We had some absolute thrillers this weekend in the NFL! Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans downed the Baltimore Ravens in overtime, their AFC South rivals, the Indianapolis Colts, also scored an overtime victory over the Green Bay Packers and the Las Vegas Raiders again took the Kansas City Chiefs down to the wire, but Patrick Mahomes threw a game-winning score to finally get revenge over his rivals. We also had some shocking losses, such as the Miami Dolphins losing for the first time as a favorite in the Brian Flores era to Drew Lock and the Denver Broncos, and the Dallas Cowboys were able to acquire their first road victory of the 2020 season with a win over the Minnesota Vikings. Let's take a look at how Vegas reacted to some of these big games.
On Friday, we took a look at the lookahead lines for Week 12, which William Hill Sportsbook had available for anyone paying attention beyond the current week. Now that we have officially entered Week 12, we have seen some line movement. Below, we'll take a look at the biggest movers of the week from the lookahead numbers and examine why the line has moved and whether there's value in fading said move. But first, here's the current spread, the line that re-opened on Sunday evening and the lookahead number for every matchup. All NFL odds come courtesy of William Hill.
Week 12 line snapshot
HOU at DET
WAS at DAL
BAL at PIT
LAC at BUF
MIA at NYJ
AZ at NE
NYG at CIN
LV at ATL
CLE at JAX
CAR at MIN
TEN at IND
NO at DEN
SF at LAR
KC at TB
CHI at GB
SEA at PHI
Washington at Cowboys
Current: DAL -3 | Reopen: DAL -2.5 | Lookahead: DAL -1
Why it moved: The Cowboys won their first game since Week 5 and their first road contest of the season on Sunday, as they downed the Vikings by a score of 31-28. It was a solid team effort, as Ezekiel Elliott crossed the 100-yard mark on the ground for the first time this season and caught a touchdown pass, Andy Dalton threw for three scores and both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb made plays in the receiving game. All of a sudden, all four teams in the NFC East enter Week 12 with three wins. It's anyone's division for the taking, but the Cowboys' win on Sunday certainly gave them a boost in the court of public opinion. The Cowboys are out for some revenge this Thanksgiving. Last month, Washington dominated Dallas, 25-3, and also knocked Dalton out of the game with a nasty concussion. A divisional win could potentially put Dallas into first place in the NFC East, despite being in last place just a week prior.
Fade the move? I'm excited for this matchup, but I do find myself leaning towards the Cowboys now as well. Washington's only impressive win this season came against Dallas -- when the Cowboys were still trying to figure out life without Dak Prescott. It's hard to be impressed with Washington's 20-9 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday since it felt like Zac Taylor's squad was outplaying them in every way in the first half. They needed to knock rookie phenom Joe Burrow out of the game to secure the win, and unfortunately, that's exactly what happened.
Giants at Bengals
Current: NYG -5.5 | Reopen: NYG -5.5 | Lookahead: CIN -2.5
Why it moved: Burrow went down with what appeared to be a serious knee injury during the loss to Washington on Sunday, and unfortunately, a Monday MRI confirmed what everyone was fearing. According to CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora, the MRI confirmed Burrow tore the MCL in his left knee in addition to the ACL. He will now undergo reconstructive surgery, and rehab for 2021. Burrow was the main reason this Bengals team was competitive, as he threw for 300 or more yards a total of five times in his first nine games. That's tied for the second-most in NFL history by a rookie. With Burrow now sidelined, expect Ryan Finley to take over as the Bengals' new starting quarterback. In limited action on Sunday, he completed 3 of 10 passes for 30 yards and an interception.
Fade the move? I don't think you have a choice: You're going to have to ride with the Giants. With Burrow now gone for the year and Joe Mixon on IR, this Bengals team is going to be one of the worst in the league. The Giants aren't going to be competing for a Super Bowl this year, but they are a touchdown better than the Bengals.
Raiders at Falcons
Current: LV -3 | Reopen: LV -3 | Lookahead: PICK
Why it moved: The Raiders may have lost to the Chiefs by four points on Sunday night, but it felt like a win in some ways. The Raiders won their first matchup with the Chiefs earlier this year, and then Mahomes needed a game-winning score to put them away this time around. This was the Raiders' first loss in four weeks, and they are becoming one of the more consistent teams in the league. It's also worth noting that Derek Carr has been playing extremely well. As for the Falcons, they don't have the most formidable defense in the league by any means, but they had to be excited about the opportunity to face off against a tight end/special teams weapon who was making his first-ever start at quarterback. Instead, Taysom Hill went out and completed 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards and also rushed for 51 yards and two touchdowns while the New Orleans Saints cruised to a 15-point victory. Matt Ryan also struggled mightily, as he completed just 19 of 37 passes for 232 yards and threw two interceptions. It was a horrible outing for the Falcons all around.
Fade the move? I won't be fading this line move. Some may think that the Raiders could drop a game after an emotional loss, but I view it differently. I think the Raiders feel like they are one of the better teams in the league, and they want to take out their anger on the lowly Falcons.