Guys, before we get to the picks this week, I have some good news and some bad news to share with you.
The good news is that I went to the bathroom before I started writing this, so I won't be pulling a Lamar Jackson and dumping out on you halfway through this thing. On the other hand, the bad news is that this week marks the final Thursday night game of the season. Actually, I guess that could also be construed as good news for me because my DVR is about to break. I think my wife told me yesterday that we have 94 Hallmark Christmas movies to catch up on and those definitely aren't going to watch themselves, so I guess seeing Thursday football end is actually a good thing.
Although we're losing Thursday games, we're getting SATURDAY football in return, so it's actually a fair trade. Over the next two weeks, we're going to be getting multiple Saturday games each week with two in Week 15 and three in Week 16. Normally, my favorite thing to do on Saturdays during the NFL season is to buy a bunch of things that I don't actually need from Target. However, I guess I'm going to have to put those plans on the back-burner for the next two weeks. One thing I won't be putting on the back-burner is the Week 15 picks, so let's get to them.
Actually, before we get to the picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. If you like clicking on things then I highly suggest you also click here so you can sign up for CBSSports.com's NFL newsletter, which I pump out four days per week. It's just as much fun as these picks and the best part is that the newsletter gets sent straight to your email inbox. Of course, I don't like to discriminate, so If you don't have an email, I could probably hand write the newsletter and mail it to you each day, but I haven't hand-written anything in so long that I'm not sure I remember how to do it.
While you're thinking about whether you should sign up for the newsletter, you can pass the time by listening to the latest Pick Six podcast, which I recorded on Monday night with my crazy partners Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson along with special guest Josh Edwards. We spent 45 highly entertaining minutes talking about the totally bonkers game between the Ravens and Browns. If you want to listen, and you definitely should, you can do that below.
Alright, let's get to the picks, and remember, if you have to go to the bathroom, now's the time to do it.
NFL Week 15 picks
Pete Prisco, Kenny White and R.J. White join Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down all the games and make best bets. Give it a listen below and be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform:
New England (6-7) at Miami (8-5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
I was going to write just one sentence explaining this pick that simply said, "I'm taking the Dolphins," but then I realized it's not so simple because this game is giving us Bill Belichick against a rookie quarterback. Asking a rookie quarterback to go up against a Belichick defense is like asking me to defuse a small bomb using only a hammer, a shot glass and a small diaper. I mean, everyone knows how that's going to end. I'm not MacGyver.
The last time we saw Belichick coach against a rookie quarterback came back in Week 12 against the Chargers and in case you need a reminder about what happened, the Patriots won 45-0. if you're a rookie quarterback, the last coach you want to be going up against is Belichick, who is 21-6 all time against rookie quarterbacks.
Of course, if there's one quarterback who might be able to beat Belichick, it's Tua Tagovailoa. This is a guy who almost pulled off a comeback from 20 points down against the Chiefs even though he had already lost his star tight end (Mike Gesicki) for the game which left him on the field with two rookie receivers who didn't even play receiver in college because they were both quarterbacks. Apparently, Tua is the MacGyver of quarterbacks, because despite those odds, he still almost pulled off the win.
The biggest advantage for Tua in this game is that he's being coached by a former Patriots assistant in Brian Flores. Flores is going to know exactly what Belichick is going to do. Of course, Belichick is going to know that Flores knows and Flores is going to know that he's going to know that, which basically means this is going to be chess match on par with Beth Harmon going up against Borgov at the end of "Queen's Gambit."
The problem for the Patriots is that if this is a chess match, all their good pieces are gone.
The pick: Dolphins 20-17 over Patriots
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Seattle (9-4) at Washington (6-7)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
If you're a fan of Washington, then you may have noticed that I've done a horrible job of picking your team's games over the past few weeks. Actually, I know you've noticed, because I've gotten multiple tweets about it. Over the past four weeks, I've gone 43-14 with my NFL picks, but 0-4 in games involving Washington. I'm arguably the biggest embarrassment in Washington DC right now. OK, maybe not the biggest, but I'm definitely up there.
Despite the 0-4 record, I would like everyone to know that I regret NONE of the picks. Back in Week 11, I picked the Bengals to beat Washington and the Bengals were actually WINNING the game until Joe Burrow went down with an injury in the third quarter. In Week 12, I picked a 3-7 Cowboys team to beat a 3-7 Washington team. Two NFC East teams with bad records is a coin toss game and anytime there's a coin toss game involving Andy Dalton, you have to take Dalton, and now that I just said that out loud, I'm thinking I should probably re-evaluate that rule.
