybody-else ranking won't change this week either; Tom Brady finished a tidy 30 of 37 for 339 yards with three touchdowns, no turnovers and a lone sack. The running game, led by Dion Lewis' 60 yards on 10 carries, averaged 4.4 yards per carry. The Raiders' defense missed nine tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. One of those missed tackles came on the Patriots' first drive, one that ended with Dion Lewis celebrating in the end zone after a filthy Brady arm fake:
.@DionLewisRB brought his moves to Mexico City. #NEvsOAK pic.twitter.com/M6MEDWdlW8
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 19, 2017
And while there is no defense on the planet that can stop Brady full-arm-faking in one direction and turning to complete a pass on the other side of the field, if the Raiders do something as simple as tackle Lewis he doesn't score on the play.
Of course, no tackles were missed on the first play of the Patriots' third drive -- a 52-yard completion to Brandin Cooks, who somehow beat double coverage down the middle of the field.
C🍪🍪KIE.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 19, 2017
👀 @brandincooks! pic.twitter.com/UNztoZqJoS
Seven plays later, the Patriots were in the end zone again to take a 14-0 lead.
Variations on this theme would repeat themselves for much of the afternoon. The Pats' next drive, which started on their own 7-yard line following a Raiders fumble (more on that below) and with just 33 seconds left in the first half, ended in a Stephen Gostkowski 62-yard field goal as time expired. New England needed just three plays and 28 seconds to move the ball 48 yards.
In the third quarter, the Patriots' offense promptly picked up where it left off; on the third play of the first series, rookie Raiders defensive back Obi Melifonwu was in single coverage on Cooks with no safety help and for reasons that remain a mystery, he jumped Cooks' route. Cooks, meanwhile, sprinted past Melinfonwu -- and everybody else on the field -- and collected a 64-yard bomb from Brady on his way to the end zone.
.@brandincooks in three steps:
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 19, 2017
1. Catch a 64-yard TD.
2. Shoot your arrows.
3. Celebrate with the fambloski. pic.twitter.com/DEobFACHLs
24-0, Patriots.
Again, it's the culmination of dumb mistakes -- not the rare missed block, or blown assignment -- that have haunted the Raiders this season. This was just the latest example.
Silly mistakes continue to doom the offense
Derek Carr was a legit MVP candidate last season, and he was primarily responsible for the Raiders' 12-4 record and their first winning campaign since 2002, which was also the last time they had played in the postseason. Carr hasn't been as good in 2017, though he's still a top-10 quarterback, according to Football Outsiders' metrics. Inconsistency has been an issue for both he and the offensive line, though both showed well against the Patriots. The offensive line allowed just one sack while helping the running game to 102 yards and 5.5 yards per carry.
And while Carr finished with pedestrian numbers -- 28 of 49 for 237 yards, a touchdown and an interception -- much of that had to do with his intended targets. Carr was victimized by five dropped passes, a reality that isn't new for this offense. On the Raiders' second drive, Carr threw deep to Johnny Holton, who had a step on his defender. But instead of finding his hands, the ball doinked off Holton's shoulder pads and was intercepted by Patriots defensive back Duron Harmon.
Duron Duron.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 20, 2017
INT: @dharm32! pic.twitter.com/YAlkqZT6jZ
These types of mistakes rarely befall Brady and the Patriots.
Two drives later, Michael Crabtree dropped a pass that would have moved the chains, but the Raiders overcame the mistake and drove to the Pats' 15-yard line. There, Carr found Seth Roberts, who inexplicably chose not to tuck the ball after the catch, and while one Patriots defender held him up, another punched it out. Fumble, New England recovery.
A big stop by the defense.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 19, 2017
Flowers & Chung team up for turnover. pic.twitter.com/lI5sqzKTgc
Three plays and 48 yards later, the Patriots converted the aforementioned 62-yard field goal as the first half came to an end. At the very least, that's a four-point swing in New England's favor, all because of poor execution and suspect decision-making.
The offense looked marginally better as the second half progressed but much of that had to do with the game already being decided. By the time the Raiders got into the end zone, they were down 30 and there was just 11:43 left in the fourth quarter.
That said, here's how Oakland's first drive after the touchdown ended: Carr throws to a wide open Amari Cooper, who is out of bounds when he makes the catch. That is followed by two dropped passes by Seth Roberts and DeAndre Washington, and finally an errant Carr throw on fourth down that turns the ball over to the Patriots. So much for momentum.
For his part, Carr says nobody has quit.
"I stood in that huddle, down 30, with my guys, everyone hurting, everyone mad, and we looked at each other," Carr said after the game, via ESPN.com. "Nothing changes for us. We are who we are, and we're not going to turn on each other, we're not going to turn on anything about what we do. Obviously, we know that our culture, and everything that we do, works because we've seen it work. Mailing it in and those type of things, that will never happen. Not as long as I'm here."
But mailing it in has never been the issue, at least not in the Del Rio/Carr era. The issue has been and continues to be execution from one play to the next. And it's not clear any of the problems that have plagued the team this season can be fixed in time for a stretch run. The good news is that Oakland's next two opponents -- the Broncos and Giants -- have combined for five wins. The bad news is that the final month of the regular season will be considerably tougher, with games at Kansas City, at home against the Cowboys, and finishing up on the road against the Eagles and Chargers.
And this brings us to our final point.
About the Raiders' travel schedule
Despite some preseason expectations that had the Raiders representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, the reality is that Oakland travels more than any other team this season. Thanks to CBSSports.com's John Breech, we know that it will be nearly 33,000 miles and includes four trips of at least 2,000 miles. By comparison, the Steelers travel just 6,800 miles, less than any other team. (In related news, the Steelers are 8-2 and atop the AFC.)
This is noteworthy for one very simple reason: From 1997-2011, teams that traveled 2,000 miles or more for a road trip had a winning percentage of just .398, and it dropped to .364 for the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The Raiders have already lost on the road to the Redskins, Broncos and the Bills, and at home to the Ravens (without Carr) and Chargers. (The Patriots game in Mexico City was technically a Raiders home game, but it also required traveling 2,200 miles to get there.)
To recap: Here are the distances the Raiders will have to travel for their remaining road games:
- Kansas City: 1,800 miles;
- Philadelphia: 2,800 miles;
- Los Angeles: 370 miles.
In addition to winning at home, the Raiders will need to find a way to win on the road. History suggests they're facing long odds.
















