Week 1 is always difficult. It's perpetually the trickiest week of the season. It's never easy.

I'm not just talking about picking the opening week's slate of games, even though that too is challenging considering it's a brand new season and we know nothing about this year's versions of all 32 NFL teams, making it difficult to select teams to back and teams to fade. Things will get easier as the season progresses.

What I'm talking about is writing. NFL players and coaches aren't the only ones shaking off the rust. It's the same way for NFL writers too -- well, at least this particular NFL writer. I know what I want to say in this blank space, but I'm not sure how I should say it. A few years ago, I started my Week 1 column by using an extended "Game of Thrones" metaphor and ever since then, I just haven't been able to top it. 

So, this year I'm not even going to try. I'm not going to try because there are only so many times I can use an extended "Game of Thrones" or "Star Wars" metaphor before I drive my editors mad -- not as mad as Daenerys, but still -- and because on Wednesday morning, as I was lying in bed trying to figure out how I was going to start this column, Bill Belichick did it for me. He put it perfectly -- so perfectly, that I closed Twitter on my phone, shot up out of bed, threw on my Arya Stark T-shirt, and pretty much sprinted over to my computer to start writing.

This is the only introduction this column needs. 

Want more NFL picks content? Listen and subscribe to the Pick Six Podcast, where senior NFL writer Pete Prisco and SportsLine's No. 1 NFL analyst R.J. White join host Will Brinson to break down every single Week 1 game. Check it out below:

Every Thursday during the season, I'll be picking my five best bets for the upcoming week. Below, you'll find my five best bets for Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season.

Right after I flaunt my best bets record from last season. 

Last year: 49-35-1

tightboringintermediateegret-size-restricted.gif
HBO / Game of Thrones

All odds via SportsLine.

1. Bears -3 vs. Packers

If you're a Bears fan or if you've been paying attention to the discourse surrounding the Bears all offseason, you're probably familiar with the argument in favor of their regression. The argument says the Bears will not be as good as they were a season ago, when they won the NFC North with a 12-4 record, because their defense will take a step back after losing a few key contributors, they won't be able to generate takeaways at nearly as high of a clip, and they probably won't be able to stay as healthy as they did a year ago. 

The argument makes sense. The Bears did lose defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, slot cornerback Bryce Callahan, and safety Adrian Amos (to the Packers) this offseason. The Bears did generate 36 turnovers a season ago, which led the league by a wide margin. The Bears did stay remarkably healthy last season, ranking as sixth-healthiest offense and the fourth-healthiest defense, per Football Outsiders. The Bears won 12 games last season. They're probably going to capture fewer than 12 wins this season. Regression is probably coming.

If you're a Packers fan or if you've been paying attention to the discourse surrounding the Packers all offseason, you're probably familiar with the argument in favor of their improvement. The argument says the Packers will rebound after a 6-9-1 season (their second straight below .500 finish) because new coach Matt LaFleur will provide Rodgers with an innovative offensive scheme and a young defense will make the leap from promising to good.

The argument makes sense. For years, Rodgers was saddled with Mike McCarthy's antiquated offense that grew stale. And the defense features a wealth of young, intriguing talent. The Packers have used 10 high draft picks (Rounds 1-3) on defensive players since 2016. The Packers will probably win more than six games. An improvement is probably coming.

On Thursday night, to kick off the 100th NFL season, the popular regression candidate and the popular improvement candidate will meet at Soldier Field. Based on the narratives that have trailed the teams this summer, the Packers should be expected to pull off the upset on the road. They're on the ascent. The Bears on the descent. It's reflected in the odds. Even though they doubled the Packers' win total a year ago, the Bears are only three-point favorites at home -- where they went 7-1 against the spread last regular season.

While I understand both of the narratives, I still think the Bears are the far superior team. Let's not forget, there was a big gap between the two teams last season. By DVOA, the Bears (fifth) out-ranked the Packers (19th) by 14 spots. By point differential, the Bears (plus-138) outscored the Packers (minus-24) by 162 points. The Bears were better than the Packers last year and it wasn't particularly close. 

The point being, the Bears can regress and still be better than the Packers, and the Packers can improve and still be worse than the Bears. 

