Our Teaser of the Week stayed in the win column with the Giants pulling out the outright win despite not covering the closing line and the Packers taking care of business, and the cash moves us to 7-4-1 on the year with our top two teaser options each week. And it's a good thing we have a nice cushion heading into Week 13, because the options aren't great.
Only two teams offer classic advantage teaser options this week, but I'm hesitant to tease the Raiders down under -3 on a road trip out east for a second straight week, even going against the putrid Jets. We dodged a bullet teasing the road Giants last week, and I'm in no hurry to try it again so soon.
I've done the legwork of going through all the lines as of Tuesday night and identifying the best teasing opportunities. Below, I've ranked all the sides I think are in play for teasers this week, considering only the standard six-point teasers. You can take the top two options and put them together for my Teaser of the Week, or you can be bold and try and hit a bigger payout.
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Ranking teaser options
Both these teams impressed last week, with the Bills defense finally finding some success against the Chargers and the 49ers pulling off an upset win against the division rival Rams. Both teams benefitted from defenses that have gotten healthy after dealing with absences early in the year, and I think this game could be a little lower-scoring than we think as a result. That should make it easier for the 49ers to keep it within one score the entire game, even on a neutral field.
With our hesitance regarding the Raiders, we're left choosing from a few field goal underdogs. I expect the Lions to play with a renewed energy now that Matt Patricia has been shown the door, and it certainly helps that we can catch more than one score against a Bears offense that has been terrible for much of the season.
3. Cardinals +9 vs. Rams
The Cardinals are certainly the best team out of our three +9 options, and they're not facing the toughest opponent of our three choices, so maybe they should leapfrog the Lions. Both the Cardinals and Rams lost as favorites last week and are looking to bounce back, and we should expect a close matchup that I think the Cardinals can win outright.
The Falcons couldn't cover our teaser two weeks ago when they played the Saints, so while Taysom Hill still hasn't looked great despite leading his team to a pair of easy wins, I'm using a little bit of caution here. Atlanta followed up that 24-9 loss with a 43-6 win over a Las Vegas team that still owns a winning record, so who knows what's going on with the Falcons.
If you can get the Vikings under a field goal, they shoot up to the top of our rankings, but I don't see why the spread would get under -9. The Jaguars played a competitive game against a Browns defense that was missing a few key pieces but they still aren't very good. The Vikings looked a bit shaky last week despite their win, but it's hard to see Jacksonville getting many stops in this matchup.
6. Raiders -1.5 at Jets
This is overly cautious, right? The Raiders are going to bounce back with a strong performance against a team that has a solid run defense, and the Jets look like they're committed to going 0-16 despite Adam Gase keeping who's calling plays a secret. But the Raiders just got their clocks cleaned in Atlanta and now have to turn around and fly to New Jersey for this one. I don't love the spot, so they're low on the list this week.
7. Packers -3.5 vs. Eagles
The Eagles just can't be as bad as they've looked week in and week out, and one of these times things are going to click. Their defense had another good game against the Seahawks, giving up just 301 yards of offense and holding Seattle to 23 points while scoring 17 for a third straight week. Again, this is probably too cautious in this matchup, but I think we want to get this one under -3 to be safe.
Lines to avoid teasing
Washington at Steelers (-9.5)
A 49ers-Steelers teaser on Monday sure seems tempting, but the Steelers' schedule has been upended due to the Ravens' COVID-19 outbreak, and even in the best of times they're always willing to sleepwalk as big favorites in these types of games. Washington might actually be a sneaky good teaser option here, as the Football Team hasn't lost by more than three points since Week 5.
Browns at Titans (-5.5)
The Titans looked as good as they have all season while winning a huge divisional matchup against the Colts, while the Browns barely held off a feisty Jaguars team. Feels like it's not a great time to back the Titans as a result since the line is likely a little inflated, but I don't see a ton of value in teasing the Browns up either just in case they fall behind early and the passing game lets them down.
Giants at Seahawks (-10)
The Seahawks defense appears to be rounding into form and should get to square off with Colt McCoy, so they seems like a nice play here. But their offense has also seemed a bit stuck in the mud in recent weeks too, so this game has the potential to turn into another low-scoring slugfest where they escape with a three-point win.
No way you can take the Bengals with Brandon Allen at quarterback, but I don't know if I trust the Dolphins offense to win by six points in any matchup. So let's stay away from this game.
Colts (-3) at Texans
The Colts should bounce back in this one provided they don't lose more key players to the COVID-19 list, but you're not teasing through zero. And the Texans just lost a pair of players to PED suspensions, including their best receiver in Will Fuller. Keep this one off your teaser card.
Patriots at Chargers (PK)
If one of these teams gets to +1.5, it'll certainly be tempting to tease them through +7. I'm not even sure which one I'd prefer to have in that situation, so that tells me we should stay away.
Chiefs (-3.5) at Buccaneers
The value here is on the 'dog, but it's not hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes carving up a Buccaneers defense that couldn't stop Jared Goff. If that happens, it's on Tom Brady to keep up, and the Tom Brady we saw Monday wouldn't have a chance. Not ruling out the Bucs from competing in and even winning this game, but I don't feel comfortable teasing them either.
Broncos at Chiefs (-14)
You're almost always safe teasing the Chiefs down, there just isn't enough value doing it here. Look for a better option.
Ravens at Cowboys (OFF)
No line for this game at this point, and it'll certainly depend on who the Ravens have at quarterback when this game kicks off.