NFL Week 12 early odds: Browns open as rare double-digit favorite in first game since helmet fight suspensions
Here's an early look at the lines for all NFL games being played in Week 12
In the early odds for Week 12, the Browns have opened as a 10.5-point favorite, which is mostly notable because the Browns are rarely ever favored by double digits. As a matter of fact, since returning to the NFL in 1999, this week will mark just the third time that the Browns have been favored by 10 or more points in a game, according to Pro Football Reference.
That's three times in 20 years. To put that in perspective, the Patriots have been favored by double digits more times in 2019 (four) than the Browns have since 1999 (three).
The Browns are favored by 10.5 points despite the fact that they'll be missing two defensive starters -- Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi -- who were both suspended for the role they played during the Browns' Week 11 brawl against the Steelers that featured Garrett at Mason Rudolph. Garrett while Ogunjobi will only have to sit out one game.
The two previous times where the Browns were favored big came in 2007 and 2018. In the 2007 game, the Brown covered as an 11.5-point favorite in a 20-7 win over the 49ers. In the 2018 game, the Browns beat the Bengals 26-18, but didn't cover the 10-point spread.
The Browns are the only team this week that's favored by double digits; to find out the other lines for Week 12, let's get to the early odds.
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By the way, if you're thinking about laying any money on this week's slate of games, you need to make sure to check out the statistical model over at SportsLine. This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 12 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. To check out the picks for Week 11, make sure to click here.
Alright, let's get to the odds.
NFL Week 12 early odds
(All lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted. All betting trends reflect regular season games only)
Opening line: Texans, -3.5
In the unpredictable AFC South, the one thing that has been predictable is Indianapolis beating Houston. Not only have the Colts won four of the of their past five games against the Texans, but they're also 9-3-1 ATS against Houston since 2013. The total includes a win earlier this season when the Colts beat the Texans 30-23 as a 1.5-point favorite. The Colts have been covering machines on the road, going 4-1-1 in their past six games (4-2 straight-up). As for the Texans, they're 9-2 straight-up in their past 11 home games, but one of those two losses did come against Indy.
Buccaneers (3-7) at Falcons (3-7)
Opening line: Falcons, -5
For the third straight week, the Falcons are playing a divisional opponent, and for the third straight week, it might be a good idea to bet on them to win straight up. For one, the Falcons have won five straight against the Buccaneers while going 3-2 ATS in those games. The Falcons are also 14-4 straight-up in their past 18 games against NFC South teams (11-7 ATS). As for the Bucs, not only are they 0-3 both ATS and straight-up in their past three road games, but they're also 2-8 ATS on the season, which is the worst mark of any team in the NFL this year.
Opening line: Bills, -4.5
The Broncos haven't been winning a lot on the road this year, but they have been covering. The Broncos have covered in three straight road games, including Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Vikings. However, the team is just 1-5 straight-up in their past six games away from Denver. They're also 2-7 straight-up in their past nine games played in the Eastern Time Zone (3-6 ATS). As for the Bills, they're 8-2 straight-up in their past 10 home games where they've been favored by four or more points, but just 6-5 ATS. The Bills have been a safe bet in this series recently: Since 2007, these two teams have played five times and the Bills have gone 5-0 ATS in those games.
Opening line: Bears, -7
The Giants haven't been winning on the road lately, but they have been covering. In their past 11 road games, the Giants are just 3-8 straight-up, but they are 8-3 ATS. This game marks the third time this year that the Giants have been an underdog of seven or more points and in the previous two games, they went 0-2 both straight-up and ATS. Including those two games, the Giants are 3-7 ATS on the season, which is tied for the second worst mark in the NFL. As for the Bears, they've covered the past three games where they were favored by seven or more. The Bears are also 5-2 both straight-up and ATS in the month of November under Matt Nagy, which includes not covering in Sunday's loss to the Rams.
Steelers (5-5) at Bengals (0-10)
Opening line: Steelers, -7
This probably isn't the week you want to be betting on the Bengals to get their first win. Not only have the Steelers won eight straight against Cincinnati, but they've gone 16-4 straight-up in the past 20 games between these two teams (12-7-1 ATS). Although the Bengals have been horrible over the past few years, they do seem to do a good job of covering when they're an underdog of a touchdown or more. Since 2017, the Bengals have been an underdog of seven or more points a total of 11 times, and although they've gone 1-10 straight-up in those games, they've also gone an impressive 8-3 ATS, a total the includes Sunday's game in Oakland when they covered as a 10.5-point dog. These two teams played back in Week 4 with the Steelers easily covering as a 3.5-point favorite in a 27-3 win.
