NFL Week 10 odds, picks, TV: Browns shock 6-2 Bills in Cleveland, Seahawks and 49ers play Monday thriller
Wondering which NFL teams are going to win in Week 10? You've come to the right place to find out
Guys, I have a confession to make, besides reading football picks, I have to say, my favorite thing about the internet is cat videos. As a matter of fact, if i've learned one thing about being on the internet after all these years, it's that you can never watch too many cat videos, and trust me, I know, because I've tried.
The only reason I'm bringing this up is because nothing excites me more than when my two favorite worlds collide (cats and football), which is exactly what happened on Monday night in New York. In what will surely go down as the greatest thing to happen at MetLife Stadium this year -- remember, the bar for good things to happen at that stadium is low, because the Jets and Giants play there -- A CAT RAN ON THE FIELD.
I don't know what his name was, but I've decided I'm going to call him Cat Prescott, or maybe Cat Shurmur. You know what, I'm not sure yet. However, one thing I am sure about is who I'm going to be picking this week, so let's get to the picks.
Actually, before we get to the picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here, and you should definitely click over this week because Ryan Wilson put everyone to shame. Wilson went 12-2 with his straight-up picks in Week 9, which was the best record of any media member in the country, according to our friends over at Pickwatch.
I asked Wilson to share his pick-making secrets with me this week, but he said he had better things to do like watch cat videos, so unfortunately, we won't be getting any of his secrets. One person who shares his secrets every day is Will Brinson, and that's because he hosts the Pick Six Podcast, which is our daily NFL podcast here at CBSSports.com.
Since no one wants to hear Brinson talk to himself, I join him three days per week (Monday, Tuesday and Friday) to talk football and anything else we can think of. On Tuesday's episode, which you can listen to below, we talked about the CATastrophe from the Cowboys-Giants game, and we also discussed why the NFL could end up sending the Chargers to London on a permanent basis.
Even though I'm only on three days per week, there's a new episode every single day from Monday thru Friday and you should try to listen as often as possible. (You can click here to check out the podcast and subscribe).
Alright, that's enough of that, let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 10 picks
L.A. Chargers (4-5) at Oakland (4-4)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime)
Point spread: Chargers -1.5
Like most people, I flipped my clock back an hour over the weekend, which I'm only mentioning, because that's basically become my annual reminder that I have to start taking the Chargers seriously. When it comes to the first two months of the season, I can't ever tell if the Chargers are actually trying, but once the calendar hits November, I know they're trying, because they're practically unbeatable. In their past seven November games, the Chargers have gone 6-1, and they've won those six games by an average of 20.7 points.
The Chargers' biggest advantage in this game is that I'm not sure the Raiders are going to have any idea what Los Angeles is going to do on offense. The Chargers just fired their offensive coordinator (Ken Whisenhunt) last week, which is usually a sign that a total meltdown is coming, but instead, the opposite happened after the Chargers promoted their QB coach (Shane Steichen) to OC. In his first game, the Packers looked totally clueless on defense as the Chargers rolled up 442 yards with Steichen calling the shots. Basically, the Packers had no idea what to expect from Steichen, and the Raiders are likely going to be in the same boat, because they only have three days to prepare for this game.
Don't be surprised if Philip Rivers throws the ball roughly 90 times on Thursday, and that's because the Raiders have the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Raiders are giving up more passing yards per game this year than teams like the Bengals, Dolphins and Jets, which is so bad, it's actually almost impressive. The Raiders' secondary has been putrid this year that it's literally the only thing that their fans have really been complaining about.
This week, the Raiders secondary gets to go up against a Chargers offense that ranks second in the AFC in passing yards. That seems like a recipe for disaster.
The pick: Chargers 33-30 over Raiders
Want more picks? Pete Prisco and R.J. White joined Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down all the gambling angles for Week 10. Give it a listen below and be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform:
Buffalo (6-2) at Cleveland (2-6)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Browns -2.5
If Roger Goodell ever quits his job and gives it to me, the first thing I'm going to do is move all of the Browns' games to prime time. America loves drama and America loves watching people meltdown on national television, and if you've watched the Browns play a single game this season, then you already know that we'd be 100 percent guaranteed to get both of those things every week.
A player threatening fans on Twitter? The Browns have that. Well, they did have that, but the player who was threatening fans.
Odell Beckham almost getting kicked out of a game for breaking the NFL dress code with his socks? The Browns have that.
