We struggled a bit last week, but I can boast about some of my predictions. I knew the Washington Football Team could upset the San Francisco 49ers and that the Baltimore Ravens would sweep the red-hot Cleveland Browns. Unfortunately, I decided to not buy into the Buffalo Bills hype, and picked the Pittsburgh Steelers to rebound from their first loss and cover. I now, like seemingly the rest of the country, have some major concerns about this Steelers team. I am excited for Week 15 because I think there are a couple of obvious favorites that don't have large spreads to cover.
Below I will give you my top five picks of Week 15, followed by the rest of the bunch. Let's jump in.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 30-39-1
Overall ATS record: 103-98-5
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Here's an astounding stat: New England has been favored against Miami in 32 out of the last 34 meetings in the series, including 13 straight. The last time Miami was favored was back in Week 15 of 2013! The Dolphins are now the best team in the NFL against the spread with a 10-3 record. Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 5-1 against the spread since taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Last week, they covered against the Kansas City Chiefs, and forced Patrick Mahomes to throw three interceptions. This defense is no joke, as they rank second in scoring defense (18.2 PPG) and are tied with the Steelers for most takeaways in the NFL (25). Cam Newton and Co. are coming off of an embarrassing 24-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. I'm not expecting the Dolphins to blow the Patriots out by any means, but this MIA -2 line seems too low.
Projected score: Dolphins 24-20
The pick: Dolphins -2
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers got back on track last week, as they defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 26-14. This was something I predicted would happen in my Week 15 lookahead lines column, as I urged you take the Buccaneers at -2.5 in this matchup. If you didn't grab it at Bucs -2.5, no worries, I think I'm still going to take it at Bucs -6. The Falcons did record an incredible 43-6 win over the Las Vegas Raiders a couple of weeks ago, but they have been fading as of late. They scored just 16 points against the New Orleans Saints last Sunday, and then just 17 points against a defense that allows the sixth-most points per game this past Sunday. This will be Brady's first game against the Falcons as a member of the Buccaneers, but I feel like this unit is on the rise.
Projected score: Buccaneers 38-27
The pick: Buccaneers -6
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Colts won in Houston two weeks ago by six points, but it came down to the wire. Unfortunately, Deshaun Watson fumbled in the red zone as the Texans were trying to orchestrate a game-winning drive. He has struggled in his past five meetings against Indy, throwing for five touchdowns and five interceptions along with 15 sacks taken. Speaking of Watson struggling, the Texans' matchup against the Chicago Bears last week was hard to watch. Houston fell 36-7, and the defense allowed Mitchell Trubisky to explode for 267 yards and three touchdowns. Allen Robinson caught nine passes for 123 yards and a touchdown, David Montgomery rushed for 113 yards and a touchdown and the defense forced two fumbles. That Thanksgiving beatdown of the Detroit Lions feels like a long time ago, and this Texans team might be limping towards the finish line.
Projected score: Colts 31-21
The pick: Colts -7
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Saints fell back to earth this past week, as rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles snapped New Orleans' nine-game win streak. As for the Chiefs, they defeated the Dolphins but again failed to cover the spread. The Chiefs have been a nightmare for bettors recently. They are 0-5 against the spread in their past five games, which is the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL. During the streak, they've been favored by 41.5 total points, and have won by 21 total points. You have to imagine that streak will be ending soon.
The Saints have averaged 24.2 points per game with Taysom Hill under center over the last four games, while the Chiefs have averaged 29.2 points over the past four games. This Sunday could be a test for Hill -- to see if he can keep up on the scoreboard with Mahomes. The Chiefs average 31 points per game, which ranks second in the league behind the Green Bay Packers. While the Saints do have one of the best defenses in the league, stopping this loaded Chiefs offense is going to be a tough challenge.
Projected score: Chiefs 28-24
The pick: Chiefs -3
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Apologies to those who had to watch the Giants play the Arizona Cardinals last week. Daniel Jones is still dealing with multiple injuries and the offensive line has been struggling mightily. Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon have to be licking their chops coming into this matchup. While the Browns did suffer a minor setback with the 47-42 loss to the Ravens, this is a team I believe will do everything in their power to rebound. Yes, they were able to compete at a high level against the Ravens, but this team is past moral victories. They are out to prove they are a legitimate contender in the AFC, and they can get back on track by beating down the Giants on Sunday.
Projected score: Browns 28-17
The pick: Browns -5
Other Week 15 picks
Raiders (-3) 30-24 over Chargers
Bills (-6) 28-20 over Broncos
Packers 31-24 over Panthers (+8.5)
Seahawks 27-26 over Washington (+5.5)
Bears (+3) 27-24 over Vikings
Ravens (-13) 35-21 over Jaguars
Cowboys (+3) 21-20 over 49ers
Titans (-11) 30-17 over Lions
Cardinals 27-23 over Eagles (+6)
Rams (-17) 30-10 over Jets
Steelers 27-17 over Bengals (+12.5)