NFL Week 14 odds, picks: Don't trust Broncos as a road favorite, Vikings cover in Seattle, plus more best bets

Well, it would figure that the week after I swore off betting against the New Orleans Saints that they'd go out and get spanked by the Cowboys, but it's just been that kind of season for me here. I went 1-2 last week for the second week in a row, though I do appreciate Todd Gurley's strange attempt to not score a touchdown with more than two minutes left in the game. I know he thought he was helping his team try to run out the clock, but a part of me likes to think Todd was looking out for my Lions +10 play.

Hopefully, I won't need Gurley or anybody else making strange decisions to help me put together a profitable week in Week 14.

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49ers (+4.5) vs. Broncos

The 49ers went to Seattle last Sunday and got their butts kicked, losing 43-16. They've now lost three straight and nine of their previous 10. So, you know, things are going great in San Francisco. Seriously, though, it's times like these I like to buy low on teams. With the blowout loss last week combined with the 2-10 record on the season, there's value to be found here as teams like this are often written off by the public.

And let them write the Niners off. If that means the public wants to put its money behind Case Keenum as a road favorite, well, I'll let them do that. I'm going to take the Niners and the points. Broncos 24, 49ers 20

Colts at Texans (Under 49.5)

I've always been a fan of the under in divisional matchups like this, particularly later in the season when the teams already met earlier in the season. The fact the first meeting between these two resulted in a 37-34 score makes me more confident for some strange reason. The thought process is that the teams are already familiar with one another, and have played, there's plenty of tape to study, and the defenses are better prepared for what they'll see.

Plus, the Texans defense has been playing a lot better in recent weeks than it had been at the time of the first meeting. Furthermore, the under has gone 11-4 in Houston's last 15 conference games, 14-6 in the Colts' last 20 games, and it's 11-5 in the last 16 games between these two. Follow the trends. Texans 27, Colts 21

Vikings (+3.5) at Seahawks

Earlier I mentioned how I like taking teams like the 49ers who are running bad and coming off a blowout loss. Well, there's another side to that coin. I also love fading teams coming off a blowout win the week before because we tend to see the public overvalue them. Combine that with Minnesota losing to the Patriots 24-10 last week, and we have a line that's just a little larger than it probably should be.

Seattle's won three in a row, but look closer. It beat a Packers team that's been lost all season, a Panthers team currently in a freefall, and the 49ers. Minnesota has a dynamic offense and a strong defense. It's the biggest challenge Seattle's faced since losing to the Rams a month ago. The Vikings can win this game, but we'll be satisfied with them covering the spread. Seahawks 27, Vikings 24

SportsLine Bonus Pick

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: The Packers host the Falcons, and they're favored by 5.5 points with the total set at 49.5 points. I have a strong pick available for his game, but you'll have to head to my SportsLine page to find out what it is.

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CBS Sports Writer

Tom Fornelli has been a college football writer at CBS Sports since 2010. During his time at CBS, Tom has proven time and again that he hates your favorite team and thinks your rival is a paragon of football... Full Bio

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