NFL Week 10 picks: Bills upset Saints, Broncos stun Patriots in Denver
Wondering which NFL teams are going to win in Week 10? You've come to the right place to find out
I've seen "Fight Club" roughly 19 times in my life and I have to say, that movie is a kids' film compared to what went down in the NFL over the weekend.
We saw three fights, a head-butt, a cheap shot to the back and an old-fashioned chokehold, which ironically also kind of describes what usually goes down when my family gets together for Thanksgiving. We're having practice Thanksgiving this weekend just to make sure we're all on the same page this year.
Two players who weren't on the same page over the weekend were A.J. Green and Jalen Ramsey. In what will surely go down as the greatest fight in NFL history, Green used a chokehold on Ramsey that looks like it came straight out of a YMCA self defense class.
I have no idea, but I'm guessing it's because of the perfect form on that chokehold. It takes WWE wrestlers years of practice to master something like that. Green perfected it in three seconds.
Of course, Mike Evans. If you take someone out with a cheap shot to the back, you're going to get suspended 100 percent of the time, and that's exactly what Evans did to Saints rookie Marshon Lattimore.for his actions over the weekend was the one guy who went bonkers,
The good news for Evans is that his one-game suspension means he won't have to catch passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, which is arguably a win if you think about it.
One team that didn't get in a fight this week, or even put up a fight, was the New York Giants. I'm not really going to blame them for their loss though -- I'm going to blame Ben McAdoo's halftime speech, which might go down as the least inspirational words ever spoken.
That's a classic, "Ummm," and I'm not going to lie, I've used it before myself. I generally use it in any situation where I didn't do something I was supposed to do.
Sister: "John, did you pick up your brother from the airport?"
I can never remember to pick people up from the airport. I'm 90 percent sure Uber was invented by someone who got left at the airport.
Alright, enough jibber-jabber, let's get to the picks.
Actually, before we get to the picks, here's your weekly reminder that you can check out the picks from every CBSSports.com NFL Expert by clicking here. To be honest, you don't even need to click over this week because I actually had the best record of anyone here at CBSSports.com. Using my patented picking formula that mostly involves never taking the Browns, I was able to go 10-3 straight up in Week 9. That total includes two games -- Bills-Jets and Falcons-Panthers -- where I correctly picked the underdog to win, and i"m only mentioning that because I'm about to go underdog crazy this week.
As a matter of fact, I'm picking so many underdogs to win in Week 10 that I might actually get Underdog tattooed on me if all the picks pan out.
I'm thinking lower back.
Alright, let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 10 Picks: Underdog edition
New Orleans (6-2) at Buffalo (5-3)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Bills are the only team in the AFC that's still undefeated at home this year and I'm guessing it's because the bus ride from the visiting team's hotel to the stadium is the most intimidating 15-mile ride in the NFL. First, you have to go 14 miles through Buffalo, and then if that's not enough to make you want to forfeit the game, you have to drive by all the insane tailgaters at New Era Field.
I mean, how are you supposed to concentrate on football when you see fans setting themselves on fire and jumping through tables.
There's a good chance Bills fans won't actually be able to set themselves on fire this week and that's because it looks like there's going to be low temperatures and rain, according to the weather app on my phone, which is only right about 60 percent of the time.
The temperature is supposed to be in the low 40s, which I'm only mentioning because Drew Brees never has to play in temperatures that low. Since joining the Saints in 2006, Brees has only played a total of 11 regular season games when the temperature is 45 degrees or below and he's 4-7 in those games. Oh, and he hasn't played in a game this cold since 2014. The Saints are basically an indoor cat that's being let outside in cold weather this week and that never seems to work out well for the cat.
The pick: Bills 20-17 over Saints
L.A. Chargers (3-5) at Jacksonville (5-3)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Although Philip Rivers will probably never win a Super Bowl, I'm starting to think he doesn't even care about that because playing the Jaguars is basically his Super Bowl. Since 2010, Rivers is 6-0 against the Jags.
