Week 10 was a nightmare. Favorites went 9-5 against the spread, and while that may not sound surprising, favorites have covered just 44 percent of the time this season! A healthy dose of my picks have been centered around underdogs every week, so I'm looking to move on as quickly as possible from last Sunday. As far as some of the favorites I missed, I was shocked that Jake Luton and the Jacksonville Jaguars gave the Green Bay Packers a close game and that the football gods still support the New England Patriots. Did you see the monsoon that started when Lamar Jackson was trying to orchestrate a game-winning drive? And did you see how the weather cleared up as soon as the final whistle blew? Ridiculous!
We have some pretty intriguing games this week, as the Seattle Seahawks look to avenge their loss against the Arizona Cardinals last month, and the New Orleans Saints are forced to take on a divisional opponent without Drew Brees. Below I will give you my top five picks, followed by the rest of the bunch. Let's go ahead and jump in.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 24-25-1
Overall ATS record: 78-62-5
Who'll cover the spread in Week 11? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and Kenny White join Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Depending on where you grabbed the Texans last week against the Cleveland Browns, they are either 1-8 against the spread this season, or 2-7 against the spread. To be honest, I think Houston's 2-7 straight-up record is not indicative of how competitive they have been this season, but this specific matchup is rough. New England leads the NFL in rushes per game (33.4) and rush percentage (52%), while Houston's defense ranks last in yards allowed per rush (5.2) and rush yards allowed per game (167.4). The Patriots are ineffective when it comes to passing the ball, so they rely on the ground game. Unfortunately, as the stats indicate, the Texans can't stop the run.
Projected score: Patriots 27-24
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Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Don't look now, but the Dolphins are on a five-game win streak. Three of those are thanks to their rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is also 3-0 against the spread since taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins have only been favored twice under Brian Flores, but have covered both times! As for the Broncos, Drew Lock is banged up and threw four interceptions against the Las Vegas Raiders last week, as the Broncos lost by 25 points. The second-year quarterback has struggled as of late, as he ranks in the bottom two in completion percentage, passer rating and interception rate this season. If I had to choose a lock of the week, it's probably the Dolphins.
Projected score: Dolphins 28-20
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Chargers are 0-3 against the spread since starting 5-1 this season. Additionally, all seven of their straight-up losses have come by one possession, which has them on-pace to lead the NFL in one-possession losses for the second straight season! After their 29-21 loss to the Dolphins last week, rookie quarterback Justin Herbert decided to stop messing around and make a change.
Make all the jokes you want about his haircut, but to me it signals that he's all about business now. Last week, he became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to record two or more passing touchdowns in six straight games, and he leads all rookies with 19 touchdown passes. The Jets are winless for a reason, and are 2-7 against the spread. Joe Flacco is starting this week, so I think the Chargers can win with ease.
Projected score: Chargers 30-17
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Packers did let me down last week, but they are 10-0 against the spread following their last 10 against-the-spread losses. Green Bay is 7-2 overall, and tied for third in the league with a 6-3 record against the spread. They have just found ways to win this season, and the fact that they are underdogs in this matchup makes me want to pick the Packers even more. Under head coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 5-1 against the spread as an underdog and are 2-0 against the spread as underdogs this season. Dalvin Cook exploited Green Bay's run defense a couple of weeks ago, but Indianapolis has the No. 20 rushing offense in the league.
Projected score: Packers 31-26
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The last time the Buccaneers hosted a primetime game, it didn't go so well. A couple weeks ago, Brees and the Saints blew out the Bucs, 38-3. However, Tom Brady and Co. were able to rebound in Week 10, as they registered a dominant 46-23 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Brady has only faced the Sean McVay-led Rams once in his career -- and that was in Super Bowl LIII. Brady and the Patriots won 13-3, and covered the two-point spread. There's no doubt this Rams team is very sound on both sides of the ball, but Tampa Bay averages about six points more than L.A. per game, and the Buccaneers appear to be more than motivated to prove on a national stage that they are indeed a legitimate contender.
Projected score: Buccaneers 30-24
Other Week 10 picks
Cardinals (+3) 35-31 over Seahawks
Panthers (-3) 28-24 over Lions
Browns (-3) 24-20 over Eagles
Steelers (-10) 33-21 over Jaguars
Ravens (-6.5) 28-21 over Titans
Bengals (+1) 27-26 over Washington
Saints 31-28 over Falcons (+5)
Vikings 30-24 over Cowboys (+7)
Chiefs (-6.5) 35-28 over Raiders