Week 12 of the 2020 NFL season is officially in the books, and it was the longest week in NFL history. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers finally wrapped up the current week on Wednesday, as Ben Roethlisberger and Co. escaped with a 19-14 win. As for my picks, I'm dominating when it comes to straight-up but have been very unlucky when it comes to against the spread. After spending virtually the entire game up double digits, the Kansas City Chiefs couldn't cover 3.5 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield's inaccuracy on third and inches in the fourth quarter cost me a cover against the Jacksonville Jaguars and then Isaiah Simmons cost me a potential win thanks to a questionable penalty which led to a game-winning field goal for the New England Patriots. Just brutal losses. However, we did call the Tennessee Titans upsetting the Indianapolis Colts and the Carolina Panthers giving the Minnesota Vikings a close game.
Unfortunately, we get no "Thursday Night Football" this week, but there are still plenty of other matchups to get excited for. Below I will give you my top five picks of Week 13, followed by the rest of the bunch. Let's jump in.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 25-34-1
Overall ATS record: 87-83-5
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
All Hail King Henry. The reigning rushing champion rushed for 178 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries against the Colts this past Sunday, and all three of those scores -- along with 140 yards -- came in the first half! Derrick Henry just gets better as the season goes on, and there are stats to prove it.
In December and January since 2018 (including the playoffs), Henry leads all players in rushes per game (23.1), rushing yards per game (135.0) and rushing touchdowns (16). That's a 16-game pace of 2,160 yards if you were curious, and the NFL record for rushing yards in a season is 2,105, which was set by Eric Dickerson in 1980. Henry kicked off his "second half of the season" in a big way this past Sunday, and we could see something similar this Sunday against the defense that gave up 128 rushing yards to James Robinson last week. The Browns were able to escape with a 27-25 win over the Jaguars in Week 12, but this was a matchup in which the Browns should have dominated. While Nick Chubb and Jarvis Landry were fantastic, Mayfield was once again inconsistent and Cleveland's defense made Mike Glennon -- who hadn't started a game since 2017 -- look pretty good. The Brownies are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games, and have a -21 point differential. That makes them just the second 8-3 team (or better) to be outscored through 11 games in the Super Bowl era. I do look forward to watching Henry and Chubb battle it out, but the Titans reclaimed first place in the AFC South last week and they aren't looking back.
Projected score: Titans 31-24
The pick: Titans -6
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Not much went right for the Colts during their 45-26 beatdown this past Sunday. As we previously mentioned, the Colts defense struggled to contain Henry, the secondary gave up a few big plays to A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, star left tackle Anthony Castonzo was injured which hurt the line as a whole and Philip Rivers was inaccurate. Every quarterback has misfires over the course of a game, but some of Rivers' throws legitimately rattled me.
Rivers did not practice on Wednesday due to a toe injury, and Castonzo missed practice with his knee injury. I'm sure Rivers will suit up on Sunday, but this Colts team is banged up and they don't have much going for them right now.
As for the Texans, they are coming off of a 41-25 blowout of the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. Deshaun Watson registered one of his best games of the season, as he completed 17 of 25 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns. He was unstoppable throwing the ball downfield, and ultimately got Lions head coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn fired -- for which Lions fans were very thankful. It sure seemed like the Texans were on the upswing, but then star wide receiver Will Fuller and cornerback Bradley Roby were suspended for the rest of the season due to PED violations. These are big hits suffered on both sides of the ball, but the Texans are on a long week and riding a two-game win streak. Recent history indicates that the Colts should register a rebound win and cover the spread, but when has anything followed the course of logic this season? I'm going to take the Texans to upset the Colts.
Projected score: Texans 23-21
The pick: Texans +3.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
We don't have to talk much about the Saints beating a Denver Broncos team that didn't have a quarterback, but wow, how about those Falcons? A 43-6 win over the Las Vegas Raiders is certainly noteworthy, but they were aided by the five turnovers Jon Gruden's team had. Has this Falcons team found its rhythm, or will we look back on Atlanta's Week 12 win as an outlier? Just two weeks ago, the Saints blew out the Falcons by a score of 24-9 despite Taysom Hill making his first NFL start at quarterback. He threw for 233 yards, but really hurt the Falcons with his feet, as he rushed 10 times for 51 yards and two touchdowns. The Saints are on an eight-game win streak and quickly becoming one of the favorites to win the NFC -- even with their backup quarterback calling the shots. I expect this second meeting to be closer, but I really like the 2.5-point line.
Projected score: Saints 27-23
The pick: Saints -2.5
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Normally I would stay away from this NFC West grudge match, but I'm worried about Kyler Murray's shoulder. It was clear he was struggling with it towards the end of Arizona's loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and then he threw for just 170 yards and an interception during the Cardinals' loss to the Patriots on Sunday. Murray also hasn't looked like the same dual-threat weapon, as he has rushed just five times in each of the last two games after recording at least 10 rushes in each of the previous four matchups. Under Sean McVay, the Rams are 6-0 against the spread vs. the Cardinals and are covering by an average of 15.2 points per game. That's outstanding. They did slip up against the San Francisco 49ers last week, but should rebound if Murray is not 100 percent healthy. He again was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday.
Projected score: Rams 31-26
The pick: Rams -3.5
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Bills are off to San Francisco ... scratch that. They are off to Arizona after Santa Clara County implemented new restrictions. Remember what happened when Buffalo played in this building last month?
Who knows if they will be motivated to avenge that tough loss at State Farm Stadium, but the Bills do have some things going for them. They rebounded from the Week 10 loss by defeating the Los Angeles Chargers, 27-17. Buffalo has scored at least 27 points in its last three games, while the 49ers have only scored over 20 points once with Nick Mullens under center over the last three weeks. It was enough to defeat the Rams this past week, but I don't think the 49ers can keep up with the Bills on the scoreboard. Buffalo has covered in each of its last three games, and I think they make it four straight on Monday night.
Projected score: Bills 27-23
The pick: Bills -1
Other Week 13 picks
Raiders (-8) 28-17 over Jets
Dolphins (-11.5) 30-10 over Bengals
Lions (+3) 23-21 over Bears
Vikings 27-24 over Jaguars (+10.5)
Seahawks (-10) 31-20 over Giants
Chargers (PICK) 26-24 over Patriots
Packers (-8.5) 30-21 over Eagles
Chiefs 34-24 over Broncos (+14)
To be updated:
Washington at Steelers (OFF)
Cowboys at Ravens (OFF)