NFL Week 12 picks: Patriots won't stop Broncos offense

New England will have a tough time stopping Denver's offense. (USATSI)
New England will have a tough time stopping Denver's offense. (USATSI)

Each week, we'll take the best -- and most clever -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.

Game One: Patriots +2.5 vs. Broncos
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 5-4 Overall: 5-4
Home: 4-1 Home: 3-2
Away: 1-3 Away: 2-2
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 16th Pass defense: 28th
Rush offense: 9th Rush defense: 4th
Pass defense: 12th Pass offense: 1st
Rush defense: 25th Rush offense: 19th

Verdict: For the first time since 2005, the Patriots are underdogs at home, and the last time New England found itself in this position, Peyton Manning and the Colts walked away from the game with a 40-21 victory. I don't expect the score to be quite so lopsided this time, but Manning and his new team will win and cover the spread. The Denver offense is too good to be contained for 60 minutes, and though the Patriots aren't half-bad at defending the pass, Manning will be too much for New England.

Game Two: Cardinals -2.5 vs. Colts
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 5-4 Overall: 5-4
Home: 3-2 Home: 2-3
Away: 2-2 Away: 3-1
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 15th Pass defense: 16th
Rush offense: 24th Rush defense: 26th
Pass defense: 20th Pass offense: 17th
Rush defense: 2nd Rush offense: 14th

Verdict: At -1.5, I clearly loved the Cardinals in this matchup -- as you can see here. Now that the line is -2.5, I still like Arizona. I just don't love the Cardinals anymore. Either way, I'm not going to change my original pick. I'm still going with Arizona, mostly because the Colts have been terrible in the first half of games lately and because the Cardinals defense is so strong. If Indianapolis falls behind early vs. Arizona, the Colts will have a tough time catching up.

Game Three (largest spread of week): Texans -10.5 vs. Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 2-7 Overall: 2-7
Home: 0-4 Home: 0-4
Away: 2-3 Away: 2-3
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 9th Pass defense: 24th
Rush offense: 12th Rush defense: 30th
Pass defense: 1st Pass offense: 22nd
Rush defense: 21srt Rush offense: 30th

Verdict: What does it say about your 1-9 team when you're more than a 10-point underdog to a team that's 2-8 and having one of the most disappointing seasons in football? It means that Las Vegas doesn't have much faith in anything you're doing. That's where Jacksonville finds itself, even though it's only two weeks removed from its first (and maybe only?) victory of the season. But here's why I like the Jaguars to cover. Don't snicker, but they're playing their best football of the season, beating Tennessee and building a lead vs. the Cardinals in the first half last week. And Houston is poor enough to allow Jacksonville to stay close.


Who will record more receiving yards in Week 12?         

Wes Welker (DEN) WR   -140 (5/7)

Danny Amendola (NE) WR   +110 (11/10)

Though Welker is probable to play after suffering a concussion last week, I don't think he'll be as effective this week. Besides, Manning has so many other weapons to use. I'd go with Amendola.

Last week: 1-2 against the spread; 1-1 on prop bets. Overall this year: 18-15 against the spread, 13-12 on prop bets. Last two years: 44-50 against the spread; 47-29-1 on prop bets.

See my picks and all the experts here.

Follow Josh Katzowitz on Google+

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