NFL predictions: SportsLine's Power Rankings for all 32 teams and best value plays for 2018

The start of the 2018 NFL season is less than a week away. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons will kick off the year at Lincoln Financial Field, and the Eagles will begin their title defense. Nobody knows exactly how the season will play out, but that's why we here at CBSSports.com have SportsLine.

SportsLine runs season simulations based on how each team would perform against all 31 other teams in the league on a neutral field, then power ranks the teams in order of how they perform in those simulations. That data informs SportsLine's season-long win predictions, playoff odds, division odds, and Super Bowl odds. 

Below, you'll find SportsLine's preseason power rankings for the 2018 season, which see the defending champion Eagles check in at No. 2 behind the team they defeated in Super Bowl LII, the New England Patriots

TeamPower RankSim %
New England Patriots171.8%
Philadelphia Eagles263.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers361.7%
Minnesota Vikings460.7%
New Orleans Saints558.6%
Green Bay Packers658.5%
Dallas Cowboys757.8%
Atlanta Falcons857.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars956.6%
Los Angeles Rams1056.5%
Baltimore Ravens1156.0%
Carolina Panthers1253.9%
Los Angeles Chargers1352.5%
Seattle Seahawks1452.1%
Tennessee Titans1551.6%
Kansas City Chiefs1651.0%
Detroit Lions1750.2%
San Francisco 49ers1846.9%
Houston Texans1946.4%
Arizona Cardinals2046.2%
Oakland Raiders2145.6%
Washington2244.6%
Chicago Bears2344.2%
New York Giants2443.0%
Buffalo Bills2542.0%
Indianapolis Colts2641.6%
Cincinnati Bengals2741.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2840.3%
Denver Broncos2939.6%
Cleveland Browns3037.3%
New York Jets3136.3%
Miami Dolphins3234.1%

The Patriots, Steelers, and Jaguars are the only AFC teams that rank in the top 10 of SportsLine's power rankings. They're joined by seven teams from the NFC, including two each from the NFC East (Eagles, Cowboys), North (Vikings, Packers), and South (Saints, Falcons). Conversely, the bottom 10 group of teams includes seven teams from the AFC -- including each of the bottom four -- and just three from the NFC. 

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SportsLine's win projections provide a slightly different picture than do the power rankings. The schedules for each team obviously affect their actual winning percentages in the simulations, and you'll see several changes in the projected standings below. 

AFCWinsNFCWins
New England Patriots11.5Philadelphia Eagles10.9
Jacksonville Jaguars9.9Los Angeles Rams9.8
Pittsburgh Steelers9.9Minnesota Vikings9.6
Los Angeles Chargers9.2New Orleans Saints9.3
Baltimore Ravens9.8Green Bay Packers9.1
Kansas City Chiefs8.6Atlanta Falcons8.7

This simulation gives us two new playoff teams in the AFC, with the Chargers and Ravens replacing the Titans and Bills, and one team in the NFC, with the Packers replacing the Panthers. The teams that jump in the standings here include the Jaguars, who move past the Steelers due to their easier schedule; and the Rams, who had a 59 percent chance to win their division and thus leap to the No. 2 seed in the East. Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Falcons jump over the Titans and Cowboys, respectively, to grab the No. 6 seed in their conferences. 

The simulations give the top five teams in the AFC each a 65 percent chance or better to make the playoffs, while another five teams (Chiefs, Titans, Texans, Broncos and Colts) have between a 25 and 50 percent chance of getting into the postseason. The NFC is a bit more well-balanced. The Eagles and Rams are over 70 percent, but the Vikings, Saints, Packers, Falcons, Cowboys, Panthers, Lions, 49ers and Seahawks all have playoff odds somewhere between 30 and 65 percent. 

On the other end of the spectrum, teams like the Raiders (6.3 wins, 12.5 percent chance at the playoffs), Bears (5.9 wins, 5.3 percent), and Giants (6.2 wins, 7.2 percent) are predicted to disappoint despite a lot of offseason buzz, while the Browns are projected for an incredible 5.5-win improvement but still finish last in the AFC in the simulations. 

The simulations have five teams beating their Las Vegas over/under by more than 0.5 wins, making them strong value plays on the positive side: Patriots, Lions, Jaguars, Cardinals and Ravens. Meanwhile, the Steelers, Buccaneers, Bears, Giants, Falcons, Texans, Bengals, Packers and Raiders each fall short of their over/under by at least half a win, making some of them potentially strong negative plays. 

Of course, you're likely curious about Super Bowl odds. There are seven teams SportsLine gives a 5 percent chance or better of winning Super Bowl LIII. In order, that's the Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, Jaguars, Vikings, Rams and Saints. Here, the Pats and Eagles look like the best plays given their respective Super Bowl odds at sports books. 

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CBS Sports Writer

Jared Dubin is a New York lawyer and writer. He joined CBSSports.com in 2014 and has since spent far too much of his time watching film and working in spreadsheets. Full Bio

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