A coach who looks perpetually confused on sideline? Freddie Kitchens has mastered that. I'm telling you, this team is perfect for prime-time television.
The Browns' entire season has basically been a disaster, and a big part of that is because Kitchens seems to be slightly in over his head. It's a good thing for Kitchens that Browns fans aren't in charge of his job status, because if they were, I'm 99.8 percent sure he would have been fired already. If you're wondering how fans in Cleveland are feeling about Kitchens right now, here's a few tweets that basically sum up their thoughts.
The poll below says that 89 percent of fans in Cleveland want Kitchens fired, which is kind of crazy when you consider that it's nearly impossible to get that many of people to agree on anything. You can't even get 89 percent of people to agree that blue's a color, but apparently, you can get 89 percent of people to agree that Kitchens should be fired.
I can't remember the last time the Browns played in a somewhat important game this late in the season, but I think this one qualifies. Sure, it's only Week 10, and this game's not actually that important, but this counts as important to the Browns, because if they lose on Sunday, their hype train of a season will have gone straight off a cliff. Kitchens has been so bad that he might only end up coaching one season in Cleveland.
So can Kitchens and the Browns save their season?
If the Browns want to win on Sunday, they need to give the ball to Nick Chubb as often as possible. If the Bills have had one glaring weakness over the past few weeks, it's that they can't stop the run. Over their past three games, they've given up an average of 151.3 yards per game. Basically, the Browns' game plan should be so easy to put together that not even Kitchens will be able to blow it.
The Browns are 2-6, they haven't won a game at home and half the team's fan base hates the coach, but I'm going to pick Cleveland anyway. Freddie is going to throw the kitchens sink at the Bills. And just for the record, I didn't want to use that pun, but it's been burning a whole in my pocket for the past nine weeks, and Kitchens might not be around much longer, so I had to use it now.
The pick: Browns 22-19 over Bills
Kansas City at Tennessee
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Chiefs -4
Every week, there's at least one pick that makes me wish I had gotten a medical degree in college, and for the second straight week, that pick involves the Chiefs. If I had gotten a medical degree, then I would actually know if Patrick Mahomes has a chance of playing this week. Actually, I still probably wouldn't know unless I was allowed to examine him, and the Chiefs probably wouldn't let me examine him because that would be kind of weird, so I guess the medical degree wouldn't really have helped much after all.
For the second straight week, Mahomes' status for Sunday is up in the air, and for the second straight week, I'm going to be making two picks for this game: One for if Mahomes plays and one for if he doesn't play.
If Mahomes doesn't play, the Chiefs could be in trouble, and that's because the Titans always somehow manage to win at least one home game per year that's completely inexplicable. Last year, that win came in Week 10 against New England when the Titans thrashed the Patriots 34-10. I still have no idea how that happened. Tom Brady took a beating in that game and it's the same kind of beating that Matt Moore is going to take on Sunday if he plays. Moore took a beating against the Vikings -- he was sacked five times -- and unless the Chiefs sign five new offensive linemen before Sunday, I expect more of the same this week. Also, I feel like the Titans are still going to be slightly bitter about that time when Moore decided he'd rather sit out of football for a year than play for Tennessee.
That's a power move if I've ever seen one. Moore sat out of football during the 2018 season and didn't return until he signed with the Chiefs this past August. Anyway, let's hope Mahomes actually returns at some point so that I don't have to keep making two picks.
The pick (if Mahomes plays): Chiefs 30-20 over Titans
The pick (if Mahomes doesn't play): Titans 27-23 over Chiefs
Seattle (7-2) at San Francisco (8-0)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Point spread: 49ers -6
I've watched enough Seahawks games this year to know exactly how this game is going to play out, and that's because nearly every game goes the exact same way for Seattle: Things are usually mildly entertaining for three quarters before all hell breaks loose in the fourth quarter, and in most instances, the game usually ends with Russell Wilson leading his team to some sort of miraculous nail-biting win. I'll be honest, I get anxiety watching Seahawks games and I'm not even a Seahawks fan.
If was going to start a pharmaceutical company, my headquarters would definitely be in Seattle, because all I would need to do is sell anxiety medication to Seahawks fans and they would single-handedly keep me in business. I mean, it doesn't matter who the Seahawks are playing, the drama is real every week.
In Week 1, the Seahawks nearly gave their fans a heart attack before squeaking out a 21-20 win over a Bengals team that's currently 0-8. .
