Could any of the three games I've got in this week's column be pushed back until Wednesday afternoon? Possibly! It seems everything is on the table during the 2020 NFL season. Though, now that I think about it, there's no way we'll have a game on Wednesday afternoon. There aren't any Christmas tree lighting ceremonies to televise on Wednesday, so if the NFL has to postpone a game until then, it'll be on in primetime.
Anyway, you don't have to worry about what day any of the following games are played on. As long as they're played, the picks still stand. The Process works seven days a week.
Raiders at Jets
Last week, I told you to take the Falcons and the points at home against the Raiders. My reasoning was simple. The Falcons weren't as bad as their record suggested, and after the Raiders nearly beat the Chiefs for a second time this season, they were being overvalued. Well, while I saw the Falcons possibly winning the game, I did not see a 43-6 destruction coming. Simply put, nothing went right for the Raiders in Atlanta, and a snowball quickly became an avalanche, which is excellent news for us because it allows us to capitalize on an overcorrection on the other side. The Falcons were better than their record said. The Jets aren't. They are every bit of their 0-11 record. They might have looked semi-competent against the Chargers and Patriots, but that was the apex of their season. They're still a team that has lost 11 games by an average of 15.4 points per game, so if I can get the Raiders as a single-digit favorite in this spot, I'm all over it.
Projected score: Raiders 28, Jets 16
Best bet: Raiders -8 (-110)
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Lions at Bears
The Bears aren't nearly as bad as they looked during a 41-25 loss to the Packers last week, but that doesn't mean they're good, either. They're merely below average, and I am not shy about fading below-average teams when they're favored against anybody. Even if anybody is a Detroit Lions team that just fired its coach. Based on the reaction to the news from some former Lions, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of players in that Detroit locker room are happy about the decision, and we could see that new coach bounce in Chicago this weekend. I'm officially advising you to take the points, but if the Bears are without Akiem Hicks again this weekend, I'd strongly consider taking the Lions straight up. Hicks is that important to the Bears defense.
Projected Score: Lions 23, Bears 20
Best bet: Lions +3 (-110)
Patriots at Chargers
Believe me when I tell you that I'm not excited to be betting on the Patriots right now, but this is an excellent spot to do so. These two teams are similar in many ways when you look at the numbers, but this matchup tilts toward New England in my mind. The biggest reason for this is that the Chargers defense ranks 31st in the NFL in Football Outsiders' Rush DVOA metric. That's not good, considering they'll be going against a Patriots offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in Rush DVOA on offense. Also, considering this game is a pick-em, we can expect it to be close. The Chargers are awful in close games. They're 2-7 in one-score games this season and 13-22 in them since Anthony Lynn took over in 2017.
Projected score: Patriots 24, Chargers 23
Best bet: Patriots (-110)
Record | Units | |
Last Week | 1-1-1 | -0.1 |
Season | 17-16-3 | -0.6 |
