Two weeks left in the regular season. How did we get here so quickly? However it happened, we've only got a few weeks left of football featuring all 32 NFL teams. Pretty soon we'll only be able to wager on the playoffs. But I want to close strong in these best bets after reeling off a 9-1 record in the last two weeks.
I'm veering away from strictly taking underdogs in these games, because I think it's too tough to just take some of them in the SuperContest and feel 100 percent confident about their motivation, although I do have an underdog moneyline parlay at the bottom.
Motivation is key, by the way, and there should be some teams who are extremely motivated to win these games against opponents that might have packed it in. Let's stay warm.
If you want picks against the spread for every single game on the slate, make sure and check out the Pick Six Podcast, where myself, Nick Kostos (HE'S BACK), Pete Prisco and R.J. White break down every single game against the spread for the Week 16 games. You can subscribe to that podcast here or you can listen below while you check out my best bets.
Chargers -4.5 vs. Ravens
A little worried everyone will be on L.A. here, but my reason for liking the Chargers is pretty simple: they're not the rest of the competition the new-look Ravens have faced this year. Since their bye, when Baltimore inserted Lamar Jackson into the starting lineup at quarterback, look at the defenses the Ravens have faced compared to the Chargers:
| Team | Rush Yards/Game (Rank) | Rush Yards/Att. (Rank) | Def. DVOA Rank | Rush Def. DVOA Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CIN | 142.4 (29th) | 4.8 (T-23rd) | 28th | 26th |
OAK | 146.4 (32nd) | 4.8 (T-23rd) | 30th | 27th |
ATL | 126.1 (25th) | 4.9 (T-27th) | 32nd | 30th |
KC | 126.9 (26th) | 5.0 (T-30th) | 27th | 32nd |
TB | 128.1 (27th) | 4.8 (T-23rd) | 29th | 31st |
LAC | 103.7 (9th) | 4.3 (T-12th) | 12th | 18th |
What should be obvious is the Chargers are substantially better than the last five teams the Ravens played on defense. Granted, those teams are worse now against the run from a statistical standpoint because of playing the Ravens, but we knew they were bad before the played Baltimore. What's kind of astounding is the Ravens drew five of the worst seven rush defenses by DVOA in five consecutive weeks without playing the same team twice. The Chargers are not an elite team in terms of stopping the run, but they have a healthy Joey Bosa now and Derwin James changes how they play the run. Since Bosa returned, the Chargers have given up just an average of 82.8 rushing yards per game in their four matchups. If Philip Rivers can avoid big turnovers early, the Chargers can build a lead and really put the Ravens in a bad spot, forcing them to throw to come from behind. That's not going to work for this offense.
Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Chiefs
When will people understand that Russell Wilson is just a guy who gets up in the biggest spots? He's not the Michael Jordan of football or anything, but Wilson should qualify in the same vein as MJ, Brett Favre and any other people who slot into "don't bet against them" in a primetime game. This is particularly true when it comes to home games for the Seahawks quarterback. Wilson, after covering against the Vikings at home two weeks ago, is 11-3-1 against the spread in primetime games at home. He's 13-2 straight up in those games. Wilson as an underdog is a smaller sample, but he is 2-1 straight up in those games, with the only loss coming last year against the Falcons in late November. The Seahawks have the type of attack -- a ground-and-pound game that eats up clock -- to keep the Chiefs offense off the field and a good enough defense to stymie Patrick Mahomes once or twice. Seahawks win outright.