In Week 5, the Seahawks 30-29 win wasn't official until Greg Zuerlein missed a 44-yard field goal with just 11 seconds left to play.
The thing about the Seahawks though is that they've mostly been beating up on bad teams. Of their seven wins, only one came against a team that's actually above .500 right now (Rams). The Seahawks have only played two other teams that are above .500 -- the Ravens and Saints -- and they lost those games by a combined 20 points. Basically, the Seahawks have been struggling against good teams and the 49ers are a good team.
The pick: 49ers 30-27 over Seahawks
Lock of the Week (or is it upset of the week?)
Baltimore (6-2) at Cincinnati (0-8)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Ravens -10
I don't usually believe in trap games, but then I looked at the Ravens' schedule and now I might kind of believe in trap games. After knocking off the previously undefeated Patriots over the weekend, the Ravens now have to travel to Cincinnati, which will be followed by a game against the Houston Texans, who are currently in first place in the AFC South. I mean, let's be honest here, if your team is going to go out and do tequila shots at the bar the night before one of these three games, it's definitely going to be the one against the Bengals.
Generally, this would be the part where I fully explain why I think the Bengals could potentially pull off the upset in this trap week, but unless the Ravens forfeit, I don't actually think it's possible. For one, the Bengals are starting a rookie quarterback on Sunday. I would say that the Bengals could win if Ryan Finley is the next coming of Tom Brady, but even Tom Brady had some trouble against the Ravens, so I'm not expecting much from Finley.
The other problem for the Bengals in this game is that they give up 177.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks dead last in the NFL. The Ravens might not even have to throw a pass to win this game. Basically, if this is a trap game, it's the equivalent of using a mouse trap to catch a large bear, and the Bengals are not the large bear in this analogy.
The Bengals are the only team in the NFL without a win, and I don't see that changing this week. However, I do have some good news, Bengals fans: Your team is the best at losing, which is kind of a moral victory if you think about it. You always want to be the best at something.
The pick: Ravens 31-17 over Bengals
Lock of the week record: 8-1 straight up, 3-6 against the spread
NFL Week 10 picks: All the rest
Bears 20-17 over Lions
Saints 34-24 over Falcons
Giants 24-17 over Jets
Buccaneers 34-27 over Cardinals
Colts 23-16 over Dolphins
Packers 27-24 over Panthers
Rams 26-23 over Steelers
Vikings 34-31 over Cowboys
Best pick: Last week, I Sam Darnold throwing possibly the worst interception of the 2019 season? Of course I did. I had very low expectations for this game and they were all met before the first half was even over. Darnold trying to throw the ball like a shot-put was definitely the highlight/lowlight of the game for the Jets.would beat the Jets, and GUESS WHAT HAPPENED? The 0-7 Dolphins went out and beat the Jets. Now, did I know that the game was going to turn into a comedy of errors that included both teams missing a field goal, both teams getting safetied and
To be honest though, based on how badly Adam Gase has been coaching this year, there's a 50 percent chance that he actually designed that pass to be intercepted.
Worst pick: Every week I seem to make at least one pick that defies all logic, and last week, that was picking the Bears to beat the Eagles. Over the past four weeks, I'm convinced that the Bears would have been better off with an actual bear as their starting quarterback instead of Mitchell Trubisky. When I was making my picks last week, I don't think I took the time to fully appreciate just how bad Trubisky has been this year. After my picks came out last week, someone sent me a tweet about my Bears' pick that had six question marks in it, and it was at that point that I realized my pick was trash.
As if my pick wasn't bad enough, Trubisky somehow managed to make things worse when he finished the first half against the Eagles with just 24 passing yards. You can not convince me that an actual bear couldn't have also done that. Plus, if you sign an actual Bear to play quarterback, I'm assuming he would come at a much lower price than Trusbisky. You save money, you upgrade at quarterback, there's really no downside for the Bears here.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered if I actually know what I'm doing with these picks, here's what the best and worst individual team picks look like heading into Week 9 (All records listed are straight-up).
Teams I'm 9-0 picking this year: Patriots, Dolphins (8-0)
Teams I'm 8-1 picking this year: Redskins, Falcons (7-1), Jets (7-1), Lions (6-1-1).
Team I'm 3-5 picking this year: Buccaneers, 49ers.
Every other team is somewhere in-between.
Straight up in Week 9: 8-6
SU overall: 87-47-1
Against the spread in Week 9: 6-8
ATS overall: 65-69-1
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