The last time the Chargers lost to the Jaguars, David Garrard was Jacksonville's starting quarterback. Can anyone guess what year that was? I'll give you a hint, it was the same year the "Alvin and the Chipmunks" movie came out.
You know what, that's a horrible hint, so why don't I just tell you: It was 2007. Since then, Rivers has dominated the Jaguars almost as badly as "Alvin and the Chipmunks" got dominated at the box office in 2007. I'm not sure how much money it made, but the movie was about chipmunks, so it couldn't have been much.
In Rivers' six wins over the Jaguars, he's thrown a combined 18 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Rivers is basically daring all of us to take the Jaguars here and I'm not going to do it. If the "Alvin and the Chipmunks" movie can spawn three sequels, then by God, Philip Rivers can waltz into Jacksonville and pick apart the NFL's best passing defense.
The pick: Chargers 19-17 over Jaguars
Minnesota (6-2) at Washington (4-4)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Every time the Redskins play a game, I always imagine what it would be like to watch them play while sitting on a couch with Kirk Cousins' agent. If I were that guy, I'd send Redskins owner Daniel Snyder a new contract demand EVERY time that Cousins throws a touchdown pass.
After Cousins led the Redskins to a wild comeback win over the Seahawks on Sunday, I would've sent Snyder an entire book of demands.
- Hey Dan, did you see that comeback? Great. We're going to need to add three zeroes and one extra year to that proposed contract extension.
- Also, let's up that signing bonus from $41 million to $81 million.
- Oh, and Kirk's wife would like free ice cream for life, so let's throw that in.
- Also, not sure if you heard, but the Cousins' just had a baby, and Kirk says you need to pay for the diapers. Not sure if that counts against the salary cap, though, so you'll need to hire someone to crunch the numbers there.
- Kirk will also need you to get MTV to reboot the show "Pimp My Ride" and then once that's done, Kirk will need to be on the show because he kinds of wants his conversion van pimped out.
Besides those things, I would also make demands for restaurant gift certificates and free premium cable. As you can clearly tell, I would be a fantastic agent. I think what I'm trying to say here is that Cousins' value is going to continue to skyrocket because he's going to beat the Seahawks and Vikings in consecutive weeks.
The pick: Redskins 23-20 over Vikings
Dallas (5-3) at Atlanta (4-4)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Welcome to Week 9 of the Ezekiel Elliott watch. For the ninth straight week, I have no idea if Elliott's going to play and for the ninth straight week, I'm totally regretting the fact that I didn't take a constitutional law class in college. Of course, whether or not Elliott plays doesn't actually matter here because there's no way I'm picking against Mr. November, Dak Prescott. Prescott has played a total of five games during the month of November in his career and not only has he gone 5-0, but he's thrown nine touchdown passes and zero interceptions combined in those games.
I'm so sold on this Mr. November thing that I'm going to the trademark office first thing Monday morning if Prescott leads the Cowboys to a win over the Falcons. Hopefully, Derek Jeter's Mr. November trademark from the 2001 World Series has expired by now.
I thought about picking the Falcons in this game, but lately, their season has turned into the NFL version of "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly" -- except minus the good because they've only been bad and ugly over the past few weeks. I didn't actually think a Super Bowl hangover was a real thing until Sunday, when I watched Julio Jones drop a pass that I think someone with an actual hangover might have caught.
I didn't even know Julio Jones was capable of dropping passes. By the way, I'm fully expecting a shootout here, which is bad news for the Falcons because that's basically writing your own death sentence against Mr. November.
The pick: Cowboys 34-31 over Falcons
New England (6-2) at Denver (3-5)
8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
After watching the Broncos for the past two years, I'm half-convinced that John Elway is drafting bad quarterbacks on purpose so that no one breaks any of his records in Denver. As a matter of fact, if it were up to Elway, the Broncos would probably be running an offense that doesn't even need a quarterback.