In Week 13, I picked the 11-0 Steelers to beat Washington because EVERYONE did. Well, everyone except for Will Brinson, who did actually call the upset. In Week 14, I picked the 49ers to beat Washington, because by that point, I think my brain was just automatically programmed to pick against Washington.
I've picked against Washington for four straight weeks, so I guess it only makes sense to keep the streak going. I mean, at this point, I think it's best for all involved if I continue to pick against them. The one thing I will say here is that although Washington has one of the best defensive lines in football, they've struggled against extremely mobile quarterbacks. In losses to Arizona and Baltimore, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray combined to average eight yards per run while scoring a total of three rushing touchdowns. In both instances, Washington lost by at least 14 points (31-17 to Baltimore, 30-15 to Arizona). I think Russell Wilson is going to put up even better numbers, but Washington has clearly gotten much better since those two games, so I won't be predicting a blowout here.
The pick: Seahawks 33-27 over Washington
Chicago (6-7) at Minnesota (6-7)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
This isn't a playoff game, but it's going to kind of feel like a playoff game and that's because the loser basically has no hope of making the postseason. Of course, it's probably for the best that this isn't an actual playoff game since neither of these teams has played very well in the playoffs over the past few years, which means I'd have to pick them both to lose, which would be confusing.
These two teams met back in Week 10 when Nick Foles was still the starter for the Bears and during that game, Chicago somehow almost managed to win despite the fact that Foles gave one of the 10 worst performances I've seen from any quarterback this season. Foles completed just 15 of 26 passes for 106 yards and as bad as he was, the Bears actually held the lead with two minutes left to play in the third quarter.
After that game, I remember thinking to myself, "Man, if the Bears had a competent quarterback, they could definitely beat the Vikings." Now, we can debate about whether or not Mitchell Trubisky qualifies as competent, but he definitely looked competent in Week 14 and he's definitely an upgrade over the Week 10 version of Foles and I think that upgrade is going to be enough for the Bears to pull off the upset here.
Also, I think Mike Zimmer is going to end up psyching himself out the first time the Vikings face anything longer than a fourth-and-2 in Chicago territory. Vikings kicker Dan Bailey has missed FIVE field goals over the past two weeks and Zimmer has clearly lost all faith in him, which is definitely going to lead to some awkward fourth down calls for Minnesota that will likely benefit the Bears.
The pick: Bears 23-20 over Vikings
Kansas City (12-1) at New Orleans (10-3)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
I have no idea who the Saints quarterback is going to be on Sunday, but I'm starting to think it's not going to matter. The Saints basically have three options at quarterback: Option 1 is Taysom Hill, who struggled against the Eagles on Sunday. Option 2 is Drew Brees, who's coming off 11 broken ribs. ELEVEN. I mean, I don't even think I knew humans had 11 ribs until I read about Brees' injuries. Option 3 is the completely nuclear option where Sean Payton just says "we have nothing to lose" and goes with Jameis Winston.
Am I secretly rooting for option 3? Yes.
Do I think it's going to happen? No.
I also doubt that we'll see Brees. Now, I'm not a doctor, but I do have Google and Google tells me it takes at least a month to heal from a broken rib. The last thing the Saints are going to want to do is let Brees return early, only to see him get injured again, which would then potentially keep him out of the playoffs. Basically, this means we're almost certainly going to be getting Taysom Hill against Patrick Mahomes, which is about as fair as me going up against Taylor Swift in a karaoke contest where we only sing all the songs off her new album. I haven't even listened to the album yet. I'd get destroyed.
The only way the Saints are going to be able to keep things close is if their defense can shut down Mahomes and as we've seen for nearly three years now, no one can shut down Mahomes. However, I do think they'll play well enough to keep this game close.
Also, there's only one team in the NFL that's still undefeated on the road this season and it's the Chiefs. I'm not sure if it's because they've mastered the art of traveling during a pandemic or because they love being away from their families, but the Chiefs are 7-0 on the road this year and this game is on the road for them, so obviously I have to pick the Chiefs.
The pick: Chiefs 30-20 over Saints
Lock of the Week that's not actually a lock
Steelers (11-2) at Bengals (2-10-1)
Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
After watching the Bengals play for the past three weeks, I've noticed a few troubling things about them: They can't score on anyone, they have questionable coaching, they have a below average quarterback and everyone on the team fumbles. When you're trying to win football games, none of those things are ideal.
That being said, the Steelers are also having their own issues: Their receivers drop every other pass thrown their way and their quarterback looks like his feet are cemented to the ground every time he drops back to pass. If the Steelers are going to fix these problems against anyone, it's definitely going to be the Bengals. As for the Bengals problems, they won't be fixed until Joe Burrow returns, which means next September at the earliest.
