NFL Week 14 odds, picks: 49ers rebound against Saints, Patrick Mahomes slays Pats in Foxborough

We have just a month left in the regular season and things are starting to shake up at the top of both conferences. The 49ers fell to the fifth seed in the NFC after losing to the Ravens and Baltimore leaped past the Patriots for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Elsewhere we have the Saints already stamping their ticket to the postseason and now are looking to solidify a bye. 

As we turn the page to the Week 14 slate, there's still plenty of playoff maneuvering that can occur and money to be made in the process. As for some upsets, we're looking at the Chiefs, Bengals and 49ers to come out on top. I also notice a couple of scenarios where home dogs looks pretty favorable in their matchups.  

Before we get to the picks, let's take a look at where we stand heading into Week 14. 

Picks record

Straight up: 119-72-1
Against the spread: 89-101-2

We had a solid Thanksgiving slate as we had the Bills taking down the Cowboys in Dallas along with the Saints handling the Falcons on the road. We nearly had a sweep of the three-game slate, but Chicago covered by a single point. On the Sunday main slate of games, the Steelers win over Cleveland was easy money as was Kansas City over Oakland and Seattle over the Vikings. We were stung by Cincinnati getting their first win of the season and missed on the Cardinals upsetting the Rams at home. 

Alright, let's get to the picks. 

Chiefs at Patriots 

Point spread: Patriots -3 

A rematch of last year's AFC Championship is set to go down in Foxborough this weekend. This time around, it feels like the Chiefs are starting to peak at the right time, while New England is on a downward spiral. Deshaun Watson was able to have his way with the typically stout Patriots defense and Patrick Mahomes can do a lot of the same things that he brings to the table. As for the New England offense, it doesn't appear like Tom Brady and his weapons will be able to keep up. Utilizing Sony Michel in the running game would certainly be an interesting strategy to attack the questionable run defense of the Chiefs, but the Patriots haven't really committed to him throughout a full game. 

The pick: Chiefs 23-17 over Patriots

49ers at Saints 

Point spread: Saints -2.5

Even though they fell to the fifth seed in the NFC, the Niners are still a force to be reckoned with and are arguably still the best team in the conference. While the Saints certainly have rebounded nicely following their Week 10 loss to the Falcons and are on a three-game winning streak, the San Francisco defense seems more than capable of limiting Drew Brees and the passing game as they rank second in the league in DVOA. Anytime I can get points by taking the 49ers this year, it'll be really hard to turn down. 

The pick: 49ers 27-20 over Saints

Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in every Week 14 NFL game? And which Super Bowl contender gets stunned? Visit SportsLine to see their Week 14 NFL cheat sheet, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.

Ravens at Bills 

Point spread: Bills +5.5

The Bills are home dogs in Week 14 and it's hard to blame the oddsmakers here with the Baltimore Ravens coming to town. They're fresh off a Week 13 win against the 49ers and just claimed the No. 1 seed in the AFC from the Patriots. Needless to say they're coming in oozing with confidence. They do have a tough matchup against a Bills defense that has been pretty stout over the course of the year. While they rank in the top 3 in fewest total yards allowed, fewest passing yards and points per game, one area where they are mediocre is against the run where they rank outside the top 10. The ground game is where Baltimore's offense earns its bread and butter, so this will clearly be an area they'll try to exploit. 

The pick: Ravens 26-17 over Bills

Bengals at Browns 

Point spread: Browns -8.5

Am I crazy for thinking the Bengals can go on a two-game winning streak? With Andy Dalton back under center, the Cincinnati offense was able to put up 22 points against the Jets and now face a Browns defense that just allowed a third stringer to beat them last week. As long as Dalton and the Bengals offense can hang onto the ball, I think they'll be able to put up points against the Browns defense. Offensively, Cleveland has been better as of late, but there's a gut feeling that a dud performance and questionable play-calling by head coach Freddie Kitchens is on the horizon. I'm absolutely taking the points in this matchup. 

The pick: Bengals 23-20 over Browns

Chargers at Jaguars 

Point spread: Chargers -3

Minshew Mania is back like it never left. After Nick Foles stumbled as the starter in Jacksonville following his return from injury, Minshew took the reins in Week 13 and for a moment made things pretty interesting in a potential comeback. He's since been named the starter for Week 14 and now faces a Murphy's Law-like Chargers team that finds the most fantastical ways to lose imaginable. Philip Rivers simply hasn't looked like himself and I don't expect that to change in Jacksonville, which is why I'm a bit perplexed that the Jags are home dogs. 

The pick: Jaguars 24-13 over Chargers

Rest of the bunch

Bears 24-20 over Cowboys 

Packers 33-10 over Redskins

Texans 27-13 over Broncos

Falcons 28-14 over Panthers

Vikings 23-9 over Lions

Dolphins 26-24 over Jets 

Buccaneers 20-14 over Colts

Cardinals 24-17 over Steelers

Titans 23-21 over Raiders

Seahawks 28-17 over Rams 

Eagles 33-24 over Giants

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