So who wins Packers vs. Bears? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Bears spread to jump on Thursday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

The Packers' defense is supposed to make the leap this season after they used two more high draft picks on defensive players, but let's not forget how awful the Packers' defense was last season. By DVOA, only three defenses were worse than that of the Packers: Raiders, Falcons, and Buccaneers. So even if the Packers' defense improves, as many have predicted, it's unlikely they'll be able to make the leap from one of the four worst defenses to one of the four best defenses. The Packers' offense is supposed to improve because of LaFleur, but consider what that statement means: We're saying the Packers' offense will become Death Star deadly again because they hired a coach who has only called plays in the NFL once in his career and in that one season as a play-caller, his offense ranked 25th in yards and 27th in points. 

The Bears' defense is supposed to get worse, but they were the best defense by DVOA by a wide margin last season. So even if they do get worse, they can still be one of the league's best defense. And if the defense does take a step back, the offense can make up for that regression by improving. This is Year 2 for Mitchell Trubisky in Matt Nagy's offense. Improvement should be expected. 

On Thursday night, I think we're going to see the better team win by two scores. I think the Bears, even though they're bound to regress, are better than the Packers, even though they're bound to improve. I think the Bears will start the season with a big win over their rivals and make a statement that they're still the best team in the NFC North. 

2. Redskins at Eagles Under 45.5

This comes down to one simple question: How in the heck are the Redskins going to score points?

The Redskins are still without stud left tackle Trent Williams. They're starting Case Keenum at quarterback. Their best receiver is Paul Richardson. It's difficult to find a worse offense than the Redskins' -- besides the Dolphins' offense, of course. Making matters worse for them is that they're going up against the Eagles, a team absolutely loaded on defense with a front that includes the likes of Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, and Malik Jackson. 

The Eagles should win big, but they probably won't be able to score 40 points against a solid Redskins defense. And the Redskins' offense won't have enough firepower to push the total over 45.5 points. Take the under.

3. 49ers at Buccaneers Over 50.5

I think both of these teams will fail to win more than seven games during the upcoming season, mostly because both of their defenses aren't any good. Last season, the 49ers' defense ranked 23rd in DVOA and the Buccaneers' defense finished 32nd. While both teams addressed their defense in the draft with top-five picks Nick Bosa (49ers) and Devin White (Buccaneers), those two players can't solve all of the problems plaguing their defenses. Meanwhile, both teams feature two of the best offensive coaches in football in Kyle Shanahan and Bruce Arians. Both should be able to figure out a way to put up points against bad defenses. 

In a game between two bad teams with two bad defenses and two great offensive coaches, expect an explosion of points. Expect the total to exceed 50.5 points. 

4. Seahawks -9.5 vs. Bengals 

The simplest way to put this is that the Seahawks are a playoff-caliber team, they're at home, and they're playing a team that should be in contention for the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. I had this game bookmarked even before the Seahawks traded for Jadeveon Clowney, so there's no way I'm changing my mind after the Seahawks added Clowney, who should torment the Bengals' underwhelming offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks' offense should be able to do damage against what was the fifth-worst defense by DVOA last season. It's kinda been forgotten at this point due to all the crazy stuff that happened over the summer (thanks, Antonio Brown), but remember when the Bengals couldn't get anyone to take their defensive coordinator opening? I don't see how this Bengals defense will improve enough to overcome their issues on offense. 

The far superior team wins big at home against one of the worst teams in football.

5. Panthers +2.5 vs. Rams

I think I'm in love with this line. 

Going across the country and playing in the early time slot is never an easy task for a West Coast team, and that's exactly what the Rams have to do in Week 1. Going across the country and playing in the early time slot against a playoff-caliber team is an extremely difficult task for a West Coast team, and that's exactly what the Rams have to do in Week 1.

Don't forget, before Cam Newton hurt his shoulder to the point where he couldn't throw the ball more than 30 yards downfield, the Panthers were on track to make the playoffs. They started last season 6-2 (5-3 against the spread) before going 1-7 in the second half of the season. There's a very real chance if Newton doesn't hurt his shoulder, the Panthers find a way to win four games in the second half of the season and they make the playoffs, and then this line wouldn't be what it is. Because of their 1-7 finish to the season, the Panthers are undervalued heading into the upcoming season. I'll take the 2.5 points with the Panthers at home against a West Coast team. 

Speaking of regression, you know which team might be a more obvious regression candidate than the Bears? 

The Rams.

Want a free shot to win $1,000,000 just for picking winners? How about 17 of 'em? Join Parlay Pick'em now to play every week for a million-dollar jackpot and our $10K season prize.