With no quarterback, the Broncos' season is on the verge of disaster, which is what the year will officially turn into if Denver loses this week. The bad news for the Broncos is that since the Patriots are coming off a bye, Bill Belichick has had an extra week to figure out how to stop a Broncos offense that he probably only needed four minutes to figure out. As a matter of fact, let's check in with Bill and see how his scouting has been going this week.
I didn't want to pick the Broncos in this game, but I think Belichick might have just talked me into it. Actually, my pick in this game has nothing to do with the Broncos' explosive offense and everything to do with the fact that the Patriots haven't faced a good defense this year. In eight games, New England has faced just one top-10 defense (Carolina) and they lost that game.
After getting embarrassed by the Eagles on Sunday, the Broncos defense is going to be out for blood, I'm just not sure if they're going to be out for Tom Brady's blood or Osweiler's blood because they've seemed pretty frustrated with their own offense, lately.
Normally, I would say there's no way Osweiler could lead the Broncos to a primetime win over the Patriots, but he's actually done it before. Back in 2015, Osweiler won his second career start when he led the Broncos to an overtime win over New England in a Sunday night game. If Osweiler beats Brady on Sunday, I think that makes him the new Eli Manning: The quarterback that Brady inexplicably can't beat.
The pick: Broncos 19-16 over Patriots
NFL Week 10 picks: All the rest
- Seahawks 24-16 over Cardinals
- Bears 16-13 over Packers
- Lions 30-20 over Browns
- Bengals 22-19 over Titans
- Steelers 27-17 over Colts
- Jets 30-24 over Buccaneers
- Rams 34-17 over Texans
- Giants 24-17 over 49ers
- Panthers 31-20 over Dolphins
Best pick: Last week, I said Jameis Winston gave on Sunday.and beat the Buccaneers and then guess what happened? The Saints scored 30 points and beat the Buccaneers. I don't want to take too much credit for this pick because this game was over before it even started thanks to what might have been . I'm not kidding, either, I've spent the past 48 hours Googling pregame speeches and I couldn't find anything that was even half as bad as the one
I mean, that's barely better than McAdoo's halftime speech. Unless you're eating a bowl of Alpha-Bits cereal, I'm not sure why anyone would ever want to eat a 'W,' or any letter, for that matter.
I'm not going to sit here and blame the loss on Winston's speech, but if DeSean Jackson's reaction was any indication, I think we can blame the loss on Winston's speech.
Winston won't be playing for at least the next two weeks due to a shoulder injury, which might actually be good news for the Bucs because that should give him ample time to work on his pregame speeches.
Worst pick: Last week, I spent three paragraphs babbling about how I shouldn't pick the Seahawks to win because of the curse of the Texans. If you don't pay much attention to curses, or the Texans, this is a situation where every team that plays the Texans loses the following week.
The Seahawks played the Texans in Week 8, so obviously I should've picked them to lose to the Redskins in Week 9, but I didn't, because I'm stubborn and because up until a week ago, I didn't believe in curses. However, I do now, which means I'm officially concerned for the following people: Tom Brady (Madden curse) and Jameis Winston (Ryan Fitzpatrick curse).
The curse lives on!— SB Nation (@SBNation) November 6, 2017
If your NFL team signs Ryan Fitzpatrick, the starting QB better watch out... pic.twitter.com/e4i1TgKzk5
As a matter of fact, I'm not even going to blame Winston for his poor pregame speech anymore, I'm just going to assume that was a side effect of the Fitzpatrick curse. Poor Jameis.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good (and bad) at picking, here's a quick look.
Teams I'm 8-1 picking this year: 49ers, Eagles, Cardinals (7-1), Saints (7-1), Browns (7-1), Lions (7-1)
Teams I'm 2-6 picking this year: Dolphins, Jaguars
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Straight up in Week 9: 10-3
SU overall: 82-50
Against the spread in Week 9: 7-5-1
ATS overall: 66-62-4
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