For some reason I just can't string together a big week against the spread; 3-2 or 2-3 is the norm for these best bets, with one game flipping late and costing me a shot at 4-1 or 5-0 (COUGH REDSKINS, COUGH). Fortunately there are five more weeks to do that and make you guys some cash.
This week we've got a couple huge favorites, which goes against my strategy for stretches of this season, but that's fine. I think we have some real separation between teams and I believe you need to back good teams who are capable of putting up big digits even when the spread is enormous.
I'm a little wary of home dogs this week after seeing the Cowboys take care of business against the Saints; it's a reminder not to just assume blindly that a "better" team is going to head out on the road and cruise to a victory. Doesn't always work that way in the NFL, although head space certainly matters in the final five weeks of the season. Just because these guys are professionals doesn't mean they're not susceptible to human emotions.
If you want to hear picks for every game against the spread, go ahead and subscribe to the Pick Six Podcast -- our daily NFL pod -- with tons of nuggets from every single game (you can also listen to me, Pete Prisco and R.J. White break down the games in the player below). Hit me with your best picks on Twitter @WillBrinson and let's get hot.
Seahawks (-9.5) vs. 49ers
This is a "smell blood" game for the Seahawks, who are returning home for a stretch of games at CenturyLink Field over their final five contests, knowing they just beat the Panthers on the road to secure a head-to-head tiebreaker with their biggest wild-card competition and eyeing three games against division foes (home against SF, road against SF, home against ARZ) where they can really make some hay. It starts in this game, which has a "Russell Wilson goes bananas" feel to it. The Seahawks are huge favorites, but it's not a spot they haven't covered before: Seattle is 10-6 in December home games against the spread since Wilson arrived. Three of those games where they failed to cover were against Bruce Arians' Cardinals team; Arians legit owned the Seahawks during his tenure there. The Seahawks are 7-2 against the spread as touchdown or more favorites at home in December when you take the Arians games out. They're 7-4 if you leave them in -- and they lost to Arians straight up the last two years. This is Nick Mullens' second career road start and this is a MUCH less friendly spot than Tampa Bay. I think Seattle will want to send a statement a la 2012 against SF.
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Chiefs (-14.5) at Raiders
This is a preposterous line and I don't care. Andy Reid is now 16-3 against the spread off the bye in his career as a head coach and the Chiefs are not exactly comfortable in terms of the No. 1 overall seed. The Patriots, Texans, Steelers and Chargers are all nipping at their heels, with Los Angeles playing on Sunday night in Pittsburgh. Also, don't sleep on Drew Brees and the Saints losing Thursday as a motivating factor to get Patrick Mahomes a few extra deep throws and give him a chance at regaining the lead int he MVP race. Reid isn't a "run up the score" type of coach, but he's not afraid to keep scoring because he knows his defense isn't really capable of stopping anyone, even the Raiders. We've seen Oakland pack it up/pack it in (let me begin, etc) when things go south and if the Chiefs are up 35-0 at half, I'll feel reasonably comfortable about covering this spread.
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Browns (+5.5) at Texans
This is the first big test for Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb and the crew of Browns players who are leading the youth movement in Cleveland during this glorious post-Hue Jackson revolution. Defensively they haven't had to play anyone quite like the Texans: the Chiefs, Falcons and Bengals were Cleveland's last three matchups. Not exactly stout defenses. But Baker's been a pain in the rear as a road dog this year, with the Browns coming close to upsetting the Saints, Ravens and Buccaneers while beating Oakland and Cincinnati. Houston's on a short week, will be coming off the emotion of a divisional matchup against the Titans in a game where they were honoring their late owner and I think Mayfield will get up for a game against Deshaun Watson, who is often tied to the Browns because Cleveland passed on him twice in the 2017 NFL Draft. Cleveland's pass rush is a bad matchup for the Texans offensive line. Bottom line is I just think the Browns are a good team that will make a run at the playoffs, even if it's a long shot. And it starts this week.
Steelers (-3.5) vs. Chargers
This line is begging people to take the Chargers, and I wouldn't blame anyone who wanted to back Philip Rivers in this spot. He's coming off one of the best games of his CAREER, Los Angeles is rolling at 8-3 and all but secured a wild card spot. They have a greater than 90 percent chance of making the postseason as it stands right now. But this game reeks like the Steelers matchup against the Panthers earlier this year: dangerous, trendy team coming to town in prime time after the Steelers had lost, catching too many points and people starting to question Ben Roethlisberger a bit. I was huge on the Steelers then and I'm huge on the Steelers now. Big Ben has massive home/road splits that favor his performance at Heinz Field, the Steelers know what this game means for seeding in the AFC and as a short-ish home favorite in prime time under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have been great about covering when the other team isn't Baltimore (5-0 since 2012, 0-2 against the spread versus the Ravens in those spots).
Ravens (+1) at Falcons
With the Falcons unable to slow down pass-catching running backs, we will look back on this and say THIS WAS THE TY MONTGOMERY GAME. (Seriously though don't be afraid to trot him out in DFS.) I think we could actually look back at this and see some real similarities with Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick; they're obviously comparable players and Vick dominated in Atlanta -- albeit in a different stadium -- for years before he had to head behind bars for a little while. Jackson and Gus Edwards and Montgomery will make life difficult for a depleted Falcons defense that doesn't have the bodies or the discipline to slow down the Ravens attack when they unleash some read option stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta is able to move the ball here -- the over/under is fairly high at 48 -- but I would be surprised if they can score at will against Baltimore. Bottle up the Falcons a few times in the red zone (a la the Saints last week), unleash Jackson and the Ravens can come away from this game 7-5 and in control of their wild card destiny.
