On the whole, Week 10 may have been one of the most thrilling slates we've seen this season as it relates to our little picks corner here on this fine website. While we can hang out hat our a strong 12-2 straight-up record last week, we had a couple of heartbreakers in our 6-5-3 ATS mark.
Yes, I, like many others, fell victim to Nick Chubb deciding to run out of bounds at the one-yard line instead of easily walking into the end zone to cover the three-point spread. I also had my jaw on the floor when Kyler Murray completed a Hail Mary to DeAndre Hopkins to win the game for Arizona, but taking a knee instead of netting the extra point had me draw even with Arizona -2. Credit to Matt Prater for booting the 59-yard game-winning field goal, but that only resulted in a draw for yours truly at Detroit -3 over Washington. It was a weekend with some seriously bad beats, but we were over .500 ATS and we were on the nose for the bulk of the Week 10 slate.
As we attempt to keep that positive momentum rolling and avoid more of those bad beats, here's a look at who I'm leaning towards heading into Week 11, starting with our five locks of the week.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Who'll cover the spread in Week 11? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and Kenny White join Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Locks of the Week
Kansas City at Las Vegas
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
I'm going with the revenge narrative here. The Raiders are responsible for the Chiefs' lone loss on the season, and their actions after that game seem to have irked Kansas City to the point that they are using it as bulletin board material for Week 11. As much of a surprise as the Raiders have been this season, K.C. is the superior club and will be extremely motivated coming into Sunday Night Football. Speaking of primetime, Patrick Mahomes has won and covered six straight on the national stage and is 9-3-1 ATS in his career. It's also unwise to bet against Andy Reid coming off of a bye. Under that circumstance, the Chiefs head coach is 18-3 SU and has covered in 70% of those contests.
Projected score: Kansas City 33, Las Vegas 20
My pick: Kansas City -6.5
Arizona at Seattle
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX, NFLN)
Arizona got the better of Seattle in their Week 7 matchup on Sunday Night Football, defeating their NFC West rival in overtime. That first loss of the year did send the Seahawks, who have now lost three of their last four, down a rather significant skid, exposing a soft secondary that has them ranked in the bottom half of the league. Russell Wilson has also come off his MVP-pace just a bit over the previous few outings. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray is willing his team into the thick of the division, including a miraculous effort by himself and receiver DeAndre Hopkins as they connected on a Hail Mary touchdown to defeat the Bills last week. I like the Cards to carry the momentum of that win against Buffalo into this contest with Seattle and continue to light up that secondary. Kyler Murray is also 3-0 ATS in primetime in his career and 2-0 ATS on short rest. Take the field goal lead and don't be afraid to throw a little on the moneyline either.
Projected score: Arizona 30, Seattle 28
My pick: Arizona +3
Cincinnati at Washington
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Despite the 2-6-1 record, the Bengals have been extremely friendly to those taking them to cover, owning a 6-3 ATS record heading into this matchup with Washington. While the franchise may be winless on the road in the past 18 contests away from Paul Brown Stadium, Cincy is 11-7 ATS over that streak. Not only do I expect the Bengals to cover, but they break that winless streak on the road against a Washington team that has only been able to beat teams in the NFC East. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in non-division games this year. Joe Burrow is simply too good and the offense is still a question mark for Washington, making this a clear smash play for the Bengals in my mind.
Projected score: Cincinnati 27, Washington 20
My pick: Cincinnati +1
Tennessee at Baltimore
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Both of these teams have struggled a bit as of late with the Titans losing three of their last four after starting 5-0 this season and the Ravens have lost two of their last three, including an upset against the Patriots last week. This playoff rematch from a year ago serves as a potential "get right" game for both sides, but only one club can come out on top. With that, I lean towards the Ravens, who you can make a case lost to Mother Nature last week in New England just as much as they did to the Patriots. That said, I like Ryan Tannehill, who is 2-0 on extended rest with the Titans, too keep this close alongside running back Derrick Henry, who rushed for 195 yards against Baltimore in the playoffs last year. The Ravens are 1-3 ATS in their last four games and 0-3 ATS in their last three games as a favorite.
Projected score: Baltimore 27, Tennessee 21
My pick: Tennessee +6.5
Atlanta at New Orleans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
With Drew Brees all but officially out for this game, that'll thrust Jameis Winston into the starting lineup for New Orleans and we'll probably also see some of Taysom Hill. I expect the road to be a bit bumpier for the Saints with Winston as oppose to the 5-0 SU record they sported when Teddy Bridgewater stepping in for an injured Brees last year. That said, I still like Alvin Kamara to lead the New Orleans offense to a win, but it'll be tight enough to take the points with Atlanta. Under Raheem Morris, the Falcons are 3-1 both SU and ATS this season. Matt Ryan's club is also 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
Projected score: New Orleans 21, Atlanta 17
My pick: Atlanta +5
Rest of the Bunch
New England at Houston
Projected score: New England 23, Houston 20
My pick: New England -2
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Projected score: Pittsburgh 27, Jacksonville 13
My pick: Pittsburgh -10
Philadelphia at Cleveland
Projected score: Cleveland 23, Philadelphia 21
My pick: Philadelphia +3
Detroit at Carolina
Projected score: Carolina 24, Detroit 21
My pick: Carolina +1
Miami at Denver
Projected score: Miami 26, Denver 17
My pick: Miami -3.5
Dallas at Minnesota
Projected score: Minnesota 28, Dallas 20
My pick: Minnesota -7.5
Green Bay at Indianapolis
Projected score: Green Bay 27, Indianapolis 24
My pick: Green Bay +2.5
L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay
Projected score: Tampa Bay 27, L.A. Rams 20
My pick: Tampa Bay -3.5
Against the spread in Week 10: 6-5-3
ATS overall: 75-66-5
Straight up in Week 10: 12-2
SU overall: 98-47-1