The Bengals and Steelers actually played each other while Burrow was healthy and Pittsburgh won that game 36-10. In the three games the Bengals have played since Burrow was injured, their offense has averaged eight points per game. They can't move the ball on anyone, and now, they have to go up against one of the best defenses in football. The Steelers might rack up 12 sacks on Monday night. If this was a boxing match, they would stop the fight before it even started.
The only reason the Steelers should be concerned at all about this game is because I'm picking them. As you may or may not know, the "Lock of the Week" has become the one pick every week where you're definitely better off taking the opposite team than who I'm picking. Over the past eight weeks, it's 6-2 straight-up, but 0-8 AGAINST THE SPREAD. In Week 14, the "Lock" was covering until the Dolphins decided to kick a field goal with 16 seconds left. In Week 12, the Lock didn't cover because of a garbage time touchdown.
Judging by the past eight weeks, there's a 100% chance that the Bengals are going to score a touchdown in the final two minutes that will allow them to cover the spread and then my family's not going to get any Christmas presents this year and I'm going to have to explain to them that it's because I lost all my Christmas money betting against the Bengals, which will be an awkward conversation to have since pretty much my entire family lives in Cincinnati. That being said, awkward conversations are a true staple of the holidays, so it probably won't end up feeling awkward at all.
The pick: Steelers 31-13 over Bengals
Lock of the week record: 13-3 straight up, 6-10 against the spread
NFL Week 15 picks: All the rest
Raiders 31-24 over Chargers
Bills 27-24 over Broncos
Packers 31-23 over Panthers
Buccaneers 23-16 over Falcons
Colts 24-20 over Texans
Titans 38-17 over Lions
Ravens 34-20 over Jaguars
Rams 31-10 over Jets
Cardinals 26-23 over Eagles
49ers 24-17 over Cowboys
Browns 19-16 over Giants
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Chargers would beat the Falcons in a game that would have a pretty bonkers ending and guess what happened? The Chargers beat the Falcons in a game that had a pretty bonkers ending. Now, did I know that Matt Ryan was going to throw three interceptions in the second half, including two over the final four minutes of the game? Of course I did. The Falcons somehow invent a new way to lose every week and 90% of the time, they involve Ryan throwing an inexplicable interception although I don't think they qualify as inexplicable anymore, because he now seems to do it all the time.
I mean, just look at this: The Falcons were already in range to kick a potential go-ahead field goal, they have the kicker with the BEST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE in the NFL this year, so all Ryan had to do was not throw an interception, and he did the opposite of that.
HITMANNNNN ‼️
— Los Angeles Chargers (@Chargers) December 13, 2020
📺: FOX | #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/gtZhQmwb5b
The worst part is that he did the same thing again three minutes later. The Falcons out Charger'd the Chargers by showing them that no one knows how to Falc up a game more than the Falcons. Also, I'll be honest, I can't wait until these teams meet again in 2024. I've already got it marked on my calendar.
Worst pick: I've made some bad predictions in my life. As a matter fact, in no particular order, here are the worst predictions I've ever made:
The cell phone will be a passing fad (That didn't happen).
Blake Bortles will win three MVP awards (That could still happen, but I'm going to go ahead and chalk that one up as a loss).
The Giants will beat the Cardinals in Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season. That definitely didn't happen.
The Giants haven't beaten a non-divisional team at home all season and I picked them to beat one even though they had a quarterback who was basically playing on one leg. Let me just tell you right now that picking a one-legged quarterback to win in the NFL is always the wrong pick and I learned that important lesson last week.
The Giants gave QB Daniel Jones’ hamstring a final check today. It went well and he is expected to start tomorrow’s game against the Cardinals, per source.
— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) December 12, 2020
Whoever handled that final check on Jones' hamstring should be re-assigned to another job that doesn't involve them doing final checks.
Finally, if you're still reading, you might be wondering which teams I've done well picking this year and here's the answer:
Teams I'm 12-1 picking this year (Straight up): Chiefs, Jets
Teams I'm 11-2 picking this year: Jaguars, Chargers, Packers, Steelers, Ravens
Longest winning streak: Jaguars (10 straight games correct)
Longest losing streak: Washington (Four straight games incorrect)
Also, there are no teams I've been worse at picking than the Falcons (5-8) and Cardinals (5-8). I'm guessing this is because I don't appreciate birds enough. Starting today, I vow to appreciate birds more.
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 14: 11-5
SU overall: 134-71-1
Against the spread in Week 14: 8-8
ATS overall: 97-106-3
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably in the bathroom, but he should be out soon.
