We're officially in a slump after the Ravens failed to deliver a win on Sunday night, which pushed the Teaser of the Week down to 5-4-1 after a tremendous start to the year. We did hit five of our other six options including No. 2 through 4, so if you were able to sniff out the Ravens as a poor teaser option, you likely were able to cash.
Let's stick with the Sunday Night football matchup for our top option in Week 11 and tease the Chiefs down to -0.5 on the road against the Raiders. As you'll probably recall, the Raiders are the only team to beat Andy Reid's squad this year, and the Chiefs will throw everything they can into this game to ensure they don't get swept and open the door for Las Vegas in the division. Reid is 18-3 straight up after a regular-season bye, and we should expect he walks away from this one with another win.
I've done the legwork of going through all the lines as of Tuesday night and identifying the best teasing opportunities. Below, I've ranked all the sides I think are in play for teasers this week, considering only the standard six-point teasers. You can take the top two options and put them together for my Teaser of the Week, or you can be bold and try and hit a bigger payout.
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Ranking teaser options
1. Chiefs -0.5 at Raiders
The Raiders defense had a huge game last week, matching their season-long total with five turnovers while holding the Broncos to just 12 points. But the rested Chiefs are not the Broncos, and it's hard to see a Raiders defense that ranks 28th in points allowed per drive getting many stops at all this week. Even if the Raiders offense has another big game, Patrick Mahomes should lead his team to victory in the end.
The Colts defense has been rounding into form since the bye, but I find it hard to believe Indianapolis is going to beat a good Green Bay team by more than one score. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 26 touchdowns against just three interceptions as he leads an offense that ranks second in DVOA on the season, while Philip Rivers has been inconsistent while leading a Colts offense that ranks 18th in DVOA. As long as the Packers defense isn't outright terrible, this should be an easy cover for us.
This isn't a particularly tease-able number at first glance, but I do think there's value going through both seven and 10 here. Atlanta has stepped up under Raheem Morris, with the Falcons winning three of their last four games, and now they get to face a Saints offense that won't have Drew Brees. The Saints famously went 5-0 SU and ATS under Teddy Bridgewater last year while Brees was hurt, but that was due to a lot of overadjusted lines, as they only won one of those games by more than one score. This line hasn't been adjusted much at all, and the Falcons should be able to keep it close.
The Vikings offense is on a roll and should have no problem finding success against a Cowboys front that ranks 30th in yards per rush allowed. However, with Andy Dalton expected to return, it's possible the Cowboys' talented trio of receivers is able to overwhelm Minnesota's secondary and pull off an upset win. So this is a good option considering we're going through the key numbers of 3 and 7, but not a great one if the Vikings defense can't hold up its end of the bargain.
The Cardinals are playing much better than the Seahawks right now, and it's hard to see them losing by double-digits while facing a defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone this year. Even if the Seattle offense gets back on track, this is going to be a one-score game either way. I think our options starting with this pick are quite a bit shakier than our first four options, so consider this a bridge to the good, not great section of our rankings.
Yes, this should probably be much higher. But if you're looking for a team to fall flat on its face and give a winless team its first victory, aren't the Chargers one of your top options? If they can lose to a truly awful 0-13 Browns team a few years back, they can certainly lose this game against a Jets offense that finally showed something before its bye and finally has a healthy group of skill position players. So tread carefully with this one.
7. Ravens -0.5 at Titans
The loss last week has me gun shy with the Ravens, as they should be able to have a lot of success against a mediocre Titans defense while leaning on their elite defense to slow down a Titans attack that has had issues against good stop units. But Baltimore's injuries on offense and their inability to snap a football are more reasons to exercise some caution with this Ravens team.
The Texans were favorites in this matchup on the lookahead line before the Patriots upset the Ravens on national TV, so it's likely we're getting a lot of line value by teasing this one up. But the Texans defense is terrible at stopping the run, and even though New England's defense has struggled this year, I don't fully trust Houston to draw up a logical gameplan to beat them. So the line movement factor sneaks this one into our rankings, but I don't love it if I'm being honest.
Lines to avoid teasing
The Steelers seem like a safe teaser team, but we know they can come out playing like zombies in spots where they're big favorites on the road. There are enough other solid options this week to stick the Steelers in the also-rans section as a result.
Bengals at Washington (-1)
If one of these teams becomes a favorite of more than a point, the underdog becomes a teaser candidate to get through 3 and 7. I'd be happier doing that with the Bengals, as the Washington pass defense hasn't lived up to its billing in recent weeks.
You can probably chalk up the Philadelphia offense's struggles last week to knocking off the rust, but I'm still not comfortable teasing this group up to +9 with how they've performed this year.
Rams at Buccaneers (-3.5)
The Rams feel like a solid teaser play up to +9.5, until the Bucs get a defensive score and you realize you need Jared Goff to go toe-to-toe with Tom Brady over the rest of the game. I'm going to pass on that sweat on Monday night and not worry about hoping my teaser hits.
Dolphins (-3.5) at Broncos
We're not going to tease the Dolphins through zero and not get to +3, and we're not going to tease the Broncos with Drew Lock banged up and the Miami defense on a roll. So this is a clear stayaway for teasers.
With the health of the quarterbacks in this game up in the air, it's hard to get a feel of what the line will be for this game. If Teddy Bridgewater is out and the Lions are 'dogs, they become a great teaser play.