Woof. The Week 14 slate wasn't kind to us over here as I went a measly 4-10-1 ATS for the weekend that featured some flat-out misses. I was on the wrong side of the Monday doubleheader by backing the Packers and Dolphins and had too much faith in the Texans as a road favorite against the Jets. It was a bad week, but bad weeks happen. If they didn't, I'd be on an island somewhere, drinking a frothy alcoholic beverage and watching the waves crash to shore. Alas, I'm in the cold Northeast looking to rebound in Week 15, which I intend to do.
This week, I'm putting one game from Saturday's upcoming tripleheader, and a pivotal matchup between the Cowboys and Bills inside my five locks of the week. Let's get to it!
2023 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 34-36-1
ATS: 107-92-9
ML: 130-78
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Vikings at Bengals
Minnesota has made the change to Nick Mullens at quarterback and the veteran will get the start on Saturday. I think this will give a much-needed boost to this Vikings offense as Mullens was a noticeable spark when he came in for Joshua Dobbs last week, completing 9 of 13 for 83 yards. He'll also be facing a Bengals pass defense that is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt this season, which is the second-worst in the league. Of course, getting a healthy Justin Jefferson back will be nice, and the star receiver said Wednesday he will play after leaving last week with a chest injury. Kevin O'Connell has been able to get his team up for games on the road, going 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games away from Minnesota. I think Cincinnati ultimately pulls this game out, but the Vikings keep it close enough to lock in the field goal and the hook.
Projected score: Bengals 24, Vikings 21
The pick: Vikings +3.5
Chiefs at Patriots
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Yes, the Patriots were able to gut out a solid win in Pittsburgh last week and do have a rest advantage this week, but let's not mistake that win as some sort of corner being turned in Foxborough. New England is still a bad football team and the offense still has plenty of warts (Patriots were sneakily shut out in the second half last week). Meanwhile, the Chiefs are at a crossroads after dropping two straight and have lost a grip on the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They'll be heading up to Foxborough with plenty of motivation to get back on track (and possibly let out a little frustration). While New England's defense has been a bright spot this season, it can be thrown on. The Patriots are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Patriots 17
The pick: Chiefs -9.5
Ravens at Jaguars
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
I have plenty of stock in the Ravens (my preseason pick to win the AFC) and I'm not shying away here on prime time. They can continue to hold a grasp on the No. 1 seed in the conference with a win in Jacksonville and have been firing on all cylinders as of late. They've won six of their last seven games and are averaging 32.6 points per game over that stretch. They'll now put that against a Jaguars defense that ranks 20th in scoring this season and has allowed 26.8 points per game since the bye. They are also allowing a league-worst 72% completion percentage and 11 passing touchdowns since Week 10. Lamar Jackson should have a field day and continue to make a push for MVP on a national stage.
Projected score: Ravens 28, Jaguars 20
The pick: Ravens -3.5
Cowboys at Bills
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
If the 49ers are the best team in the league, then the Cowboys are right on their tail at No. 2. Dallas instilled a ton of faith in bettors this season, particularly on this five-game winning streak that has them now atop the NFC East and the No. 2 seed in the conference. This game will be a key barometer, however, as they'll be on the road taking on a Bills team that is also coming off a key win in Week 14. Dak Prescott is a much different quarterback on the road than he is at AT&T Stadium this year, but I'm still backing the Cowboys in this spot to pull off the upset. Why? Because I think Josh Allen is going to continue to turn the ball over as he's done in his past nine games coming into Sunday. Dallas is one of the most opportunistic teams in the league and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Cowboys defense create multiple turnovers and give the offense short fields to work with.
Projected score: Cowboys 27, Bills 23
The pick: Cowboys +2.5
Buccaneers at Packers
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Green Bay had its three-game winning streak snapped by Tommy DeVito and the Giants on Monday, but they are set up to bounce back this week at home against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's secondary is giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season, which is tied for the third-most in the league. They've also struggled to get off the field, ranking in the bottom third of the league on third down. At Lambeau Field, Jordan Love has a high completion percentage, passer rating, and averages roughly 40 more passing yards per game this season than he does on the road. Green Bay is also 25-14 ATS at home under Matt LeFleur, which is the best mark in the NFL over that stretch. The Packers bounce back with a win at home to remain inside the playoff picture.
Projected score: Packers 24, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Packers -3.5
Rest of the bunch
Chargers at Raiders
Projected score: Chargers 20, Raiders 17
The pick: Chargers +3
Steelers at Colts
Projected score: Colts 24, Steelers 21
The pick: Colts -2.5
Broncos at Lions
Projected score: Lions 27, Broncos 20
The pick: Lions -5
Falcons at Panthers
Projected score: Falcons 23, Panthers 17
The pick: Falcons -3
Bears at Browns
Projected score: Bears 24, Browns 21
The pick: Bears +3
Texans at Titans
Projected score: Titans 20, Texans 17
The pick: Titans -2.5
Giants at Saints
Projected score: Saints 23, Giants 20
The pick: Giants +4.5
Jets at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 27, Jets 17
The pick: Dolphins -9
49ers at Cardinals
Projected score: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17
The pick: Cardinals +13.5
Commanders at Rams
Projected score: Rams 30, Commanders 23
The pick: Rams -6.5
Eagles at Seahawks (Monday)
Projected score: Eagles 27, Seahawks 23
The pick: Eagles -3.5