Dolphins (2-8) at Browns (4-6)
Opening line: Browns, -10.5
You might want to check the forecast before betting this game. The temperature is expected to be in the low 40s, which could be a problem for the Dolphins. Since 2014, the Dolphins are 3-7 both straight-up and ATS when the kickoff temperature is 45 degrees or below. This game will mark the seventh time the Dolphins have been a double-digit underdog this year and although they started 0-3 ATS in those games, they've covered in three straight. Not to mention, they also pulled off an upset earlier this year when they beat the Colts 16-12 as an 11-point dog. Also, the Dolphins have covered in five of their past six games. As for the Browns, they're 4-1 straight-up in their past five November homes games (3-1-1). For the season, the Browns are 3-6-1 ATS, which is tied for the third-worst mark in the NFL.
Opening line: Saints, -9
Over the past five years, the Panthers have been upset specialists when they're a big underdog on the road. Since 2014, the Panthers have gone 5-2-1 straight-up and 6-2 ATS when they're an underdog of seven or more points in a road game. Of course, this might not want to be the game where you bet that upset, and that's because the game is in New Orleans, where the Saints are 17-3 straight-up in their past 20 home games (12-8 ATS). The Saints are also 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against the Panthers, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight games overall, including Sunday's win over the Bucs.
Opening line: Raiders, -3
If you're wondering why the point spread is so small here, it's probably because of how much the Raiders have struggled in the Eastern Time Zone. Since 2017, the Raiders are 2-6 in Eastern time and 2-5-1 ATS. The thing about the Raiders though, is that they're pretty bad on the road in any time zone, going 2-13 straight-up and 5-10 ATS in their past 15 games played away from Oakland. If the Raiders are going to fix their road woes, New York is probably a good place to do it. The Jets are just 2-8 straight-up and 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 home games.
Opening line: Eagles, -2.5
We just mentioned how bad the Raiders have been in the Eastern Time Zone; well, the Seahawks have basically been the opposite as they've been one of the few West Coast teams that has actually had some success in Eastern time. Since 2013, the Seahawks have played a total of 19 games in the Eastern Time Zone and they've gone 16-3 straight-up and 13-5-1 ATS. As for the Eagles, they've been struggling to cover the spread in home games. In their past 15 games at Lincoln Financial Field, the Eagles are just 5-10 ATS, a total that includes Sunday's loss to the Patriots. The Eagles are also 0-4 both straight-up and ATS in their past four games against the Seahawks.
Opening line: Lions, -3.5
If there's one team that doesn't seem to get any advantage from its home-field advantage, it's the Washington Redskins. Not only have the Redskins lost nine straight at home, but they're also just 2-7 ATS in those games. The Redskins are also 3-7 ATS on the season, which is tied for the second worst mark in the NFL. As for the Lions, they've actually done pretty well as a road favorite, going 5-1-1 straight-up the past seven times that it's happened (4-2-1 ATS).
Opening line: Titans, -3
The Jaguars always seem to struggle against divisional opponents, as you may or may not have noticed when they got rolled by the Colts on Sunday. Including that loss, the Jags are just 2-9 straight up in their past 11 games against AFC South teams (3-7-1 ATS), although one of those wins did come against the Titans. As for the Titans, they're 6-2 both straight-up and ATS in their past eight games against the Jags. Tennessee has also won three straight games at home while going 2-0-1 ATS in those games.
Cowboys (6-4) at Patriots (9-1)
Opening line: Patriots, -6.5
The Patriots tend to dominate everyone, but they've been especially dominant against NFC teams. In their past 13 games against NFC teams, which includes Sunday's win over the Eagles, the Patriots have gone 11-2 both straight up and ATS. That total includes winning and covering in four straight home games against NFC teams. The Patriots are also 7-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past eight home games overall. As for the Cowboys, they've lost their last three road games against AFC teams, which includes a 24-22 loss to the Jets in a game where the Cowboys were favored by a touchdown. One thing to like about the Cowboys is that they've won their last three games when they were an underdog of six or more points.
Packers (8-2) at 49ers (9-1)
Opening line: 49ers, -3
Although Aaron Rodgers is from California, he doesn't seem to play well in the Pacific Time Zone. Since 2012, the Packers are 2-6 straight-up out west (3-5-1 ATS), a total that includes an ugly 26-11 loss to the Chargers earlier this season. The Packers are also 2-9 straight-up in the past 11 games where they've been an underdog of three or more points, although both of those wins did come this year (Cowboys, Bears). As for the 49ers, they've actually struggled in home primetime games, going 4-8 straight-up over the past five years. This game will mark the first time since 2014 that the 49ers have played a home game on a Sunday night.
Ravens (8-2) at Rams (6-4)
Opening line: Ravens, -2.5
Sean McVay's amazing streak ended this year, but it's still worth noting: Since McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams have gone 10-1 straight-up against AFC teams (7-3-1 ATS). That mark includes a 5-0 record at home (4-0-1 ATS). Of course, the Ravens won't be intimidated and that's because they've won four in a row against NFC teams and three in a row on the west coast. Another thing working in the Ravens' favor is the fact that the Rams are 0-6 straight-up and 0-5-1 ATS in their past six games as a home underdog.
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