We trusted the Steelers last week and paid dearly for it, dropping the Teaser of the Week to 7-6-1 on the season. If you were fortunate enough to skip over that selection you probably cashed your teasers, as the next five teams in our rankings all hit. So let's get back to building a winner this week.
That winner is going to include the Packers, who at -8.5 can be teased through three and seven and leave us only needing them to win by a field goal to cover. Green Bay's offense has been unstoppable of late, piling up at least 30 points in four straight games and 10 times overall this season to rank first in points scored and points per drive. The defense has been a little more uneven, and that could be a problem against a Carolina offense that has been above average this season. But against that Panthers defense? Aaron Rodgers and Co. can name their score. Trust the Packers to take care of business at home.
I've done the legwork of going through all the lines as of Tuesday night and identifying the best teasing opportunities. Below, I've ranked all the sides I think are in play for teasers this week, considering only the standard six-point teasers. You can take the top two options and put them together for my Teaser of the Week, or you can be bold and try and hit a bigger payout.
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Ranking teaser options
We talked about the Packers above, but the Colts are my No. 1 team this week even in a divisional matchup, and that's because of the quality of their opponent. While Deshaun Watson can catch lightning in a bottle in any game, he doesn't have much around him to work with, as the Texans are losing players on both sides of the ball virtually every week. The Colts are rounding into form, with T.Y. Hilton and Jonathan Taylor in the midst of a hot stretch, and they should pick up a win in this game.
2. Packers -2.5 vs. Panthers
The last time the Packers didn't win by at least a field goal at home in a non-divisional game? All the way back in September 2019 when the Eagles got their number in a Thursday night matchup. I can't see the Panthers defense slowing down this prolific offense, especially with the Packers needing to keep winning to sew up the one and only bye as a No. 1 seed.
We should probably discount the Cowboys' "blowout" win over the Bengals when the defense did all the heavy lifting on the scoreboard, so this one could be a little more dangerous than we'd like. But should the 49ers be favored on the road against anyone right now? Should they especially be favored against anyone when they're effectively playing a third straight road game after holing up in Arizona for the past two weeks? This is less a confident play on the Cowboys than it is a fade on what has to be a tired 49ers team that is basically out of the playoff race.
This Raiders team can't play a lick of defense, so no lead is safe if their opponent has any type of talent at quarterback. And the Chargers definitely qualify there, as Justin Herbert should be able to carve up this Vegas defense in prime time. Even if the Chargers are down late, this teaser will be drawing live until the clock hits all zeroes.
I certainly think the Dolphins could roll here if they're healthy on the defensive side of the ball, so I'm a little cautious teasing the Pats even at a great number. But the Pats want to run the ball as much as possible on offense, which lines up well with Miami's defensive weakness. So the matchup advantage should allow them to stay close.
This one feels like it should be higher, but you know one team has to ruin a Bills-Packers teaser on Saturday, and it feels like the Broncos are the friskier underdog at home with Drew Lock coming off a nice win over the Panthers on the road. The Bills could also get caught looking ahead a bit with a chance to sweep the Patriots on deck.
Lines to avoid teasing
I don't care who plays quarterback for Detroit, I don't feel comfortable holding the Titans in a teaser if I need them to maintain any type of lead of more than a field goal with that defense.
Seahawks at Washington (-5.5)
Tough to tease the Seahawks down with how their recent non-Jets performances have done, but also tough to tease Washington up not fully trusting their offense even after four straight wins, including the last three on the road.
It's not worth teasing the Bears to me, knowing that Mitchell Trubisky can turn into a pumpkin at any moment.
The Ravens are probably a safe teaser team, but there's not a ton of value in going from 14 to eight here, so they're a pass this week.
Buccaneers (-6) at Falcons
The Bucs instantly look like a solid teaser team with that -6 number as we would only need them to win, but do you really trust them after a fake, kicking-hijinks-related blowout to go on the road and beat a divisional opponent? I'm staying far away from this one.
Eagles at Cardinals (-6)
Another made-to-tease line, but the Eagles defense has played really well in recent weeks and Jalen Hurts gave the offense an identity that could help them go in and pull off another upset victory here.
No value in teasing the Rams down, and no way we're putting the Jets in a teaser.
I want no part of teasing against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, even against another great team with an excellent defense coming off a loss. Couldn't you see the Chiefs being up 10 at halftime and you're wondering why you're stuck needing a Taysom Hill rally?
Difficult to trust teasing the Giants after that absolute beatdown of Daniel Jones last week. They could certainly win this game with how they've played in recent weeks, but this could also be a bloodbath if the QB isn't right for the home team.
Steelers (-13) at Bengals
Absolutely cannot tease the Steelers with how poorly they're playing right now, and same goes for teasing a Bengals offense with a backup quarterback against this Steelers defense, even if it's missing a few pieces.