I'm never going to forgive you, Nick Chubb. Your decision to do the right thing last week and step out of bounds rather than score a touchdown might have helped secure a win for your team, but it left me with a push. That push kept me from a winning week overall, as I finished 1-1-1.
It was incredibly selfish of you, Nick Chubb. I hope you get a papercut on one of your knuckles, and it annoys you for a minimum of two days.
Anyway, while Nick Chubb sits and thinks about what he's done, it's time for us to move on to our picks for Week 11.
Who'll cover the spread in Week 11? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and Kenny White join Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
I had been eyeing the Falcons in this spot since last week, but once it was announced that Drew Brees would be missing the game, the spread lost all its value. However, the reason I liked the Falcons so much is not affected by Drew Brees' absence. No, I like the Falcons in this spot because Matt Ryan has lit the Saints defense up in recent years. In his last four starts against New Orleans, Ryan has thrown for 1,245 yards, 11 touchdowns and only four interceptions. In this spot, the Falcons are coming off a bye and should have both Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones at full strength. I don't know what to expect from the Falcons defense in this spot, but I do think the Falcons will put points on the board regardless.
Projected score: Saints 27, Falcons 24
Best bet: Falcons Over 22.5 (-115)
When it comes to matchups between strong defenses and explosive offenses, I lean toward the offense. That's what I'm doing here, and getting to do so while backing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers is just a bonus. Yes, the Colts have a terrific defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in DVOA. However, while the Colts have a strong pass defense overall, they don't have a great pass rush and don't put a lot of pressure on the QB. The last thing I want to give Aaron Rodgers is time to survey the field. I don't care how good your defense is; if Rodgers has time, he'll pick you apart. On the other side, Green Bay's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but the Colts offense has struggled to run the ball, and Philip Rivers seems to get a little worse every week.
Projected score: Packers 27, Colts 24
Best bet: Packers +105
I have absolutely no problem fading the Cowboys right now. Nothing that has happened to this team in recent months has been a good development. The Vikings, meanwhile, are playing well right now. So well that Kirk Cousins even managed to win a game on a Monday night for the first time in his career. Now the Vikings return home where Cousins has been much better this season. This year, Cousins is averaging 268.3 yards per game in four home games and has tossed 11 touchdowns. Compare that to his road splits where he's averaging only 214.8 yards per start and has six touchdown passes in five games. Also, Dalvin Cook has been eating bad run defenses alive all season long, and Dallas' defense ranks 28th in DVOA against the run. Put it on purple.
Projected score: Vikings 28, Cowboys 17
Best bet: Vikings -7 (-110)