Dolphins (-4) vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars have not been a very good team all season long -- that win over the Patriots in September feels like a million years ago -- and they have been a very bad team on the road this year. Against the spread they're just 1-4-1, losing those games on average by 11.8 points and failing to cover by 11.3 points. This is a small line, but it's not a surprisingly small line: the Dolphins just got blown out last week by the Vikings and the Jaguars, in theory, have a good defense. I mean, they have the players, but they haven't performed well at all away from Jacksonville. The Jaguars have one road win this year (Week 1 against the Giants) and have given up an average of 374 yards per game on the road (versus 276.6 at home) and an average of 28 points per game on the road (versus 18.8 at home). Their season is over, Cody Kessler just threw for 57 passing yards in a home loss to a Josh Johnson-led Redskins team, they are all headed to Miami and probably will appreciate a week to get away. Leonard Fournette is coming out and openly saying he should be in better shape. It's hard not to fade this team, especially when the Dolphins have to win if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Panthers (+3.5) vs. Falcons
Everyone is off the Panthers bandwagon and with good reason. Carolina just lost its sixth straight game and is shutting down Cam Newton for the season. However ... are we sure that Taylor Heinicke is worse than Newton was for the last two or three games? That's not to prop up Heinicke or to rip Cam at all. Newton was just so injured he couldn't throw more than 10 yards down the field with any semblance of accuracy. Cam laid it all on the line to try and help the Panthers salvage this season, but you can only do so much with a damaged throwing shoulder when you're a quarterback in the NFL. Heinicke might also be biasing this pick a little bit with his statements about his dad during his recent press conference.
.@Taylor_Heinicke’s dad passed away his freshman year of college. With his first career start in the NFL, he imagines his dad would be proud 💙 pic.twitter.com/lchmecqLJo
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) December 20, 2018
I'm not crying. You're crying. I would expect the young man might have some emotions come Sunday. Maybe the game is too big for him, but I trust Norv Turner to craft a gameplan that allows Heinicke to heavily utilize Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, much in the same way the Panthers did for Cam earlier this season. Atlanta's defense is awful; don't be fooled by how they played against the Cardinals, who are the worst team in football. Additionally, there is increasing buzz that Julio Jones won't play against Carolina. It makes sense to sit him out because the Falcons are done for the season and Calvin Ridley can handle his role fine, but that puts a pretty big damper on the explosiveness of Atlanta's offense. Thomas Davis and Ryan Kalil might be playing their final home games as Carolina Panthers. This team is still technically alive for the postseason and needs to rally to save Ron Rivera's job. I think this will be an inspired Panthers squad at home one more time.
Vikings (-5.5) at Lions
Lot of points to lay on a road divisional game here, but the Lions are toast at this point. They have scored more than 20 points once since November and Matthew Stafford has been a shell of himself since Detroit traded Golden Tate. Over the last five games he's completing 63 percent of his passes but is averaging barely over 200 yards per game while throwing six touchdowns and six interceptions in that span. How on Earth are the Lions scoring against the Vikings, an angry defense trying to make sure this team makes it to the playoffs? Minnesota is not as dangerous away from home and is just 3-4 against the spread. I'm a little worried that people will ride this road chalk team because of how good they looked against the Dolphins, but there's a good reason to ride them: this new offense under Kevin Stefanski perfectly caters to Kirk Cousins' skill-set. Cousins is great at play action and the Lions have given up eight play action touchdowns this season. Their run defense is depleted and this slates out as another monster game for Dalvin Cook.
Underdog Moneyline Parlay of the Week
It's Christmas, and that means you need extra dough. So let's put together a moneyline parlay that can win you some cash if you're willing to take some risk. We're going to include two of the teams above, both of whom I believe can surprise people and win.
This is a four-team parlay that will pay out 25-1. Put $25 on it and it'll even sort of Christmas themed.
Panthers to win (+130)
Jets to win (+125)
Seahawks to win (+120)
Raiders to win (+130)
Toss those four home underdogs into a parlay with all of them needing to win straight up, throw $25 on it and you'll get paid out $629 if it hits (according to the current odds on Sportsbook.ag). The best part is it's got multiple primetime spots in it, including the Christmas Eve matchup between the Raiders and Broncos. Get the first three and tell your significant other you've got $600 riding on the Raiders straight up and they will let you watch.
