NFL Week 10 odds, picks: Seahawks upset Tom Brady, Bucs in Germany, Cowboys trash Packers at Lambeau Field

Here's how the Week 10 slate is shaping up as the 2022 season progresses

By Tyler Sullivan

Nov 9, 2022 at 10:44 am ET • 5 min read

USATSI

Welcome to the second half of the 2022 regular season! In our little gambling corner of the internet, we finished off the first half on a positive note, notching an 11-3-1 ATS record in my locks of the week over the last three slates and we'll look to keep that positive momentum going as we head down the stretch.

This week, we have 14 games on the docket, which includes an international matchup that not only finds itself in Germany but is also included as one of my five locks. As you may expect, the curious case of the Indianapolis Colts and their surprise hiring of Jeff Saturday also will be highlighted in the locks section. Ready to jump in? Let's get to it!

2022 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 22-20-3
ATS: 63-68-5
ML: 82-54

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

Seahawks at Buccaneers (Germany)

For the first time in NFL history, a regular-season game will be played in Germany and those fans will be treated to quite the game. Tom Brady looked like his vintage self in the final 40 seconds of last week's comeback win over the Rams and is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS all time in international games. He also has a whopping 30.3 average win margin in those international victories. However, all those came during his days in New England and this Buccaneers team still has plenty of warts. Truthfully, the Seahawks are getting disrespected here. Tampa Bay is a league-worst 2-6-1 ATS while Seattle has played like one of the better teams in the conference and is 6-3 ATS. Given how both of these teams are playing and that this is on a neutral site, I would've expected Seattle to be favored in this spot, so I'll gladly take the points here.

Projected score: Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Seahawks +2.5

Cowboys at Packers

The oddsmakers have seemingly given up on the Packers and for good reason. After being road favorites against the Lions in Week 9, Aaron Rodgers threw three red zone interceptions and Green Bay fell to 3-6 on the season. Now, Rodgers and Co. are home dogs to the Cowboys. The defending MVP is having arguably his worst season and the Packers are averaging just 17.1 points per game with a red zone touchdown percentage (50%) that ranks 23rd in the NFL. Meanwhile, Dallas is fresh off a bye and is 2-0 SU and ATS since Dak Prescott returned from his thumb injury. Since the start of last season, the Cowboys are 19-6 ATS (best in the NFL) and Mike McCarthy is 12-2-1 ATS in his career coming off the bye (2-0 ATS with Dallas).

Projected score: Cowboys 33, Packers 20
The pick: Cowboys -5

Browns at Dolphins

Miami is now 6-0 SU when Tua Tagovailoa plays a full game and the quarterback leads the NFL in passer rating (115.9) and yards per attempt (9.2) through nine weeks. The Dolphins are also averaging 27.5 points per game when Tagovailoa plays the entire game. Now, they'll host a Browns club that was on the bye in Week 9. Typically, you'd think the more rested club would gain a bit an of edge, but that may not be the case here with Cleveland. Under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns are 1-6 ATS when they have the rest advantage and are 0-2 ATS following the bye. With that prior history in mind and Miami's 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games at Hard Rock Stadium, we'll ride with Fins to clear this number.

Projected score: Dolphins 27, Browns 23
The pick: Dolphins -3.5

Colts at Raiders

It's been a weird week in Indianapolis and the hiring of Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach may be one of the more bizarre turn of events you'll see in the NFL for quite some time. While he's a beloved former player for the organization, he has no prior coaching experience at the NFL or collegiate level. And with Frank Reich gone, the offensive play-calling duties go to pass game specialist/assistant QBs coach Parks Frazier. Collectively, there's not much experience calling plays on the offensive side of the ball and the Colts will again start Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. With that knowledge alone, it's hard to imagine Indy putting up many points, especially when you consider how poorly the O-line has played this season and just allowed nine sacks a week ago.

On top of all that, the Raiders are desperate coming into this game. After a two-game losing skid that included a shutout against the Saints and the Jaguars rallying from a 17-point deficit, Josh McDaniels' seat is getting warm and a loss to this Colts team could send Mark Davis over the edge. This is a kitchen-sink game for Las Vegas and, against an inferior team, they should be able to pull away.

Projected score: Raiders 27, Colts 17
The pick: Raiders -6

Cardinals at Rams

The Rams haven't given you many reasons to believe in them this season, including last week when they let a win over the Bucs slip through their fingers. However, this is a week where you'll want to back them. With L.A. having its backs against the wall and on the brink of truly falling completely out of playoff contention, Sean McVay will be dumping out the playbook to pull away.

The Rams also match up against Arizona well. Kyle Murray is 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS against the Rams in his career (including playoffs). The QB has continuously struggled against division opponents, owning a 5-15 SU record and his yards per attempt and passer rating averages are all considerably worse against the NFC West than nondivision rivals. The Cardinals are also 4-11 dating to Week 14 of last season (including playoffs), which is the second-worst SU record in the NFL over that stretch.

Projected score: Rams 27, Cardinals 23
The pick: Rams -3